- AFG Q1 Deep Dive: Specialty Insurance Growth, Capital Deployment, and Investment Mix Shape Results
May 2, 2026
Insurance holding company American Financial Group (NYSE:AFG) met Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2026, with sales up 7% year on year to $1.85 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $2.47 per share was 3.4% below analysts’ consensus estimates.
Is now the time to buy AFG? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
American Financial Group (AFG) Q1 CY2026 Highlights:
Revenue: $1.85 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.86 billion (7% year-on-year growth, in line) Adjusted EPS: $2.47 vs analyst expectations of $2.56 (3.4% miss) Market Capitalization: $10.75 billion
StockStory’s Take
American Financial Group’s first quarter results reflected steady growth in its specialty insurance businesses, with management attributing performance to robust underwriting margins and continued success in both new business opportunities and renewal pricing. Co-CEO Carl Lindner highlighted a 66% increase in underwriting profit, driven by improvements across all specialty property and casualty groups. CFO Brian Hertzman noted that net investment income, excluding alternative investments, rose due to higher invested asset balances, though alternative investment returns were impacted by a mark-to-market loss on managed CLOs. Management described the quarter’s overall pricing environment as favorable, especially outside workers’ compensation, and pointed to disciplined underwriting as a key factor supporting results.
Looking ahead, American Financial Group’s leadership expects ongoing capital generation to support a range of deployment options, including acquisitions, dividends, and share repurchases. Craig Lindner indicated that the upcoming sale of the Charleston Harbor Resort and Marina will provide significant capital for reinvestment, with management evaluating the best use of proceeds to avoid earnings dilution. Management sees stable renewal rate increases, disciplined pricing strategies, and ongoing investments in technology as central to maintaining profitability. However, they remain cautious regarding competitive pressures and the impact of industry trends such as social inflation and potential external shocks, like commodity price volatility, on core insurance lines.
Key Insights from Management’s Remarks
Management attributed first quarter results to strong underwriting discipline, favorable renewal rates, and careful capital management, while noting that investment income was tempered by alternative asset volatility.
Specialty insurance margin expansion: Underwriting profits grew 66%, as all specialty property and casualty segments improved year-over-year, aided by lower catastrophe losses and favorable reserve development. Rate increases drive premium growth: Renewal rates, excluding workers’ compensation, rose 5% and have now increased for 39 consecutive quarters. Management highlighted ongoing rate discipline as essential for meeting targeted returns, despite softening trends in workers’ comp. Investment portfolio mix shifts: Net investment income rose 8% excluding alternatives, but alternative investments delivered a slightly negative return due to mark-to-market losses on managed CLOs, reflecting broader syndicated loan market challenges. Capital deployment flexibility: The company returned $260 million to shareholders during the quarter via dividends and share repurchases, while also announcing the expected sale of the Charleston Harbor Resort and Marina, with anticipated pretax gains of $125 million to be redeployed. Expense ratio dynamics: The expense ratio ticked up, impacted by increased IT investments, lower ceding commissions in casualty, and higher contingent commissions in the financial segment, with management emphasizing that these shifts support future capabilities and reward strong business profitability.
Story Continues
Drivers of Future Performance
American Financial Group’s forward outlook centers on further specialty insurance growth, prudent capital allocation, and navigating evolving competitive and macroeconomic conditions.
Continued specialty insurance momentum: Management expects premium growth to remain supported by new business opportunities, renewal pricing, and disciplined underwriting, particularly in commercial auto and excess liability, where rate actions are outpacing loss trends. Capital redeployment opportunities: The pending sale of the marina asset provides flexibility to reinvest proceeds into higher-yielding investments, share repurchases, or potential acquisitions. Management aims to avoid earnings dilution by carefully evaluating reinvestment options, with CFO Brian Hertzman noting that reinvesting proceeds at current yields could offset lost income from the sold property. Competitive and macro headwinds: Executives flagged ongoing competitive pressures, especially in casualty lines where industry returns remain high. They also highlighted the need to monitor input cost inflation, including the indirect effects of geopolitical events on crop insurance, while maintaining a cautious approach to emerging risks like social inflation in long-tail liability lines.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will be watching (1) the reinvestment of proceeds from the Charleston marina sale and its contribution to earnings, (2) the sustainability of underwriting margins across specialty insurance lines as competitive dynamics evolve, and (3) expense trends as technology investments and commission structures impact the cost base. Developments in crop insurance, including commodity pricing and harvest results, will also be key to monitoring segment performance.
