- China’s self-driving truck leaders say AI breakthroughs won’t accelerate rollout — here’s why
May 1, 2026
BEIJING — While AI updates make headlines every few weeks, those advances are not enough to get self-driving vehicles on the road more quickly.
That's according to Chinese autonomous trucking companies, who say that improvements in large language model, from Anthropic's Claude to China's DeepSeek, have little impact on the timeline for vehicle deployment.
“The world's best linguistics [expert] doesn't mean he's a good driver," Pony.ai CEO James Peng told reporters last week. "AI is a very broad term. They're completely different things. Absolutely ... zero relevance."
"When we process language, when we play sports, when we drive we all use different skills," he said.
Autonomous driving uses artificial intelligence to imitate a human driver with a combination of sensors, chips and algorithms. But the real-world training data needed is very different from what powers large language models such as OpenAI's ChatGPT, requiring what's called world models.
Inceptio, a self-driving truck startup, is still sticking to its timeline for a mid-2028 commercialization milestone, unaffected by the broad advances in AI, CEO Julian Ma told CNBC.
By the third or fourth quarter of 2028, he expects Inceptio will have racked up 5 billion kilometers (3.1 billion miles) of truck driving data in China — enough to allow fully autonomous heavy-duty trucks to ply public roads.
With 5 billion kilometers in collected driving data, AI can extrapolate that into 50 billion km of experience in a world model — which is then sufficient to allow a heavy-duty truck to drive completely on its own, Ma said. He expects the trucks can then start operating without any humans inside in certain parts of the country.
Achieving that goal in about two years is already quite fast, he said, noting that in order for driverless trucks to become a widespread reality, they will need partnerships with manufacturers and regulatory approval — in addition to the tech.
Autonomous vehicles rely heavily on data about driving on roads. Just like robotaxi companies, self-driving truck operators run manned tests in order to gather training data safely.
Inceptio has by far recorded the most commercial autonomous truck miles in the industry, exceeding U.S. rivals, according to ARK Invest's Big Ideas 2026 report in January. At the time, the company had driven 250 million miles — exponentially more than fellow Chinese autonomous driving company Pony.ai, which held second place at 4.2 million miles.
U.S.-based rivals Aurora, Kodiak and Gatik rounded out the top five, with a combined 8.9 million miles, according to the report.
Inceptio's Ma said in late April the company's trucks had driven 700 million kilometers (434.96 million miles), and aimed for 1 billion kilometers (621.4 million miles) by the end of the year. He said the company can use AI to identify which specific scenarios to focus on for gathering test data.
At the Beijing auto show, Pony.ai also announced an upgrade to its PonyWorld 2.0 AI model to improve its ability to collect specific data and train the model more efficiently. The company, which already operates robotaxis in China and other countries, unveiled a fully driverless light-duty truck that it developed with battery giant CATL.
Regulatory challenges
U.S. and Chinese robotaxi companies have rapidly expanded operations in the last year, with several tech executives agreeing that the industry had reached a tipping point.
But Chinese authorities have suspended new autonomous driving licenses after a slew of Baidu Apollo Go robotaxis stopped mid-traffic and caused collisions in Wuhan, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing sources.
In December, a power outage in San Francisco caused autonomous vehicle operator Waymo's robotaxi fleet to stall across the city.
Read more electric car stories
Foreign car companies bet on technology to hang onto once-lucrative China auto marketAlibaba's Qwen AI is coming to cars, allowing drivers to order food and book hotels by voiceEV demand is getting a boost from the Iran war — just as auto giants pivot back to combustion enginesBYD and KFC China collaborate to offer 9-minute refueling stationsVolkswagen announces voice AI in its Chinese cars from later this yearToyota to invest $1 billion to increase U.S. production in Kentucky, Indiana plantsNissan's new hybrid is a U.S.-first that mixes EV driving with a gas engineStellantis-backed Leapmotor delivers more than 100,000 EVs for fourth-straight quarter as BYD sales fallEV battery startup pivots to defense industry amid Iran war, weak electric vehicle marketChinese robotaxi companies forge ahead with UAE expansion despite Iran warVolkswagen pushes into driver-assist EVs without Nvidia, exec says
While China has 5-year development plans that increasingly emphasize tech goals, Ma said it's often companies that take the lead in driving innovation.
