- Assessing AutoZone (AZO) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness
May 13, 2026
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AutoZone stock snapshot after recent performance shifts
AutoZone (AZO) has drawn fresh attention after a period of mixed share performance, with the stock down around 3.7% over the past week and about 8.7% over the past 3 months.
At a recent close of US$3,409.81 and a market value near US$56.5b, investors are weighing that pullback against AutoZone's annual revenue of US$19.6b and net income of US$2.4b from its auto parts retail and distribution business.
See our latest analysis for AutoZone.
While the 7 day share price return is down 3.7% and the 90 day share price return is down 8.7%, AutoZone's 5 year total shareholder return of 125.69% shows a stronger longer term record. This indicates that recent momentum looks softer than its longer history.
If AutoZone's recent pullback has you reassessing your watchlist, it could be a good moment to see which other retailers and consumer stocks are holding up better through the 20 top founder-led companies
With AutoZone stock down over the past year but still carrying a value score of 3 and trading at a small estimated intrinsic discount, is this recent weakness a potential entry point, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 19% Undervalued
AutoZone's most followed narrative pegs fair value around $4,204.74 per share, which sits well above the recent close near $3,409.81, and frames the stock as trading at a discount based on long term earnings and cash flow assumptions.
AutoZone's focus on improving availability and speed of delivery in the Domestic Commercial business is expected to drive further sales growth, contributing significantly to revenue growth.
The expansion of Mega-Hub locations, with an aim to open at least 19 more in the next two quarters, will enhance inventory availability and support both retail and Commercial growth, potentially improving sales and operating margins.
Read the complete narrative.
Want to see what kind of revenue curve and margin profile could justify that higher fair value tag and a richer earnings multiple than the industry? The full narrative lays out the growth cadence, profit trajectory, and valuation math that underpin this 19% undervalued call, so you can line those assumptions up against your own view of AutoZone's business.
Result: Fair Value of $4,204.74 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, you still need to weigh risks such as tariffs on China sourced products and ongoing FX and cost pressures that could squeeze margins if sales soften.
Story Continues
Find out about the key risks to this AutoZone narrative.
Another angle on AutoZone's valuation
The analyst narrative frames AutoZone as about 19% undervalued, but the earnings multiple sends a mixed signal. The stock trades on a P/E of 23x, which is above both the fair ratio of 20.9x and the US Specialty Retail average of 19.3x. This raises the question of how comfortable investors are with paying a premium for this stock.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.NYSE:AZO P/E Ratio as at May 2026
Next Steps
With mixed signals around valuation, risks, and rewards, sentiment is clearly divided. Move quickly, review the underlying data, and weigh the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include AZO.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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- Citi upgrades Lowe’s to Buy but retail sector faces uncertain consumer outlook
May 12, 2026
Investing.com -- Analysts at Citigroup upgraded Lowe's to “Buy” in a new earnings preview report, arguing the home improvement retailer is well-positioned to outperform rivals despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and a sluggish housing market.
The report, covering the U.S. broadlines and hardlines retail sector ahead of first-quarter earnings, said the group has underperformed in 2026 amid fears over weakening consumer demand and rising fuel prices. Citi noted, however, that most retailers are still expected to deliver results that are in line with or slightly above Wall Street expectations.
Citi upgraded Lowe’s from “Neutral” to “Buy” while maintaining its $285 price target, citing four consecutive quarters of positive same-store sales growth and continued market share gains over rival Home Depot. Analysts said Lowe’s benefits from greater exposure to do-it-yourself customers and smaller home improvement projects, which could prove more resilient in the current economic environment.
“We believe the home improvement industry has bottomed,” Citi analysts wrote, adding that lower interest rates and easing geopolitical tensions could support a multi-year recovery in housing-related spending.
The bank also highlighted valuation as a key factor behind the upgrade. Lowe’s currently trades at roughly 16.5 times forward earnings, a discount to other large retail leaders despite projected long-term earnings growth above 10%, according to the report.