American Financial Group currently trades at $130.53, in line with $129.42 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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- How Investors May Respond To American Financial Group (AFG) Earnings Jump And Planned Resort Asset Sale
May 1, 2026
American Financial Group recently reported past first-quarter 2026 results showing stronger underwriting performance and a 36% increase in core net operating earnings year over year, alongside continued premium growth and 39 consecutive quarters of renewal rate increases. The company also disclosed a planned sale of Charleston Harbor Resort & Marina, expected to generate an estimated US$125.00 million pretax core operating gain that management intends to reinvest into higher-yielding bonds or core insurance operations. We’ll now examine how this improved underwriting profitability and planned asset sale may influence American Financial Group’s existing investment narrative.
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American Financial Group Investment Narrative Recap
To own American Financial Group, you need to be comfortable with a specialty insurer whose story rests on disciplined underwriting and efficient capital use. The latest quarter reinforced that underwriting profitability is a key near term catalyst, while catastrophe exposure and litigation driven loss trends remain the most important risks; the Q1 beat on underwriting and 36% jump in core operating earnings are supportive, but the earnings-per-share miss versus expectations suggests the big picture risk/reward has not materially changed.
The planned sale of Charleston Harbor Resort & Marina, with an expected US$125.00 million pretax core operating gain earmarked for higher yielding bonds or core insurance businesses, is the most relevant development here. It directly links the news to the existing catalyst of capital allocation discipline, yet it also highlights how much investors still need to think about underwriting volatility, reserve releases, and catastrophe losses when assessing future earnings power.
However, against this backdrop of stronger underwriting and capital recycling, investors should still be aware of the risk that catastrophe losses and weaker reserve releases could...
Read the full narrative on American Financial Group (it's free!)
American Financial Group’s narrative projects $7.9 billion revenue and $1.1 billion earnings by 2029. This assumes revenues remain fairly flat each year and an earnings increase of about $258 million from $842.0 million today.
Uncover how American Financial Group's forecasts yield a $140.83 fair value, a 6% upside to its current price.
Exploring Other PerspectivesAFG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
Three members of the Simply Wall St Community value American Financial Group between US$122 and about US$285 per share, showing widely spread expectations. Set this against the recent improvement in underwriting returns and consider how sensitive that progress might be to any renewed pressure from catastrophe activity and litigation trends affecting long term profitability.
Story Continues
Explore 3 other fair value estimates on American Financial Group - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!
Decide For Yourself
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
A great starting point for your American Financial Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Our free American Financial Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate American Financial Group's overall financial health at a glance.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include AFG.
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- American Financial Group Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
May 1, 2026
American Financial Group logo
Key Points
AFG reported core net operating earnings of $2.47 per share, up 36% year‑over‑year, driven by stronger underwriting — specialty P&C underwriting profit rose 66% and the specialty P&C combined ratio improved to 90.3 (down 3.7 points). Premiums and pricing remained positive with gross/net written premiums up 6%/3%, renewal rates up about 5% excluding workers’ comp (~3% overall) — marking 39 consecutive quarters of renewal rate increases; commercial auto rates were roughly 14% higher in Q1. AFG returned nearly $260 million to shareholders (including $60 million buybacks and a $1.50 special dividend); its $17.1 billion investment portfolio is earning fixed‑maturity yields near 5.25%, though alternatives were slightly negative this quarter (including a $13 million mark‑to‑market loss on $133 million of CLOs) and direct private credit exposure is modest at about $250 million (~1.5%). Interested in American Financial Group, Inc.? Here are five stocks we like better.
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American Financial Group (NYSE:AFG) executives highlighted stronger underwriting results and higher core operating earnings during the company’s first-quarter 2026 earnings call, pointing to improved combined ratios across its specialty P&C groups and continued capital returns to shareholders.