"We make it happen," he said, before regulators see the technology in action and are convinced enough to provide policy support.
But it's clear that there's a long way to go before you see trucks and cars running around the country without drivers.
"Automobiles are actually the most challenging area for AI, and exceeds the difficulty of embodied AI to some extent, because it involves safety," Ma said. Embodied AI includes humanoid robots.
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- Aurora Advances Global Medical Cannabis Portfolio with New Product Launches Across Key International Markets
Apr 28, 2026 · prnewswire.com
NASDAQ | TSX: ACB Q1 launches reinforce Aurora's medical‑first strategy, expanding access to high‑quality products across multiple formats Scaled launches across Canada, Europe and Australia support growing demand in regulated international medical markets Continued focus on quality, patient needs and reliable global supply through Aurora's extensive GMP‑certified network EDMONTON, AB, April 28, 2026 /PRNewswire/ - Aurora Cannabis Inc. (NASDAQ: ACB) (TSX: ACB), the Canadian‑based leading global medical cannabis company, is significantly expanding its global medical cannabis portfolio, with new product launches rolling out across Canada, Europe and Australia. The company continues to shape the global cannabis landscape by introducing new products and formats around the world.
- AURORA ADVANCES GLOBAL MEDICAL CANNABIS PORTFOLIO WITH NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES ACROSS KEY INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Apr 28, 2026
NASDAQ | TSX: ACB Q1 LAUNCHES REINFORCE AURORA'S MEDICAL‑FIRST STRATEGY, EXPANDING ACCESS TO HIGH‑QUALITY PRODUCTS ACROSS MULTIPLE FORMATS SCALED LAUNCHES ACROSS CANADA, EUROPE AND AUSTRALIA SUPPORT GROWING DEMAND IN REGULATED INTERNATIONAL MEDICAL MARKETS CONTINUED FOCUS ON QUALITY, PATIENT NEEDS AND RELIABLE GLOBAL SUPPLY THROUGH AURORA'S EXTENSIVE GMP‑CERTIFIED NETWORK EDMONTON, AB, APRIL 28, 2026 /PRNEWSWIRE/ - AURORA CANNABIS INC. (NASDAQ: ACB) (TSX: ACB), THE CANADIAN‑BASED LEADING GLOBAL MEDICAL CANNABIS COMPANY, IS SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDING ITS GLOBAL MEDICAL CANNABIS PORTFOLIO, WITH NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES ROLLING OUT ACROSS CANADA, EUROPE AND AUSTRALIA. THE COMPANY CONTINUES TO SHAPE THE GLOBAL CANNABIS LANDSCAPE BY INTRODUCING NEW PRODUCTS AND FORMATS AROUND THE WORLD.
- Aurora Cannabis: Why I Like This Stock
Apr 24, 2026 · seekingalpha.com
Aurora Cannabis Inc. has transformed into a cannabis-focused company with improving international revenue and margins, while spinning off its Bevo division. ACB's balance sheet now shows net cash of C$46.7 million, achieved through equity sales, and enterprise value trades at just 3.8x projected FY27 adjusted EBITDA. I target a 64% upside for ACB to US$5.58 within a year, based on a 6x FY28 adjusted EBITDA multiple, with the stock trading below tangible book value.
- AM Markets Need to Know: California on social media, cannabis stocks, and more
Apr 24, 2026
[New York City and London multiple exposure image]
Stock index futures fell Thursday, a day after Wall Street edged higher, as investors braced for fresh volatility amid fading hopes of a resolution between the U.S. and Iran.
