- Is It Too Late To Consider Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) After 1-Year 139% Surge?
May 10, 2026
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If you are wondering whether Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is attractively priced after its recent run, the next sections will help break down what the current share price might be implying. The stock last closed at US$414.15, with returns of 4.6% over 7 days, 19.9% over 30 days, 29.6% year to date and 138.6% over 1 year, plus very large gains over 3 and 5 years. Recent headlines have focused on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's central role in global chip supply and its position in high performance computing and AI related demand. At the same time, coverage has highlighted ongoing geopolitical attention on the semiconductor sector, which many investors are factoring into their risk and valuation views. The company's current valuation score is 3 out of 6. The next part of this article will walk through what different valuation methods suggest about that price tag today and then finish with a way to put those numbers in a broader context.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing delivered 138.6% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Semiconductor industry.
Approach 1: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today’s value to estimate what the stock might be worth right now.
For Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is NT$941,727.04m. Analyst and extrapolated estimates suggest annual free cash flow in the 10 year projection period reaching NT$4,001,965.21m, with interim projected figures such as NT$1,440,142.24m in 2026 and NT$2,858,568.79m in 2029, all in NT$ terms.
Discounting these future NT$ cash flows back to today gives an estimated intrinsic value of US$219.85 per share under this model, compared with the recent share price of US$414.15. That gap implies the stock is 88.4% overvalued on this specific DCF set of assumptions.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing may be overvalued by 88.4%. Discover 51 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.TSM Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.
Approach 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Price vs Earnings
For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful way to gauge how much you are paying for each dollar of current earnings. It links directly to what the business is generating today, which many investors find easier to relate to than long range cash flow estimates.
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What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/E will usually reflect how fast earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are perceived to be. Higher growth and lower perceived risk often support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher perceived risk tend to align with a lower P/E.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing currently trades on a P/E of 31.39x. That sits below the Semiconductor industry average P/E of 59.42x and a peer average of 71.57x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is 48.34x, which is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be given factors such as its earnings profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk characteristics.
This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry because it is tailored to the company’s own fundamentals rather than relying on broad group averages. Comparing 31.39x with the Fair Ratio of 48.34x suggests the stock may be undervalued on this metric.
Result: UNDERVALUEDNYSE:TSM P/E Ratio as at May 2026
P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 18 top founder-led companies.
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation than a single P/E or DCF output. That approach is to use Narratives, which let you attach a simple story about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to the numbers you believe in, such as fair value, future revenue, earnings and margins.
A Narrative takes your view of the company, links it to an explicit financial forecast, then ties that forecast to a fair value that you can compare directly with today’s price. This way, you are always working from a joined up picture rather than scattered metrics.
This is built into Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions of investors can set up Narratives, see a live fair value for the stock and quickly check whether their story points toward the stock being above or below their own estimate.
Narratives also refresh as new information arrives. If Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing posts earnings or there is important news about AI chip demand or geopolitical risk, the assumptions and fair value in that Narrative update automatically instead of sitting frozen in an old spreadsheet.
For example, one Narrative on the Community page currently sets Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s fair value at about US$55 per ADR, while another puts it around US$450, and a third at roughly US$381. This shows how different investors can look at the same company, plug in very different assumptions about AI demand, margins or risk, and end up with very different conclusions about whether today’s US$414.15 price is above or below what they are willing to pay.
For Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Narratives:
🐂 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Bull Case
Fair value in this bullish Narrative: US$629.70 per ADR.
Implied discount to this fair value: around 34% based on the recent US$414.15 price.
Revenue growth assumption: 26%.
Frames TSMC as a long term compounder tied to AI chips, 5G, IoT and automotive demand, with multiple end markets expected to support revenue over the next decade. Assumes margins stay healthy, supported by ongoing R&D and advanced process nodes, while also highlighting the need to watch competition, costs and market share. Flags key risks such as the durability of AI chip demand, geopolitical uncertainty around Taiwan and customer concentration with Apple.
🐻 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Bear Case
Fair value in this more cautious Narrative: US$381.00 per ADR.
Implied premium to this fair value: around 9% based on the recent US$414.15 price.
Revenue growth assumption: 70.28%.
Emphasises TSMC's central role in advanced chips and packaging, with high margins, strong cash generation and very large capital expenditure plans. Stresses that concentration in Taiwan, higher overseas manufacturing costs and potential margin dilution mean investors may want a wide margin of safety. Sets out scenarios where supply disruption, loss of key customers or new computing technologies could materially challenge the current valuation.