Core operating earnings rose on underwriting strength
Co-CEO Craig Lindner said AFG posted core net operating earnings of $2.47 per share for the first quarter, up 36% from the year-ago period. Co-CEO Carl Lindner III said the company delivered an annualized core operating return on equity of 17%, which he attributed to “strong underwriting margins.”
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In its specialty property and casualty operations, Carl Lindner III said underwriting profit increased 66% year-over-year. The Specialty P&C businesses reported a 90.3 combined ratio for the quarter, improving 3.7 points from 94.0 in the first quarter of 2025.
Results included 2.2 points of catastrophe losses, compared with 4.5 points in the prior-year quarter, and 4.4 points of favorable prior-year reserve development versus 1.3 points a year earlier.
Premium growth and renewal pricing remained positive
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Carl Lindner III said AFG continued to see premium growth while maintaining underwriting discipline. Gross and net written premiums increased 6% and 3%, respectively, from the first quarter of 2025.
Renewal pricing remained positive across the portfolio. Carl Lindner III said average renewal rates across the P&C group, excluding workers’ compensation, increased about 5% during the quarter, consistent with the previous quarter. Including workers’ comp, renewal rates were up about 3% overall. He noted AFG has reported overall renewal rate increases for 39 consecutive quarters.
Story Continues
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Management also addressed shifting messaging around price adequacy versus loss trends. Carl Lindner III said that because “almost all of our businesses are earning the targeted returns,” AFG can “potentially be more competitive and just cover loss ratio trends, not necessarily exceed them,” while still pushing for stronger pricing in lines where improvement remains a priority.
Group-level underwriting highlights: property/transportation, casualty, and financial
AFG reported improved combined ratios in each of its specialty business groups:
Property and Transportation Group: Carl Lindner III said the group produced an 87.6% calendar-year combined ratio, improving 4.9 points from 92.5% in the first quarter of 2025. Gross and net written premiums increased 11% and 6%, driven primarily by growth in crop insurance products, new business opportunities, higher exposures, and a favorable rate environment in transportation lines. Overall rates in the group were up about 6%. Specialty Casualty Group: The group reported a 95.8% calendar-year combined ratio, improving 1.8 points from 97.6% a year ago. Gross and net written premiums were each up 2%. Carl Lindner III said growth in targeted markets and workers’ compensation was partly offset by “heightened competitive conditions” in excess and surplus lines. Renewal rates excluding workers’ comp were up about 6%, while pricing including workers’ comp rose about 3%. Specialty Financial Group: The group posted an 80% calendar-year combined ratio, improving 7 points from the year-ago quarter. Gross and net written premiums increased 6% and 1%, respectively, primarily due to growth in lender services. Carl Lindner III said net written premiums were tempered by a decision to cede more coastal-exposed property business in the financial institutions business beginning in the second quarter of 2025. Renewal pricing increased about 1%.
On commercial auto, Carl Lindner III said AFG’s commercial auto businesses generated a “solid underwriting profit” and he was “especially pleased” to report a small underwriting profit in commercial auto liability for the quarter. He said rates in commercial auto liability were up about 14% in the first quarter, and told analysts the company still needs to take rate “that exceeds loss ratio trends” to move from a small underwriting profit to a “meaningful underwriting profit.”
Asked about severity and inflation trends in commercial auto, Carl Lindner III said trends have been “pretty consistent,” describing them as high single digits and at times low double digits over multiple years.
On longer-tail casualty lines and social inflation, Carl Lindner III cautioned against drawing conclusions from one quarter, but said the company feels “more positive” and remains focused on pricing that equals or exceeds loss ratio trends in areas like excess liability. He also said AFG has largely completed “re-underwriting and restructuring” in excess liability, including limit reductions and exiting certain nonprofit business, and noted growth in both its nonprofit and excess liability/umbrella businesses during the quarter.