Now, here are five stories to watch:
CALIFORNIA TARGETS TEEN SOCIAL MEDIA ACCESS: California is advancing a bill that would [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4579172-california-advances-bill-to-ban-kids-under-16-from-social-media] ban children under 16 from platforms such as TikTok (TIKTOK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TIKTOK]), Instagram (META [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/META]), and Snapchat (SNAP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SNAP]), targeting features like algorithmic feeds, endless scroll, autoplay, and notifications.
MUSK SAYS CYBERCAB PRODUCTION HAS BEGUN: Elon Musk said production of the Cybercab has started while cautioning [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4579182-elon-musk-says-cybercab-has-entered-production] that output will initially be slow due to a new supply chain before ramping up later this year and into next.
XAI FACES REGULATORY SCRUTINY RISKS: Investigations into xAI’s handling of harmful AI-generated content could limit its access to certain markets, parent. SpaceX warned [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4579177-spacex-warns-inquiries-into-sexually-abusive-ai-imagery-may-hurt-market-access-reuters-reports] in a prospectus, citing global probes into AI use across advertising and consumer protection.
CANNABIS STOCKS REVERSE GAINS: Cronos Group (CRON [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CRON]), Aurora Cannabis (ACB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ACB]), Canopy Growth (CGC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CGC]), Tilray Brands (TLRY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLRY]), and Organigram Global (OGI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OGI]) fell between 7% and 14% after investors reassessed the limited impact [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4579161-cannabis-selloff-hits-cron-acb-cgc-tlry-ogi-as-reclassification-seen-limited] of marijuana reclassification efforts.
U.S. SOLDIER CHARGED IN POLYMARKET CASE: The Justice Department charged Gannon Ken Van Dyke with fraud and unlawful use of confidential information [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4579166-us-soldier-charged-after-allegedly-earning-400000-betting-on-maduros-removal] after he allegedly earned over $400,000 trading on Polymarket using advance knowledge of a U.S. military operation targeting Venezuela.
MORE ON MARKETS
* Markets Are Stuck In The Waiting For U.S.-Iran Talks [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4893594-markets-stuck-waiting-for-us-iran-talks]
* AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Roars [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4893561-aaii-sentiment-survey-optimism-roars]
* Confidence In 'Rules Of The Game' [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4893509-confidence-in-rules-of-the-game]
* 3 things to look out for on Friday [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4578939-3-things-to-look-out-for-on-friday]
* The Iran war isn’t over, but the markets are still pricing in higher growth [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4578985-the-iran-war-isn-t-over-but-the-markets-are-still-pricing-in-higher-growth]
- Cannabis selloff hits CRON, ACB, CGC, TLRY, OGI as reclassification seen limited
Apr 24, 2026
[Sale of cannabis and other herbs in jars as a souvenir in the store]
frantic00/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
Cannabis stocks gave up their early gains on Thursday as investors reassessed the narrow impact of the U.S. government’s move to reclassify FDA-approved and state-licensed marijuana as a less risky drug.
Cronos Group (CRON [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CRON]), Aurora Cannabis (ACB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ACB]), Canopy Growth (CGC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CGC]), Tilray Brands (TLRY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLRY]), and OrganiGram Holdings (OGI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OGI]) slumped between 7% and 14% in afternoon trading.
Shares of these companies had surged [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4578646-pot-stocks-rise-trump-reschedules-marijuana]after Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche in an X post said the Department of Justice was "immediately rescheduling FDA-approved marijuana and state-licensed marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III." The department is also initiating an expedited hearing to consider the broader rescheduling of marijuana.
But industry participants said the move stops short of a sweeping reclassification. The order applies specifically to FDA-approved cannabis drugs and products operating under state medical marijuana frameworks, rather than the broader market, creating uneven benefits across the sector, FundCanna CEO Adam Stettner said, according to _Reuters_.
Medical operators could see clearer federal alignment and potential tax relief, he said, while companies focused on adult-use markets remain subject to existing restrictions, including limited access to capital and regulatory fragmentation.