These two Narratives sit on the same company and the same share price, yet they anchor on very different fair values and risk tolerances. This contrast can help you decide which story, and which assumptions, are closer to your own view.
To go deeper into how other investors are framing growth, risks and fair value, you can review the full set of Narratives and supporting data for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing on Simply Wall St, then adjust the assumptions to match your own investment style.
Do you think there's more to the story for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!NYSE:TSM 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include TSM.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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- Is Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Among the Best AI Stocks to Buy According to Billionaire Ken Griffin?
Apr 25, 2026
Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) is one of the
8 Best AI Stocks to Buy According to Billionaire Ken Griffin.
On April 22, 2026, Reuters reported that Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) is lobbying Congress to tighten export controls on chipmaking equipment used by Chinese competitors, quoting sources familiar. Lawmakers cleared the MATCH Act, which seeks to close regulatory gaps as well as compel foreign toolmakers to comply with US restrictions. The measure targets Chinese firms like Yangtze Memory Technologies, ChangXin Memory Technologies, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp.
Sources said Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) urged more action to prevent China’s memory ambitions, presenting the matter as national security. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra had a meeting with House and Senate panels behind closed doors.Is Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Among the Best AI Stocks to Buy According to Billionaire Ken Griffin?
The proposal would limit additional equipment, including DUV immersion machines, and require licensing for tool servicing at specific sites. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dominate memory markets, while Chinese players develop despite existing restrictions.
Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) provides innovative memory and storage solutions. It operates in four segments: Compute and Networking Business Unit, Mobile Business Unit, Embedded Business Unit, and Storage Business Unit.
While we acknowledge the potential of MU as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.
READ NEXT: 33 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and Cathie Wood 2026 Portfolio: 10 Best Stocks to Buy.
Disclosure: None. Follow Insider Monkey on Google News.
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- Is It Too Late To Consider TSMC (NYSE:TSM) After Its Strong Share Price Run
Apr 24, 2026
Get insights on thousands of stocks from the global community of over 7 million individual investors at Simply Wall St.
Are you wondering if Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's share price still offers value after a strong run, or if you might be late to the story? The stock last closed at US$402.46, with returns of 8.6% over 7 days, 15.7% over 30 days, 25.9% year to date, 146.1% over 1 year and 267.8% over 5 years, giving plenty of price action for investors to assess. Recent coverage has focused on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's role at the center of global chip supply and its importance to high performance computing and AI hardware. This continues to keep the company in the spotlight and provides useful context as you weigh whether the current price still lines up with what the underlying business may be worth. Simply Wall St assigns Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing a valuation score of 3 out of 6. Next up is a closer look at how different valuation methods assess the stock and how one more holistic approach at the end of this article may help you tie those signals together.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing delivered 146.1% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Semiconductor industry.
Approach 1: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to a present value. It focuses on cash the business could generate for shareholders rather than accounting earnings.
For Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flow projections in NT$. The latest twelve month free cash flow is NT$941,727.04m. Analysts provide explicit forecasts for several years, and Simply Wall St then extrapolates further. Under this projection path, the projected free cash flow in 2035 is about NT$3,982,543.84m, or roughly NT$3.98b.
Bringing all those projected cash flows back to today produces an estimated intrinsic value of US$238.17 per share under this DCF model. Compared with the recent share price of US$402.46, the output implies Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is about 69.0% overvalued on this cash flow basis.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing may be overvalued by 69.0%. Discover 55 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.TSM Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.
Story Continues
Approach 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Price vs Earnings
For a profitable company like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. A higher P/E often reflects higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk, while a lower P/E can point to lower growth expectations or higher perceived risk.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing currently trades on a P/E of 29.69x. This sits below the Semiconductor industry average P/E of 48.26x and below the peer group average of 69.59x. On face value, that suggests the stock is priced more conservatively than many peers.
Simply Wall St also provides a Fair Ratio of 41.31x, which is an estimate of what a more appropriate P/E might be after considering factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, size, industry positioning and specific risks. This Fair Ratio can be more useful than a simple comparison with peers or the industry because it adjusts for those company specific characteristics rather than assuming all semiconductor stocks deserve similar multiples.
Comparing the current P/E of 29.69x with the Fair Ratio of 41.31x implies Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing trades below this adjusted benchmark, which indicates the shares may be undervalued on this metric.
Result: UNDERVALUEDNYSE:TSM P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026
P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 19 top founder-led companies.
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so this is where Narratives come in as a simple way for you to attach a clear story to the numbers behind Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.