Investment portfolio: higher yields, weaker alternatives, and private credit disclosure
Craig Lindner reviewed performance of AFG’s $17.1 billion investment portfolio. Excluding alternative investments, net investment income at the P&C operations rose 8% year-over-year, driven primarily by higher invested asset balances. About two-thirds of the portfolio was invested in fixed maturities, and Craig Lindner said AFG is investing in fixed-maturity securities at yields of roughly 5.25%. Duration of the P&C fixed-maturity portfolio, including cash and cash equivalents, was 3.1 years at March 31, 2026.
The annualized return on alternative investments in the P&C portfolio was “slightly negative” in the quarter, compared with 1.8% in the prior-year first quarter. Craig Lindner attributed the biggest impact to a $13 million mark-to-market loss on AFG’s $133 million investment in CLOs managed by the company, reflecting deterioration in the broadly syndicated loan market during the first quarter. Despite the quarter’s performance, he said management remains optimistic about “attractive returns” from alternatives over time, with an expectation of annual returns averaging “10% or better.”
Craig Lindner also addressed insurer exposure to private credit. He said AFG’s direct private credit exposure—defined as direct lending to private companies—was about $250 million, or 1.5% of total investments. Indirect private credit exposure includes approximately $800 million in investment-grade rated bonds issued by BDCs and private credit funds, representing less than 5% of total investments, as well as AAA-rated middle-market CLO tranches disclosed in the investor supplement. Craig Lindner said management believes structural subordination provides meaningful protection against material loss risk, even in a severely adverse environment, and noted that market value of direct and indirect private credit exposure was approximately equal to cost as of March 31, 2026.
Capital returns, share repurchases, and Charleston Harbor Resort sale
Craig Lindner said AFG returned nearly $260 million to shareholders during the quarter through $60 million of share repurchases, a $1.50 per share special dividend, and a $0.88 per share regular quarterly dividend. He said the company expects to continue generating “significant excess capital” in 2026, providing flexibility for acquisitions, special dividends, or additional repurchases. Book value per share growth excluding AOCI plus dividends was 3.1% for the quarter.
In response to an analyst question on buybacks, Craig Lindner said the company repurchased shares at “a little over $127 a share” and viewed it as “a very good use” of excess capital.
Management also discussed a planned asset sale. Craig Lindner said AFG reached definitive agreements in April 2026 to sell the Charleston Harbor Resort & Marina, with closing expected in the second or third quarter subject to approvals and customary conditions. The company expects to recognize a pre-tax core operating gain of approximately $125 million on the sale. Carl Lindner III and CFO Brian Hertzman said redeployment of proceeds will determine the ultimate earnings impact, noting that half of the asset is owned at the parent and half in the P&C business. Hertzman said the property generated about $16 million of NOI last year, while Craig Lindner added that the company’s plan assumption for 2026 had been $12.3 million, with the difference likely related to depreciation.
When asked about potential impacts from the Iran conflict, Carl Lindner III said near-term impacts appeared “negligible” to “pretty modest and manageable,” adding that higher fertilizer and fuel costs do not meaningfully affect the current crop year because most fertilizer was already purchased. He said broader exposures across other lines were “pretty modest.”
About American Financial Group (NYSE:AFG)
American Financial Group, Inc (NYSE: AFG) is a diversified holding company primarily engaged in property and casualty insurance and reinsurance. Through its flagship subsidiary, Great American Insurance Company, the firm underwrites a broad range of specialty insurance products for commercial and industrial clients, including inland marine, excess and surplus lines, executive liability, and environmental liability coverage. In addition, American Financial Group offers supplemental accident and health insurance and assumes reinsurance risks from other insurers, helping to diversify its underwriting portfolio.
The company traces its roots to 1946, when it was founded by Carl Lindner, Sr.
The article "American Financial Group Q1 Earnings Call Highlights" was originally published by MarketBeat.
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- AXIS Capital Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Solid Underwriting Income
Apr 30, 2026
AXIS Capital Holdings Limited AXS reported first-quarter 2026 operating income of $3.42 per share, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.23 and rose 7.9% year over year.
The quarterly results benefited from higher net premiums earned and stronger underwriting income, partly offset by lower net investment income and higher expenses.