The move was narrower than investors had hoped, rescheduling medical cannabis immediately while setting a June hearing on adult use, said Todd Harrison, founding partner and chief investment officer at CB1 Capital Management, the report added.
Cannabis-focused ETFs: AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/YOLO]), ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MJ]), Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CNBS]), AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS)
MORE ON CANNABIS, ETC.
* Wall Street Lunch: Cannabis Stocks Fly High On DEA Rescheduling Move [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4893508-wall-street-lunch-cannabis-stocks-fly-high-on-dea-rescheduling-move]
* Canopy Growth Rallies On Renewed Hope Of Cannabis Rescheduling [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4893230-canopy-growth-rallies-on-renewed-hope-of-cannabis-rescheduling]
* Organigram Global Inc. 2026 Q1 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4891026-organigram-global-inc-2026-q1-results-earnings-call-presentation]
* Pot stocks rise as DOJ reschedules marijuana as a less-dangerous drug [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4578646-pot-stocks-rise-trump-reschedules-marijuana]
* Quant snapshot on cannabis names as Trump plans reclassification [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4578391-quant-snapshot-on-cannabis-names-as-trump-plans-reclassification]
- Pot firms reverse gains on narrow scope of US rescheduling
Apr 23, 2026
STORY: Shares of cannabis firms reversed early gains on Thursday as investors took a closer look at the limited scope of the U.S. government's move to reclassify marijuana as a less-dangerous drug.Cronos Group, Aurora Cannabis, Canopy Growth and Tilray Brands slumped between 7% and 15% in afternoon trading.Shares of these companies had surged after Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche in a social media post said the Department of Justice was, quote, "immediately rescheduling FDA-approved marijuana and state-licensed marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III." The department is also initiating an expedited hearing to consider the broader rescheduling of marijuana.But industry insiders said the move stops short of a sweeping reclassification.The CEO of FundCanna, which provides capital for cannabis companies, said the order applies specifically to FDA-approved cannabis drugs and products operating under state medical marijuana frameworks, rather than the broader market, creating uneven benefits across the sector.A top executive at CB1 Capital Management added that the move was narrower than investors had hoped, rescheduling medical cannabis immediately while setting a June hearing on adult use...with the market not understanding the, quote, "nuances involved, the opposition or the legal challenges." Still, overall, the sector applauded the decision.It would lift a major tax burden that is unique to the cannabis industry that had prevented some companies from claiming tax credits and writing off basic business expenses.The reclassification could also ease access to funding as federal restrictions have long kept most banks and institutional investors on the sidelines, forcing cannabis producers to rely on costly loans or alternative lenders.
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- Cannabis MSOs to see increased investment, lower taxes from reclassification
Apr 23, 2026
[Background from marijuana plants. Hemp leaves and seeds. Legalization of marijuana, Drug factory,]
Dmytro Skrypnykov/iStock via Getty Images
Cannabis multi-state operators, which surged Wednesday following a report that marijuana would be reclassified [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4577995-marijuana-msos-surge-report-trump-set-to-formally-reclassify-cannabis] as a Schedule III substance, are poised to benefit from increased capital investment and lower taxes, according to an industry insider close to one MSO.
The individual, who requested anonymity, told Seeking Alpha that the official announcement [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4578646-pot-stocks-rise-trump-reschedules-marijuana] earlier today and final order from the Justice Department have been "50 years in the making" and will have many positive impacts on companies in the space.
Because marijuana was classified as a Schedule I substance before—meaning it has no recognized medical benefits and a significant risk of abuse—many institutional investors steered clear of investing in MSOs. But that could soon change, the insider said.
The person said the investment landscape before the announcement had been "a desert with no buyers."
The individual also highlighted tax breaks cannabis businesses will now be eligible for with the reclassification. Section 280E of the tax code, which prohibits companies engaged in the trafficking of Schedule I or II substances from deducting business expenses, will no longer apply to MSOs.
It is important to note that the reclassification does not mean marijuana is legalized on the federal level. Penalties still exist on the federal level for possession and distribution, though as a Schedule III, they are less than for a Schedule I drug.