A Narrative on Simply Wall St is your own structured view of the company, where you set assumptions for fair value, future revenue, earnings and margins, then explain the story that sits behind those numbers in plain language.
This links three pieces together in one place: the business story you believe, the financial forecast that follows from that story, and the fair value you think lines up with those forecasts.
Narratives are available on Simply Wall St’s Community page, are designed to be easy to set up and adjust, and are already used by investors who want a clearer way to organise their thinking.
Once you have a Narrative in place, you can compare your fair value estimate to the current share price to help decide whether the stock currently looks expensive or cheap relative to the story you are working with, which can then inform when you might consider buying or selling.
Because Narratives are refreshed when new information such as earnings, news or updated forecasts is available, they do not stay static and can evolve as the facts about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing change.
For example, one investor on Simply Wall St uses assumptions that lead to a fair value of about US$118 per share for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, while another uses more optimistic inputs and arrives at about US$635, and those very different numbers reflect their different stories about future AI demand, geopolitical risk and profitability, all captured and tracked through their Narratives.
For Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing however we'll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Narratives:
🐂 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Bull Case
Fair value: US$629.70 per share
Implied valuation gap versus the last close: about 36.1% below this fair value
Revenue growth assumption: 26.0%
Focuses on long term demand for semiconductors tied to AI, IoT, 5G and automotive chips, with TSMC positioned as a major supplier across these areas. Assumes healthy margins supported by advanced process technology, ongoing R&D and scale, while acknowledging competition and cost control as key variables. Highlights risks around the durability of AI chip demand, geopolitical uncertainty around Taiwan and customer concentration, especially with Apple.
🐻 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Bear Case
Fair value: US$381.00 per ADR
Implied valuation gap versus the last close: about 5.6% above this fair value
Revenue growth assumption: 70.28%
Emphasises TSMC's central role in leading edge chip manufacturing and advanced packaging, supported by large capital spending and high margins. Frames geopolitical risk around Taiwan and the cost of building overseas fabs as key factors that require a substantial margin of safety for investors. Outlines scenario based DCF work that produces bear, base and bull fair values, with a view that the current price leaves only a modest discount to the base case.
If you want to see how other investors are weighing these kinds of trade offs, including different revenue, margin and valuation assumptions, See what the community is saying about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.
From here, it comes down to how comfortable you are with the mix of growth assumptions, concentration risk and valuation. Narratives give you a way to line those views up with the current share price and decide whether Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing fits the role you want it to play in your portfolio.
Do you think there's more to the story for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!NYSE:TSM 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include TSM.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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- Jim Cramer Isn’t Worried About Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s (TSM) Share Price Weakness
Apr 23, 2026
We recently shared Jim Cramer Rubbished Circular AI Deals & Commented On These 18 Stocks. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) is one of the stocks discussed by Jim Cramer.
Cramer discussed contract chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) in detail in his tweets and in his morning appearance after the firm reported its first quarter earnings report. The shares are up by 143% over the past year and by 15% year-to-date. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM)’s earnings saw the firm post NT$1.134 trillion in revenue and NT$572 billion in net income. The results saw the firm beat analyst estimates of NT$1.127 trillion and NT$543 billion. Needham discussed Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) following the earnings as it raised the share price target to $480 from $410 and kept a Buy rating on the stock. Bank of America raised the share price target to NT$2,360 from NT$2,530 and kept a Buy rating on April 13th. BofA remarked that it expected Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) to grow revenue by 7% to 9% sequentially in the second quarter of 2026. As the shares dipped following the earnings, Cramer didn’t hold back with his remarks:
“They were shorting without even listening to the [omitted] call. They were betting against the company. . .without even listening to the call. Well that just showed, this is what we’re up against.
“Taiwan Semi’s great quarter. And you can see the stock is down, don’t worry about it, it’s absolutely fabulous. But they mention at one point, they say, someone asked about, is memory price really starting to hurt the business? Because it’s up, up, up, up, up. And you know, the executive says. . .memory price hikes definitely have had an impact but we see a little bit softer market. Little bit softer market? We’ve taken Micron up and up and up, you’re telling me there could be a little bit softer market? So you will see those stocks, and that’s when we think about that, even though Seagate is disk, even though we know Western Dig is disk, we know Sandisk is disk, you’re going these stocks down just because of that one line.”Jim Cramer Isn't Worried About Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's (TSM) Share Price Weakness
While we acknowledge the potential of TSM as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.
Story Continues
READ NEXT: 33 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and Cathie Wood 2026 Portfolio: 10 Best Stocks to Buy.