Axis Capital Holdings Limited Price, Consensus and EPS SurpriseAxis Capital Holdings Limited Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Axis Capital Holdings Limited price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Axis Capital Holdings Limited Quote
AXS’s Quarterly Operational Update
Total operating revenues of $1.7 billion marginally beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.4%. The top line rose nearly 7.7% year over year on higher premiums earned.
Net premiums written increased 9% to $1.9 billion, driven by a 24% rise in the Insurance segment, partially offset by a 13% decline in the Reinsurance segment.
Net investment income decreased 11.1% year over year to $184.7 million, due to lower income from cash. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $225.1 million.
Total expenses in the quarter increased 3.8% year over year to $1.3 billion due to higher net losses and loss expenses, acquisition costs and reorganization expenses. Our estimate was pegged at $1.4 billion.
Pre-tax catastrophe and weather-related losses, net of reinsurance, totaled $48 million, including $33 million from natural catastrophes. The remaining $15 million was attributable to the Middle East conflict.
AXIS Capital’s underwriting income of $187 million increased 15% year over year. The combined ratio improved to 89.8 in the quarter from 90.2 a year ago, reflecting stronger underwriting performance. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at 93.1. Our estimate was 92.6.
Segment Results
Insurance: Gross premiums written improved 19.8% year over year to $2 billion. Our estimate was $1.8 billion. Net premiums earned increased 23.8% year over year to $1.3 billion, driven by higher gross premiums written and a lower cession rate in liability lines, partly offset by a higher cession rate in property lines. Our estimate was $1.1 billion.
Underwriting income of $157.4 million increased 17% year over year. The combined ratio improved 40 basis points to 86.3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the combined ratio was pegged at 88.4.
Reinsurance: Gross premiums written decreased 2.2% year over year to $1.1 billion, mainly due to non-renewals and reduced line sizes in liability and motor lines, in line with our estimate of $1.1 billion. Net premiums earned increased 2.4% year over year to $338.7 million, exceeding our estimate of $315.3 million.
Story Continues
Underwriting income of $30 million increased 3.8% year over year. The combined ratio deteriorated 40 basis points, up 92.7%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the combined ratio was pegged at 101.
Financial Update
AXIS Capital exited the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $862.4 million, up 5.1% from the 2025-end level. Debt was $1.3 billion at quarter-end, unchanged from the 2025 year-end level.
Book value per diluted common share was $78.19, up 1.3% from the Dec. 31, 2025, level.
An annualized operating ROACE of 17.7% reflected strong capital efficiency despite easing from 19.2% a year ago.
Capital Deployment
AXIS Capital returned $93 million to common shareholders in the quarter, including $60 million in share repurchases and $33 million in dividends.
AXS’s Zacks Rank
AXIS Capital currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Performance of Other Insurers
American Financial Group, Inc. AFG reported first-quarter 2026 net operating earnings per share of $2.47, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.55. However, the bottom line increased 36.5% year over year, driven by underwriting income. American Financial‘s total revenues of $1.8 billion decreased 1.7% year over year. The top line also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.3%.
AFG’s net earned premiums rose 1.8% year over year to $1.6 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Net investment income rose 8.1% year over year to $187 million in the quarter under review. The figure was lower than our estimate of $199.8 million and also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $210.2 million.
W.R. Berkley Corporation WRB reported first-quarter 2026 operating income of $1.30 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15%. The bottom line increased 28.7% year over year.
WRB’s total revenues were $3.7 billion, up 5% year over year, driven by higher net premiums earned, improved net investment income, higher revenues from non-insurance businesses and increased other income. W.R. Berkley’s top line missed the consensus estimate by 0.28%. The company’s net premiums written were about $3.2 billion, up 1.3% year over year. The figure, however, beat our estimate as well as the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.18 billion.
Chubb Limited CB reported first-quarter 2026 core operating income of $6.82 per share, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.2%. The bottom line decreased 85.2% year over year. CB’s total operating revenues improved 11.8% year over year to $15.3 billion. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3%.