The move will also allow further research into marijuana's medical benefits.
While other observers cheered the reclassification, they noted that other changes are needed before more significant benefits for the industry can be achieved.
The "final order to place certain cannabis-related products in Schedule III marks a meaningful, but highly targeted, policy shift," FundCanna [https://fundcanna.com/] CEO Adam Stettner said in a statement. "Rather than broadly rescheduling cannabis, the order applies specifically to FDA-approved cannabis drugs and products operating under state medical marijuana frameworks, reinforcing that federal recognition is advancing but not yet universal across the industry."
Multi-state operators: Ascend Wellness (OTCQX:AAWH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAWH#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews]), Curaleaf Holdings (OTCPK:CURLF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CURLF#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews]), Cresco Labs (OTCQX:CRLBF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CRLBF#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews]), Green Thumb Industries (OTCQX:GTBIF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GTBIF#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews]), Trulieve Cannabis (OTCQX:TCNNF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TCNNF#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews]), Ayr Wellness (OTCQX:AYRWF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AYRWF#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews]), Verano Holdings (VRNO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VRNO]), and Jushi Holdings (OTCQX:JUSHF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/JUSHF#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews]).
Canadian cannabis LPs: Canopy Growth (CGC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CGC]), Tilray Brands (TLRY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLRY]), Cronos (CRON), Aurora Cannabis (ACB), SNDL (SNDL), and OrganiGram Holdings (OGI).
Cannabis ETFs: AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (NYSEARCA:YOLO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/YOLO#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews]), Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJUS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MJUS]), and Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (NYSEARCA:CNBS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CNBS#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews]).
Cannabis REITs: Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IIPR]), New Lake Capital Partners (NLCP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NLCP]).
MORE ON MULTI-STATE OPERATORS
* Green Thumb's 280E Gamble [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4893247-green-thumbs-280e-gamble]
* Trulieve Cannabis: Preparing For Rescheduling [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4893065-trulieve-cannabis-preparing-for-rescheduling]
* Cresco Labs Will Remain Undervalued Without Any New Synergies (Rating Downgrade) [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4882565-cresco-labs-stock-will-remain-undervalued-without-new-synergies]
* Green Thumb expands buyback program by $100M [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4578581-green-thumb-expands-buyback-program-by-100m]
* Quant snapshot on cannabis names as Trump plans reclassification [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4578391-quant-snapshot-on-cannabis-names-as-trump-plans-reclassification]
- Finally. Marijuana Gets Reclassified, but Are Pot Stocks Still Too Risky?
Apr 23, 2026
Quick Read
Tilray Brands (TLRY), Canopy Growth (CGC), and Aurora Cannabis (ACB) spiked on DOJ reclassification news but remain down 67%, 46%, and 48% from 52-week highs; Schedule III status removes IRS Code Section 280E restrictions, lowering effective tax rates from 60-70% to typical 21% corporate rates and improving banking access. Cannabis companies still face structural headwinds including declining California sales (down 11% year-over-year), price compression from oversupply, and persistent unprofitability despite tax relief. DOJ reclassification from Schedule I to Schedule III removes a major tax burden and regulatory friction, but does not create demand or solve the industry’s underlying challenges of oversupply and margin pressure that even full legalization in Canada failed to resolve. The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks. Get them here FREE.
Markets don’t usually wait for permission -- they anticipate it. That’s why cannabis stocks jumped ahead of the official news that the Justice Dept. would reclassify marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III. But here’s the real question investors should be asking: does this long-awaited shift actually change the investment case, or just the headlines?
Let’s dig into what this move means -- and what it doesn’t.
A Long-Awaited Shift -- and a Quick Reality Check
The DOJ officially moved marijuana to Schedule III, placing it alongside drugs like ketamine and certain steroids instead of heroin or LSD. That’s not legalization -- but it’s a meaningful policy shift.