Disclosure: None. Follow Insider Monkey on Google News.
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- Micron pushes US Congress to crack down on chip tool sales to Chinese rivals, sources say
Apr 22, 2026
By Karen Freifeld
April 22(Reuters) - Micron Technology, the largest U.S. memory chipmaker, is a driving force pushing the U.S. Congress to pass legislation that would put new export restrictions on equipment its Chinese competitors use to make their chips, according to people familiar with the matter.
A U.S. House of Representatives panel on Wednesday is set to vote on the "MATCH Act," a bill designed to close gaps in restrictions on chipmaking equipment. It would also pressure foreign companies that sell equipment to Chinese chipmaking facilities to align with export curbs on U.S. companies like Lam Research and Applied Materials.
The bill targets facilities operated by China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC), and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, as well as critical technology countrywide.
Micron has told lawmakers that Washington needs to do more to inhibit Chinese development in the memory market, according to people familiar with the matter. They said increased U.S. action is necessary to prevent China from dominating memory chip manufacturing the way it has the solar energy industry and other sectors, and is a national security issue.
Micron did not respond to requests for comment. CXMT, YMTC and SMIC did not respond to requests for comment.
Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix now dominate the memory market, with Micron the No. 3 maker and sole major U.S. supplier.
But YMTC and CXMT are growing fast, despite curbs on exports to them imposed by the U.S. Commerce Department.
YMTC has been on a restricted trade list since 2022. CXMT's advanced facilities have been subject to U.S. export curbs.
The bill as now drafted would restrict more equipment from going to China -- including DUV immersion machines countrywide, a market dominated by Netherlands' ASML -- and legislate how to impose restrictions if diplomacy fails.
It also would require a license for ASML and other foreign companies to service equipment at covered facilities.
Micron representatives have engaged with lawmakers throughout the drafting process, sources said. They added that about a month ago, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra held a closed-door roundtable with members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
He held a similar roundtable last month with Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Micron, based in Boise, Idaho, is building a megafacility in New York. Other companies in the industry are also lobbying on the bill, said one source, citing Tokyo Electron and U.S. toolmakers Lam Research, Applied Materials and KLA, who lose sales from export controls.
Story Continues
This month, the Commerce Department also posted photos of ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet meeting with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
The MATCH Act is only one of many bills tied to export controls to be voted on Wednesday by the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Others target the Commerce Department's licensing, interagency process, Entity List, enforcement, and penalties.
A House foreign affairs panel staffer touted the slate as the biggest legislative push in the sphere since the Export Control Reform Act of 2018.
Kate Koren, who this year left the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security, which oversees export controls, said the bureau's leadership has not been doing its job.
"It seems there's a pretty strong bipartisan consensus that BIS has not really been functioning as it should be over the past year," said Koren, now at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
As Reuters has reported, the bureau has been in turmoil and held off new restrictions during a detente with China tied to trade talks.
A BIS spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
If the MATCH Act and other bills advance on Wednesday, it is only one step toward their potentially becoming law. A companion bill has been introduced in the Senate and may eventually be included as an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act.
(Reporting by Karen Freifeld; editing by Chris Sanders and David Gregorio)
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- Micron pushes US Congress to crack down on chip tool sales to Chinese rivals, sources say
Apr 22, 2026
By Karen Freifeld
April 22(Reuters) - Micron Technology, the largest U.S. memory chipmaker, is a driving force pushing the U.S. Congress to pass legislation that would put new export restrictions on equipment its Chinese competitors use to make their chips, according to people familiar with the matter.
A U.S. House of Representatives panel on Wednesday is set to vote on the "MATCH Act," a bill designed to close gaps in restrictions on chipmaking equipment. It would also pressure foreign companies that sell equipment to Chinese chipmaking facilities to align with export curbs on U.S. companies like Lam Research and Applied Materials.
The bill targets facilities operated by China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC), and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, as well as critical technology countrywide.
Micron has told lawmakers that Washington needs to do more to inhibit Chinese development in the memory market, according to people familiar with the matter. They said increased U.S. action is necessary to prevent China from dominating memory chip manufacturing the way it has the solar energy industry and other sectors, and is a national security issue.
Micron did not respond to requests for comment. CXMT, YMTC and SMIC did not respond to requests for comment.
Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix now dominate the memory market, with Micron the No. 3 maker and sole major U.S. supplier.
But YMTC and CXMT are growing fast, despite curbs on exports to them imposed by the U.S. Commerce Department.
YMTC has been on a restricted trade list since 2022. CXMT's advanced facilities have been subject to U.S. export curbs.