Among Citi’s top retail picks are O'Reilly Automotive, Home Depot, AutoZone, Lowe’s, and Ollie's Bargain Outlet.
Elsewhere in the sector, Citi maintained cautious views on several consumer-facing names, including Best Buy and Petco, citing tougher sales comparisons and uneven consumer spending trends.
The report comes as investors closely monitor the health of the U.S. consumer amid elevated oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and continued uncertainty in the housing market. Citi said catalysts for a stronger retail recovery would include lower interest rates, declining oil prices, and improving consumer confidence.
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- New Study Finds These Sectors Produce the Most 100-Bagger Stocks
May 12, 2026 · 247wallst.com
On a recent episode of The Compound and Friends, hosts Josh Brown and Michael Batnick sat down with former Janus analyst Matt Ancrum to discuss his study of 100-bagger stocks.
- AutoZone (AZO) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: What You Should Know
May 11, 2026
AutoZone (AZO) closed the most recent trading day at $3,427.80, moving -1.96% from the previous trading session. This change lagged the S&P 500's 0.19% gain on the day. On the other hand, the Dow registered a gain of 0.19%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq increased by 0.1%.
Heading into today, shares of the auto parts retailer had gained 1.92% over the past month, lagging the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 6.53% and the S&P 500's gain of 9.13%.
The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of AutoZone in its upcoming release. The company is slated to reveal its earnings on May 26, 2026. The company is expected to report EPS of $36.09, up 2.06% from the prior-year quarter. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $4.86 billion, up 8.8% from the year-ago period.
Looking at the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $148.93 per share and revenue of $20.53 billion. These totals would mark changes of +2.8% and +8.38%, respectively, from last year.
Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for AutoZone. These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To capitalize on this, we've crafted the Zacks Rank, a unique model that incorporates these estimate changes and offers a practical rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, running from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), holds an admirable track record of superior performance, independently audited, with #1 stocks contributing an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.23% lower. AutoZone currently has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
With respect to valuation, AutoZone is currently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 23.48. This signifies a premium in comparison to the average Forward P/E of 18.92 for its industry.
We can additionally observe that AZO currently boasts a PEG ratio of 1.79. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. By the end of yesterday's trading, the Automotive - Retail and Wholesale - Parts industry had an average PEG ratio of 1.66.
The Automotive - Retail and Wholesale - Parts industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 168, putting it in the bottom 32% of all 250+ industries.
Story Continues
The strength of our individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, which is calculated based on the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within these groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Don't forget to use Zacks.com to keep track of all these stock-moving metrics, and others, in the upcoming trading sessions.
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- AutoZone (AZO) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: What You Should Know
May 11, 2026 · zacks.com
In the most recent trading session, AutoZone (AZO) closed at $3, indicating a -1.96% shift from the previous trading day.
- Here is What to Know Beyond Why AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is a Trending Stock
May 8, 2026
AutoZone (AZO) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Shares of this auto parts retailer have returned +0.2% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +11% change. The Zacks Automotive - Retail and Wholesale - Parts industry, to which AutoZone belongs, has gained 3.6% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Earnings Estimate Revisions
Rather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
AutoZone is expected to post earnings of $36.09 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +2.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0%.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $148.93 points to a change of +2.8% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed -0.2%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $175.12 indicates a change of +17.6% from what AutoZone is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for AutoZone.
Story Continues
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS12-month consensus EPS estimate for AZO
Revenue Growth Forecast
While earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
In the case of AutoZone, the consensus sales estimate of $4.86 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +8.8%. The $20.53 billion and $22.07 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +8.4% and +7.5%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
AutoZone reported revenues of $4.27 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +8.2%. EPS of $27.63 for the same period compares with $28.29 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.31 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -0.82%. The EPS surprise was +1.96%.
Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed EPS estimates just once. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.
Valuation
Without considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
AutoZone is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Conclusion
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about AutoZone. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
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- Here is What to Know Beyond Why AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is a Trending Stock
May 8, 2026 · zacks.com
AutoZone (AZO) has received quite a bit of attention from Zacks.com users lately. Therefore, it is wise to be aware of the facts that can impact the stock's prospects.