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The market reaction came fast:
Tilray Brands (NASDAQ:TLRY) rose 14% yessterday Canopy Growth (NASDAQ:CGC) climbed 21% Aurora Cannabis (NASDAQ:ACB) was up a more muted 6.7% All three stocks are lower in midday trading, down mid- to high-single-digits
That pullback tells you something important: traders were positioned early and are now taking profits. Step back further, and the longer-term picture looks less encouraging:
Company Decline from 52-Week High Tilray -67% Canopy Growth -46% Aurora Cannabis -48%
That’s not a sector riding a wave of sustained momentum. It’s one still trying to find its footing.
What Schedule III Actually Changes
Let’s strip away the jargon. Reclassification doesn’t legalize marijuana federally -- states still operate under a patchwork of laws. But it does remove one major obstacle: IRS Code Section 280E. That means cannabis companies could now deduct ordinary business expenses.
Story Continues
Here’s why that matters:
Under Schedule I, companies couldn’t deduct payroll, rent, or marketing Effective tax rates often exceeded 60% to 70%, based on company filings and IRS guidance Moving to Schedule III allows normal corporate tax treatment -- typically 21% federally
That’s a direct hit to the bottom line -- and a positive one.It also improves access to banking services (fewer restrictions for lenders), credit markets (lower borrowing costs), and Institutional capital (previously sidelined investors may step in)
Tilray, for example, reported in its latest earnings release that it generated $188 million in quarterly revenue, but profitability has remained inconsistent. Lower taxes could help -- but only if core operations improve.
Canopy Growth, meanwhile, reported $78.5 million Canadian ($53.5 million) in quarterly revenue in its most recent filing, with continued net losses. Tax relief helps -- but it doesn’t fix declining sales.
Reclassification vs. Legalization Is Still a Big Gap
Here’s where expectations and reality diverge. Investors have been waiting years for a breakthrough moment. This feels like one -- but it’s not the finish line. Surprisingly, state-level legalization hasn’t delivered the growth many expected:
California’s legal cannabis market saw sales decline 11% year over year in 2025, its third consecutive year of decline Price compression from oversupply continues to pressure margins across multiple states
Canada offers another cautionary tale. After full federal legalization in 2018, Canopy Growth and peers faced regulatory bottlenecks and high excise taxes, many producers struggled with inventory write-downs and excess capacity, while profitability has remained elusive years later. In other words, legalization didn’t eliminate business challenges -- it exposed them.
Reclassification is an even smaller step.It removes friction, but doesn’t create demand.
Key Takeaway
In short, this is progress. Real progress. Lower taxes, better banking access, and reduced stigma all help the industry mature.
But investing isn’t about headlines -- it’s about outcomes. Here’s what the numbers and trends tell us:
Cannabis companies still struggle with profitability and pricing pressure Revenue growth has flattened or declined in key markets Stocks like Tilray Brands, Canopy Growth, and Aurora Cannabis remain far below their highs -- 67%, 46%, and 48%, respectively
Granted, lower taxes could improve margins. That said, margins only matter if there’s sustainable demand and disciplined supply. Reclassification is a necessary step. It is not a sufficient one. For investors, that distinction matters.
When all is said and done, cannabis remains a story of potential -- not proven performance. Until these companies show consistent revenue growth, positive free cash flow, and pricing power, sharp investors should treat rallies like this as trading opportunities, not long-term entry points.
The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks
This analyst's 2025 picks are up 106% on average. He just named his top 10 stocks to buy in 2026. Get them here FREE.
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- Tilray Surges 10%: Rescheduling Momentum Builds as Traders Await Official Confirmation
Apr 23, 2026
Quick Read
Tilray Brands (TLRY) shares gained 10% Thursday after rising 14% Wednesday on speculation the Trump administration will reclassify marijuana to Schedule III, a move CEO Irwin Simon says would unlock federal tax advantages and enable expansion of the company’s $150M global medical cannabis and $300M Pharma distribution platforms. Rescheduling could transform federal cannabis regulation, though prediction markets price only a 39% probability by year-end 2026 and a DEA status update in July introduces execution risk that could reverse trading gains if timelines slip. The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks. Get them here FREE.