The bill as now drafted would restrict more equipment from going to China -- including DUV immersion machines countrywide, a market dominated by Netherlands' ASML -- and legislate how to impose restrictions if diplomacy fails.
It also would require a license for ASML and other foreign companies to service equipment at covered facilities.
Micron representatives have engaged with lawmakers throughout the drafting process, sources said. They added that about a month ago, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra held a closed-door roundtable with members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
He held a similar roundtable last month with Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Micron, based in Boise, Idaho, is building a megafacility in New York. Other companies in the industry are also lobbying on the bill, said one source, citing Tokyo Electron and U.S. toolmakers Lam Research, Applied Materials and KLA, who lose sales from export controls.
Story Continues
This month, the Commerce Department also posted photos of ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet meeting with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
The MATCH Act is only one of many bills tied to export controls to be voted on Wednesday by the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Others target the Commerce Department's licensing, interagency process, Entity List, enforcement, and penalties.
A House foreign affairs panel staffer touted the slate as the biggest legislative push in the sphere since the Export Control Reform Act of 2018.
Kate Koren, who this year left the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security, which oversees export controls, said the bureau's leadership has not been doing its job.
"It seems there's a pretty strong bipartisan consensus that BIS has not really been functioning as it should be over the past year," said Koren, now at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
As Reuters has reported, the bureau has been in turmoil and held off new restrictions during a detente with China tied to trade talks.
A BIS spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
If the MATCH Act and other bills advance on Wednesday, it is only one step toward their potentially becoming law. A companion bill has been introduced in the Senate and may eventually be included as an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act.
(Reporting by Karen Freifeld; editing by Chris Sanders and David Gregorio)
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- TSMC: Despite Post-Earnings Fall, Signs of AI Weakness are Scant
Apr 18, 2026
TSMC logo displayed on a glowing semiconductor wafer surrounded by robotic arms in a stylized factory setting.
Key Points
TSMC's latest earnings report saw the company post top and bottom line beats, while 2026 guidance saw an upward revision The company noted its "extremely robust" demand and is pushing its CapEx forecast up While the firm acknowledged multiple gross margin headwinds, these are features rather than bugs Interested in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.? Here are five stocks we like better.
For another quarter in a row, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s (NYSE: TSM) earnings showed no signs of artificial intelligence (AI) buildout slowing down. Numbers during the quarter were very robust, and the company issued a small but meaningful guidance increase. Looking ahead, TSMC continues to be among the world’s most well-positioned companies, benefiting from unyielding AI demand.
TSMC Posts Profit Beat, Forecasts More Than 30% Growth in 2026
In Q1 2026, TSMC reported revenues of $35.9 billion, equating to a year-over-year (YOY) growth rate of just under 41%. Notably, this marked the company’s fastest YOY growth since Q2 2025. TSMC’s revenue slightly beat expectations, with analysts calling for sales near $35.5 billion.
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The company also impressed on the bottom line, with its diluted earnings per American Depository Receipt (ADR) coming in at $3.49. The figure rose by nearly 65% YOY, and solidly beat estimates of $3.26.
Two key factors played a significant role in TSMC’s meaningful bottom-line beat. First off, the firm’s gross margin of 66.2% was better than expected. Management forecasted the figure to come in at 66%. Secondly, operating margin was stronger than expected at 58.1%, compared to guidance of 56%.
→ TSMC: Despite Post-Earnings Fall, Signs of AI Weakness are Scant
Guidance for Q2 was a similar story. Next quarter, TSMC projects sales between $39 billion and $40.2 billion, or $39.6 billion at the midpoint. This midpoint number implies YOY growth of 32% and exceeded expectations of $38.09 billion. The company also slightly upgraded its full-year guidance, now expecting revenue to rise by over 30% YOY in U.S. dollar terms. Last quarter, the company forecasted full-year growth “close to 30%."
TSMC Sees Strong Demand Now, and in the Future
When it comes to the broader AI landscape, TSMC made several encouraging statements. Importantly, the firm said, "AI-related demand continued to be extremely robust.” The shift from generative AI to agentic AI is “leading to another step up in the amount of tokens being consumed." When users interact with AI, they consume "tokens," a unit of measurement for AI demand. More token consumption bleeds down into increased demand for TSMC’s chips.
Story Continues
→ JBHT Burns Rubber, Hits the Highway to a $300 Price Tag
The company also said it expects its 2026 capital expenditures (CapEx) to be at the high end of its $52 billion to $56 billion range. Higher CapEx signals stronger long-term demand, as the company looks to build new facilities and upgrade current ones to serve its customers. Notably, when asked why the company expects its CapEx to trend up, CEO C.C. Wei had a frank response.