Chubb’s net premiums written improved 10.7% year over year to $14 billion in the quarter. Our estimate was $13.6 billion, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $13.5 billion. Net investment income was $1.7 billion, up 9.5% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $1.8 billion.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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- AFG Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Decline 1.7% Y/Y
Apr 30, 2026
American Financial Group, Inc. AFG reported first-quarter 2026 net operating earnings per share of $2.47, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.55. However, the bottom line increased 36.5% year over year, driven by underwriting income.
Total revenues of $1.8 billion decreased 1.7% year over year. The decline was due to lower investment income and realized gains (losses) on securities. The top line also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.3%.
AFG’s first-quarter results were weighed down by weaker performance in its alternative investment portfolio, which offset strong underwriting results in its Specialty Property & Casualty (“P&C”) insurance segment.
American Financial Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS SurpriseAmerican Financial Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
American Financial Group, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | American Financial Group, Inc. Quote
Behind the Headlines
Net earned premiums rose 1.8% year over year to $1.6 billion in the first quarter of 2026. The figure was below both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate of $1.8 billion.
Net investment income rose 8.1% year over year to $187 million in the quarter under review. The figure was lower than our estimate of $199.8 million and also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $210.2 million.
Total costs and expenses decreased 2.7% year over year to $1.6 billion due to lower losses & loss adjustment expenses, interest charges on borrowed money and expenses of managed investment entities. The figure was lower than our estimate of $1.8 billion.
Segmental Update
The Specialty P&C Insurance segment generated $1.7 billion in net written premiums, which improved 3% year over year, driven by new business, favorable renewal rates and higher exposures, supported by diversified operations and disciplined underwriting.
Net written premiums in the Property & Transportation Group increased 6% year over year to $596 million in the quarter.
Net written premiums at the Specialty Casualty Group increased 2% year over year to $789 million. Further, net written premiums at Specialty Financial Group rose 1% year over year to $279 million.
The Specialty P&C Insurance segment’s underwriting profit increased 66% year over year to $156 million in the quarter, driven by higher underwriting profit across all three groups. The figure exceeded our estimate of $145 million. Pre-tax core operating earnings before income taxes of the P&C Insurance segment were $309 million, up 25.6% year over year.
In the Specialty Financial Group, a higher year-over-year underwriting profit of $57 million was primarily driven by stronger performance in its fidelity/crime and financial institutions businesses. Catastrophe losses in Specialty Financial Group totaled $12 million in the reported quarter, narrower than the year-ago loss of $35 million. The current combined ratio of 80% improved 70 basis points year over year. The results benefited from favorable prior-year reserve development.
Story Continues
Financial Update
American Financial exited the first quarter of 2026 with total cash and investments of $17.1 billion, which decreased 0.2% from the 2025-end level. Long-term debt of $1.82 billion in the first quarter of 2026 remained the same as the 2025-end level.
As of March 31, 2026, the company’s book value per share, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI), was $57.83 compared to $58.38 at the end of 2025. Annualized return on equity was 15.8% in the first quarter, which increased 250 basis points year over year.
AFG’s Prudent Capital Deployment
American Financial returned $259 million to shareholders in the first quarter of 2026, consisting of $125 million in special dividends and $60 million in share repurchases. It paid total cash dividends of $2.38 per share, which included a $1.50 per share special dividend paid in February 2026.
AFG’s Zacks Rank
American Financial currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Performance of Other Insurers
The Progressive Corporation’s PGR first-quarter 2026 earnings per share of $4.96 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.5%. The bottom line increased 6.7% year over year. Net premiums written were $23.6 billion in the quarter, up 6.5% from $22.2 billion a year ago.
PGR's Net premiums earned grew 8% to $20.9 billion. The reported figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.5%. Operating revenues grew 8.2% year over year to $22.3 billion, driven by 8% higher net premiums earned, a 12.7% increase in net investment income, a 3.5% rise in fees and other revenues, and 13.5% higher service revenue. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.2%.
W.R. Berkley Corporation WRB reported first-quarter 2026 operating income of $1.30 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15%. The bottom line increased 28.7% year over year. Total revenues were $3.7 billion, up 5% year over year, driven by higher net premiums earned, improved net investment income, higher revenues from non-insurance businesses and increased other income. The top line missed the consensus estimate by 0.3%.