Shares of Tilray Brands (NASDAQ:TLRY) are up roughly 10% in early Thursday trading, changing hands near $8.68 after the stock closed up 14% at $7.87 on Wednesday. The catalyst is growing speculation that the administration is preparing to reclassify marijuana to a less-dangerous drug category, a regulatory tailwind cannabis investors have been waiting on for years.
The back-to-back surge marks one of the sharpest two-day moves for TLRY stock in months. Traders are debating the potential long-term valuation impact if rescheduling is formalized, and many are watching closely for official confirmation that could sustain or extend the bullish momentum.
Sentiment is decidedly bullish for now, yet the move remains speculative. Wednesday's action also intersected with a $180M equity offering and an ongoing dilution debate, adding noise to what would otherwise be a cleaner rescheduling trade.
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Rescheduling Speculation Drives the Pop
Recent reports indicate the Trump administration is expected to reclassify marijuana as a Schedule III drug, which would ease DEA barriers to cannabis research and unlock potential federal tax treatment advantages for operators. The headlines triggered a sector-wide bid Wednesday, and momentum carried into Thursday's open on fresh speculation about imminent action.
Tilray Brands CEO Irwin D. Simon has repeatedly flagged rescheduling as transformative. In prior remarks, he said federal rescheduling "would mark an important advancement for medical cannabis in the United States, paving the way for more research, wider physician involvement, and better patient access." Tilray plans to leverage its $150M global medical cannabis business and $300M Tilray Pharma distribution platform to roll out a U.S. medical model upon rescheduling.
The fundamentals remain mixed heading into the event. Tilray Brands' Q3 FY26 print on April 1 showed $206.73M in revenue, beating the $201.3M consensus. On the bottom line, adjusted EPS of $0.02 missed the $0.07 estimate. International cannabis revenue jumped 73% year over year to a record $24.12M.
Story Continues
Peers Move Together, Prediction Markets Stay Cautious
Cannabis peers including Canopy Growth (NASDAQ:CGC), Aurora Cannabis (NASDAQ:ACB), and Cronos (NASDAQ:CRON) typically trade in sympathy on rescheduling headlines, and sector-wide flows have been active through the two-day rally. Roth Capital recently upgraded Tilray stock, citing a stable Canadian business, improved international operations, and a turnaround in beverages, though at least one analyst trimmed targets after the Q3 miss. The broader setup echoes other cannabis sector moves tied to policy headlines this month.
The prediction markets tell a more cautious story. Polymarket's December 31, 2026 rescheduling contract is pricing just a 39% probability of Yes, while the June 30, 2026 deadline market sits at 19%. Reddit chatter, by contrast, registered a bullish 72 sentiment score with 99 upvotes and 30 comments.
The valuation debate is front and center in community discussion. With a market cap near $917M and shares down roughly 95% over five years, traders are weighing whether a regulatory catalyst can meaningfully reset the multiple for Tilray Brands or simply offer a trading window.
Analyst targets haven't fully caught up to the move. The consensus for TLRY stock sits at a $10.04 price target with 2 buy, 7 hold, and 1 sell rating, implying further upside if the rescheduling catalyst holds.
What to Watch Into the Close
Investors should watch for whether official DEA or DOJ confirmation materializes in the sessions ahead. Timelines remain fluid, and the pending DEA status update in July and potential litigation introduce real uncertainty that could blunt further upside if delays resurface.
The next earnings date is July 1, 2026, when Tilray Brands reports its Q4 FY26 results. Management has reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $62M to $72M, giving bulls a fundamental floor beneath the regulatory trade.
Traders should keep an eye on whether TLRY stock holds above Wednesday's close into the bell. A confirmed federal rule could extend the rally, while a procedural delay may invite fast profit-taking on a name that's been historically volatile. Momentum traders should expect an active tape through the afternoon.
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