He said, “A very simple answer is, the demand are very robust, especially from the [high performance computing] and AI applications.”
TSMC added that its CapEx over the next three years will be “significantly higher” than its $101 billion in CapEx over the past three years. This comes from the company’s “strong conviction in the AI megatrend."
TSMC Details Expected and Necessary Gross Margin Dilutions
Despite very strong AI demand, TSMC detailed some headwinds its business is facing. In 2026, the company expects the ramp-up of its N2 manufacturing node process to create a 2% to 3% drag on its gross margin.
However, this is far from out of the ordinary when new nodes ramp up. New nodes come with higher costs initially, and yields on wafers are lower as the company works to nail down execution. However, longer-term, new nodes tend to boost profitability, as they rely on more advanced technology.
The company also says the ramp of its non-Taiwanese fabrication sites will dilute gross margins by 2% to 3% over the next few years. This effect will increase to 3% to 4% later on. While not ideal, this was already well known. Furthermore, overseas expansions are somewhat of a necessary evil for the company. By investing billions into U.S. manufacturing sites, the firm has positioned itself to mitigate the risk of potential tariffs. Additionally, diversifying its supply chain helps reduce the geographic risk of having all its facilities in Taiwan.
The Chinese government has made it known that it does not recognize Taiwan’s independence. Serious risks include a scenario where China could look to take control of the island, greatly threatening TSMC’s operations. Still, such an action would likely trigger a response from the U.S. government due to the company’s strategic importance to the global economy. This is a key deterrent that further emphasizes the importance of TSMC having a strong relationship with the United States.
Needham Eyes Over 30% Gain After TSMC’s Impressive Report
After releasing its results, TSMC shares fell moderately by 3%. Nonetheless, it's difficult to identify any glaring weaknesses in the company’s report. In fact, the company’s slight 2026 guidance increase and strong statements about AI demand are clear positive signs.
Notably, analysts at Needham and Company significantly raised their price target to $480. This is a 15% increase and a figure that implied over 30% upside in shares at the time of the rating.
The article "TSMC: Despite Post-Earnings Fall, Signs of AI Weakness are Scant" was originally published by MarketBeat.
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- Is It Too Late To Consider Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TWSE:2330) After Its 142% One-Year Surge?
Apr 17, 2026
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Investors may be wondering whether Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's share price still offers value after a strong run, or if most of the potential upside is already reflected. The stock last closed at NT$2,030, with reported returns of 1.5% over 7 days, 6.6% over 30 days, 28.1% year to date, 142.4% over 1 year, 318.3% over 3 years and 269.8% over 5 years. Recent headlines have focused on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's central role in global chip supply and on investor interest in semiconductor capacity and technology. These themes help explain why the stock's performance and risk profile are in such close focus for many investors. Simply Wall St currently assigns Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing a valuation score of 4 out of 6. The sections that follow compare different valuation approaches and conclude with a broader way to think about what this score may mean for you.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing delivered 142.4% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Semiconductor industry.
Approach 1: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to today’s value. It is essentially asking what all those future NT$ cash flows are worth in today’s money.
For Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the latest reported free cash flow is around NT$941.7b. Analysts and model estimates project free cash flow rising to around NT$3,664.0b in 2035, with interim projections such as NT$1,412.8b in 2026 and NT$2,858.6b in 2029. Simply Wall St uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, where analyst forecasts are used for the earlier years and later years are extrapolated.
Discounting all those projected NT$ cash flows back to today gives an estimated intrinsic value of about NT$1,409.24 per share. Compared with the recent share price of NT$2,030, the model suggests the stock is around 44.0% above this estimate. This points to a rich valuation based on this DCF alone.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing may be overvalued by 44.0%. Discover 234 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.2330 Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.
Story Continues
Approach 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Price vs Earnings
For established, profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a common way to check how much you are paying for each unit of earnings. It ties the share price directly to profits, which many investors use as a simple anchor when comparing alternatives.
What counts as a "normal" P/E generally reflects how the market views a company’s growth prospects and risks. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually points to a lower P/E.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing currently trades on a P/E of 27.6x. This sits below the Semiconductor industry average of 42.1x and below the broader peer group average of 55.2x. Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 42.7x, which is the P/E level that might be expected given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and risk profile.