W.R. Berkley’s net premiums written were about $3.2 billion, up 1.3% year over year. The figure missed our estimate as well as the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.18 billion.
Chubb Limited CB reported first-quarter 2026 core operating income of $6.82 per share, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.2%. The bottom line decreased 85.2% year over year. Total operating revenues improved 11.8% year over year to $15.3 billion. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3%.
CB's Net premiums written improved 10.7% year over year to $14 billion in the quarter. Our estimate was $13.6 billion, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $13.5 billion. Net investment income was $1.7 billion, up 9.5% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $1.8 billion, and our estimate was $2 billion.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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- AFG Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Decline 1.7% Y/Y
Apr 30, 2026 · zacks.com
American Financial misses Q1 EPS estimates as weak investments drag revenues, but underwriting profit surges 66% y/y in its Specialty P&C segment.
- American Financial (AFG) Reports Q1 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say
Apr 30, 2026
American Financial Group (AFG) reported $1.83 billion in revenue for the quarter ended March 2026, representing a year-over-year decline of 1.7%. EPS of $2.47 for the same period compares to $1.81 a year ago.
The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.99 billion, representing a surprise of -8.29%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of -2.95%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $2.55.
While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.
As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.
Here is how American Financial performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Property and Casualty combined ratio - Specialty - Loss and LAE Ratio: 56.3% compared to the 60.5% average estimate based on four analysts. Property and Casualty combined ratio - Specialty - Underwriting Expense Ratio: 34% versus 32.1% estimated by four analysts on average. Property and Casualty combined ratio - Specialty - Combined Ratio - Specialty: 90.3% versus the four-analyst average estimate of 92.8%. Specialty Casualty - Loss and LAE Ratio: 64.7% versus 66.5% estimated by three analysts on average. Specialty Casualty - Underwriting Expense Ratio: 31.1% compared to the 29% average estimate based on three analysts. Revenues- Net investment income: $187 million compared to the $210.21 million average estimate based on four analysts. The reported number represents a change of +8.1% year over year. Revenues- Net earned premiums: $1.61 billion versus the four-analyst average estimate of $1.77 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +1.8%. Specialty Casualty- Net earned premium: $799 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $843.8 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +0.6%. Property and Transportation- Net earned premium: $526 million versus $639.68 million estimated by three analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +5.2% change. Specialty Financial- Net earned premium: $284 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $307.92 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -0.7%. Revenues- Other income: $29 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $28.88 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +7.4%. Revenues- Income of managed investment entities- Investment income: $67 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $70.11 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -11.8%.
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View all Key Company Metrics for American Financial here>>>
Shares of American Financial have returned +2.9% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +12.2% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
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American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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- American Financial Group (AFG) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Lag Estimates
Apr 29, 2026
American Financial Group (AFG) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.47 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.55 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.81 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -2.95%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this property and casualty insurer would post earnings of $3.18 per share when it actually produced earnings of $3.65, delivering a surprise of +14.78%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.
American Financial, which belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, posted revenues of $1.83 billion for the quarter ended March 2026, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.29%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $1.86 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates just once over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
American Financial shares have lost about 3.9% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 4.3%.
What's Next for American Financial?
While American Financial has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for American Financial was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $2.45 on $2.01 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $10.98 on $8.33 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
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Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Insurance - Property and Casualty is currently in the top 26% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Mercury General (MCY), another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended March 2026. The results are expected to be released on May 5.
This auto insurance company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $2.15 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +193.9%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
Mercury General's revenues are expected to be $1.46 billion, up 6.2% from the year-ago quarter.
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American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Mercury General Corporation (MCY) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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- American Financial (AFG) Reports Q1 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say
Apr 29, 2026 · zacks.com
Although the revenue and EPS for American Financial (AFG) give a sense of how its business performed in the quarter ended March 2026, it might be worth considering how some key metrics compare with Wall Street estimates and the year-ago numbers.