The Fair Ratio is designed to be more tailored than a simple peer or industry comparison, because it adjusts for the company’s specific fundamentals rather than treating all semiconductor stocks as identical. On this basis, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s actual P/E is well under the Fair Ratio of 42.7x.
Result: UNDERVALUEDTWSE:2330 P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation. Narratives are that upgrade, because they let you attach a clear story about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, including your view on future revenue, earnings, margins and a fair value, to the hard numbers you see on screen.
A Narrative on Simply Wall St links three pieces together: the company story you believe, the financial forecast that follows from that story, and the fair value that drops out of those assumptions. The platform makes this easy to use on the Community page that is already used by millions of investors.
Once you pick or build a Narrative, you can compare its Fair Value to the current share price to help you decide whether Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing looks expensive or cheap to you. Because Narratives update automatically when new news, earnings or forecasts are added, your view does not go stale the moment the market moves.
For example, one Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Narrative with a Fair Value around NT$2,010.85 might argue the company is undervalued as critical infrastructure, while another with a Fair Value closer to NT$961.09 leans on overseas margin pressure and geopolitical risks. Your own decision sits in choosing which story and Fair Value feel more realistic for you.
For Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, here are previews of two leading Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Narratives:
🐂 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Bull Case
Fair value: NT$2,359.42 per share
Implied discount to this fair value versus the last close of NT$2,030: around 14.0%
Analyst revenue growth assumption: 26.71% per year
Focuses on tight capacity for advanced nodes and strong AI related wafer demand supporting high utilization and pricing power. Builds on analyst forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins out to 2029, including detailed upside and downside risk factors. Arrives at a fair value above the current share price and encourages you to test those analyst assumptions against your own view.
🐻 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Bear Case
Fair value: NT$2,010.85 per share
Implied premium to this fair value versus the last close of NT$2,030: around 0.9%
Revenue growth assumption: 11.0% per year
Treats Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing as critical infrastructure for global computing, with high margins and significant scale advantages. Argues that market pricing tends to treat the company as a cyclical manufacturer, while the author sees more durable economics. Builds a valuation framework around sustained growth, robust margins and utility like characteristics that support a higher long term earnings multiple.
If you want to weigh these perspectives against the hard numbers and decide which story fits your expectations, the full narrative set on Simply Wall St makes it easier to connect your outlook, the forecasts and the implied fair values for this stock.
To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.
Do you think there's more to the story for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!TWSE:2330 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include 2330.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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- Stifel Upgrades Onto Innovation to Buy With a Massive New Price Target: Did the Market Miss a Huge Semiconductor Signal?
Apr 17, 2026
Quick Read
Onto Innovation (ONTO) received an upgrade to Buy from Hold by Stifel with a price target raised to $350 from $220, driven by the company’s Gen5 Dragonfly system passing Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s (TSM) New Tool Selection Committee for 2.5D advanced packaging—a validation that opens the door to volume adoption at the world’s most advanced chip foundry. Onto Innovation’s qualification at TSMC addresses a key concern that Stifel had previously cited and positions the company at a critical chokepoint in AI infrastructure supply chain, as 2.5D packaging becomes essential for AI chip production and TSMC projects growth above 30% in 2026 with HPC revenue at 61% of total. The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks. Get them here FREE.
Onto Innovation (NYSE:ONTO) stock just earned a strong endorsement from Stifel, which upgraded shares to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to $350 from $220. The catalyst isn't a quarterly earnings beat or a splashy acquisition. Analyst Brian Chin flagged a qualification that the broader market appears to have overlooked: Onto's new Gen5 Dragonfly system passing Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's (NYSE:TSM) (TSMC's) New Tool Selection Committee for 2.5D advanced packaging.
Stifel was surprised by the "muted" share reaction to Onto Innovation's positive preannouncement and this qualification milestone. For long-term investors, that kind of disconnect between fundamental news and price action is exactly where opportunities tend to surface.
Ticker Company Firm Action Old Rating New Rating Old Target New Target ONTO Onto Innovation Stifel Upgrade Hold Buy $220 $350
The Analyst's Case
Stifel's Brian Chin points to field checks indicating that Onto Innovation recently passed TSMC's New Tool Selection Committee, suggesting the Gen5 Dragonfly qualification is specifically with TSMC. That's a significant distinction. Passing TSMC's New Tool Selection Committee is one of the most meaningful validations a semiconductor equipment company can receive, opening the door to volume adoption across the world's most advanced chip foundry.
READ: The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks
Stifel says this qualification "patches a key concern" it had when it downgraded the stock last year. The firm's reversal here is deliberate and data-driven, not speculative.
Why This Milestone Matters
The Gen5 Dragonfly system targets 2.5D advanced packaging, a critical technology for AI chip production that connects components like high-bandwidth memory and logic dies on a shared substrate. As AI infrastructure spending accelerates, 2.5D packaging has become a chokepoint where precision inspection is non-negotiable. TSMC's New Tool Selection Committee endorsement of Onto's tooling signals the company is positioned at a critical node in that supply chain.
Story Continues
TSMC itself reinforces the macro backdrop. In Q1 2026, TSMC reported revenue of $35.90 billion, up 35% year-over-year, with high-performance computing representing 61% of total revenue. TSMC guided Q2 2026 revenue to $39 billion to $40.2 billion and full-year 2026 growth above 30%. That kind of demand from the world's leading foundry flows directly to equipment makers like Onto Innovation.
Company Snapshot
Onto Innovation is a semiconductor process control and inspection equipment company whose flagship Dragonfly platform serves advanced packaging and memory applications.
The company posted record quarterly revenue of $266.87 million in Q4 2025 and crossed $1.005 billion in full-year FY2025 revenue. A volume purchase agreement exceeding $240 million with a leading HBM manufacturer for Dragonfly 2D and 3D systems through 2027 underscores the platform's commercial traction.
What It Means for Your Portfolio
Stifel's ONTO stock price target increase from $220 to $350 represents a substantial upward revision in the firm's valuation outlook. That said, the upgrade doesn't erase real risks: GAAP profitability remains pressured by restructuring and merger-related charges, and customer capex cycles can shift quickly in semiconductors.
If you believe AI infrastructure spending will continue driving advanced packaging adoption and that a TSMC qualification translates into durable revenue, Onto Innovation stock deserves a closer look at current levels. The market may simply not have caught up to what Stifel's field work is already showing.
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- Assessing Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s Valuation After Strong Multi Year Shareholder Returns
Apr 17, 2026
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Why Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is on investor watchlists
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TWSE:2330) is drawing attention after a stretch of strong multi year total returns, with recent gains over the past month and past 3 months adding to an already sizeable 1 year move.
For investors, those returns raise a practical question: how does the current share price around NT$2,040 align with the company’s earnings power, growth in revenue and net income, and its broader role in the global semiconductor supply chain?
See our latest analysis for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.
The current NT$2,040 share price comes after a strong run, with a 30 day share price return of 7.09%, a 90 day share price return of 17.24%, and a 1 year total shareholder return of 143.58%, indicating momentum that many investors are watching closely.
If Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s recent rally has you thinking about where else growth and infrastructure demand might show up, it could be worth sizing up 38 AI infrastructure stocks.
With NT$2,040 per share set against double digit annual revenue and net income growth, and with mixed signals from valuation estimates, investors now have to ask: is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing still a buying opportunity, or is future growth already priced in?
Most Popular Narrative: 1% Overvalued
According to the most followed narrative, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s fair value sits at NT$2,010, slightly below the last close at NT$2,040, which keeps attention on what is driving that gap.
Rather than applying a market-average semiconductor multiple, it is more sensible to treat TSMC as a platform monopoly with regulated-utility-like inevitability and software-like margins.
Base-case intrinsic framework:
• Sustainable growth above global GDP
• Margins structurally double the industry average
• A terminal multiple reflecting durability, not cyclicality
Read the complete narrative.
Curious what kind of revenue profile, profit margins, and future earnings multiple need to hold up for that fair value math to work out, according to steingar.
Result: Fair Value of NT$2,010 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, investors still have to watch for Taiwan related geopolitical shocks and any reversal in demand from key customers, as these could challenge this infrastructure style narrative.
Find out about the key risks to this Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing narrative.
Story Continues
Another View on TSMC’s Valuation
While the popular narrative pegs fair value near NT$2,010, the current P/E of 27.7x tells a different story. It sits well below both the Taiwan Semiconductor industry average of 42.1x and an estimated fair ratio of 42.7x, which points to a valuation gap investors cannot ignore.
If the market eventually gravitates closer to that fair ratio, the current discount on earnings could either shrink or widen from here, depending on how sentiment and fundamentals evolve.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.TWSE:2330 P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026
Next Steps
If this mix of enthusiasm and caution has you thinking hard about TSMC, this may be a good moment to review the data yourself and weigh both sides, starting with 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
Looking for more investment ideas?
If you are weighing your next move after looking at TSMC, do not stop here, broaden your watchlist with a few focused stock ideas built from clear fundamentals.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include 2330.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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