- American Financial Group’s (NYSE:AFG) Q1 CY2026 Earnings Results: Revenue In Line With Expectations
Apr 29, 2026
Insurance holding company American Financial Group (NYSE:AFG) met Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2026, with sales up 7% year on year to $1.85 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $2.47 per share was 3.4% below analysts’ consensus estimates.
Is now the time to buy American Financial Group? Find out in our full research report.
American Financial Group (AFG) Q1 CY2026 Highlights:
Net Premiums Earned: $1.61 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.70 billion (1.8% year-on-year growth, 5.2% miss) Revenue: $1.85 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.86 billion (7% year-on-year growth, in line) Pre-tax Profit: $239 million (12.9% margin) Adjusted EPS: $2.47 vs analyst expectations of $2.56 (3.4% miss) Book Value per Share: $56.30 vs analyst estimates of $58.15 (7.3% year-on-year growth, 3.2% miss) Market Capitalization: $10.92 billion
Company Overview
With roots dating back to 1872 and a business model that empowers local decision-making, American Financial Group (NYSE:AFG) is an insurance holding company that specializes in commercial property and casualty insurance products for businesses through its Great American Insurance Group.
Revenue Growth
Insurance companies generate revenue three ways. The first is the core insurance business itself, represented in the income statement as premiums earned. The second source is investment income from investing the “float” (premiums collected but not yet paid out as claims) in assets such as fixed-income assets and equities. The third is fees from policy administration, annuities, and other value-added services. Over the last five years, American Financial Group grew its revenue at a decent 7.8% compounded annual growth rate. Its growth was slightly above the average insurance company and shows its offerings resonate with customers.American Financial Group Quarterly Revenue
Long-term growth is the most important, but within financials, a half-decade historical view may miss recent interest rate changes and market returns. American Financial Group’s recent performance shows its demand has slowed as its annualized revenue growth of 3.5% over the last two years was below its five-year trend. We’re wary when companies in the sector see decelerations in revenue growth, as it could signal changing consumer tastes aided by low switching costs.American Financial Group Year-On-Year Revenue Growth
Note: Quarters not shown were determined to be outliers, impacted by outsized investment gains/losses that are not indicative of the recurring fundamentals of the business.
This quarter, American Financial Group grew its revenue by 7% year on year, and its $1.85 billion of revenue was in line with Wall Street’s estimates.
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Net premiums earned made up 90.5% of the company’s total revenue during the last five years, meaning American Financial Group lives and dies by its underwriting activities because non-insurance operations barely move the needle.American Financial Group Quarterly Net Premiums Earned as % of Revenue
Markets consistently prioritize net premiums earned growth over investment and fee income, recognizing its superior quality as a core indicator of the company’s underwriting success and market penetration.
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Book Value Per Share (BVPS)
Insurers are balance sheet businesses, collecting premiums upfront and paying out claims over time. Premiums collected but not yet paid out, often referred to as the float, are invested and create an asset base supported by a liability structure. Book value per share (BVPS) captures this dynamic by measuring these assets (investment portfolio, cash, reinsurance recoverables) less liabilities (claim reserves, debt, future policy benefits). BVPS is essentially the residual value for shareholders.
We therefore consider BVPS very important to track for insurers and a metric that sheds light on business quality because it reflects long-term capital growth and is harder to manipulate than more commonly-used metrics like EPS.
American Financial Group’s BVPS declined at a 6.4% annual clip over the last five years. However, BVPS growth has accelerated recently, growing by 5.5% annually over the last two years from $50.56 to $56.30 per share.American Financial Group Quarterly Book Value per Share
Over the next 12 months, Consensus estimates call for American Financial Group’s BVPS to grow by 14.1% to $58.15, top-notch growth rate.
Key Takeaways from American Financial Group’s Q1 Results
We struggled to find many positives in these results. Its net premiums earned missed and its book value per share fell short of Wall Street’s estimates. Overall, this was a weaker quarter. The stock remained flat at $128.41 immediately following the results.
American Financial Group’s latest earnings report disappointed. One quarter doesn’t define a company’s quality, so let’s explore whether the stock is a buy at the current price. The latest quarter does matter, but not nearly as much as longer-term fundamentals and valuation, when deciding if the stock is a buy. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it’s free.
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