- CarGurus (CARG) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
May 7, 2026
CarGurus (CARG) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.58 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.56 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.46 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +4.04%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this online auto shopping platform would post earnings of $0.61 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.63, delivering a surprise of +3.28%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.
CarGurus, which belongs to the Zacks Internet - Commerce industry, posted revenues of $243.56 million for the quarter ended March 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.03%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $225.16 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
CarGurus shares have lost about 2.5% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 7.6%.
What's Next for CarGurus?
While CarGurus has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for CarGurus was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.59 on $249.35 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $2.49 on $1.01 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Story Continues
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Internet - Commerce is currently in the bottom 23% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Another stock from the broader Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, AutoZone (AZO), has yet to report results for the quarter ended May 2026. The results are expected to be released on May 26.
This auto parts retailer is expected to post quarterly earnings of $36.09 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +2.1%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0% higher over the last 30 days to the current level.
AutoZone's revenues are expected to be $4.86 billion, up 8.8% from the year-ago quarter.
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- Strattec Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
May 6, 2026
Strattec Security Corporation STRT is slated to release third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on May 7, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s EPS and revenues is pegged at $1.14 per share and $140.7 million, respectively.
For the fiscal third quarter, the consensus estimate for STRT’s earnings per share has moved down 33 cents in the past 90 days. Its bottom-line estimates imply a decline of 24% from the year-ago reported number.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues suggests a year-over-year decline of 2.4%.
STRT surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 71.07%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Strattec Security Corporation Price and EPS SurpriseStrattec Security Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Strattec Security Corporation price-eps-surprise | Strattec Security Corporation Quote
Q2 Highlights
In the fiscal second quarter, Strattec reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.71, which rose from 65 cents recorded in the year-ago period and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 93 cents. The company reported $137.5 million, which increased 6% year over year and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.89%.
Things to Note
Strattec’s profitability has improved as operational and restructuring initiatives begin to take hold. Its restructuring efforts are expected to generate roughly $3.4 million in annualized savings. With selling and administrative expenses targeted at about 10-11% of sales in the second half, disciplined cost control is likely to have supported profitability.
The company generated $13.9 million in operating cash flow in the fiscal second quarter of 2026, up 48% year over year. Improved cash flow provides greater financial flexibility to support restructuring initiatives, technology investments and potential balance-sheet strengthening. STRT ended the quarter with $99 million in cash and minimal debt, with only about $2.5 million tied to its joint venture. It expects roughly $40 million in operating cash flow for fiscal 2026 and capital spending below $10 million.
Improving profitability and cash flows are likely to have improved Strattec’s performance in the fiscal third quarter.
However, long product cycles limit near-term growth catalysts. New customer opportunities are progressing, but the revenue impact is likely several years away. The discussions for access products and digital key programs are tied to model year 2029 and beyond, reflecting the automotive industry’s long platform development cycles. While platform awards typically provide revenues for 5-7 years once secured, the extended timeline implies limited incremental contribution in fiscal 2026.
The company expects fiscal 2026 second-half sales to decline about 3-4% year over year due to softer U.S. auto production and the lapping of fiscal 2025 pricing actions beginning in the third quarter of fiscal 2026. The expected decline in second-half sales is likely to have impacted the company’s top-line growth in the fiscal third quarter.
Story Continues
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Strattec this time around, as it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients. A positive Earnings ESP, combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: STRT has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at par with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Strattec currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Earnings Whispers for Other Auto Stocks
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. AAP has an Earnings ESP of +1.38% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. It is scheduled to post first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 21. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 40 cents per share.
AAP surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 55.97%.
AutoZone, Inc. AZO has an Earnings ESP of -1.45% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. It is scheduled to post third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on May 26. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $36.09 per share.
AZO beat earnings estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, the average negative surprise being 2.30%.
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- AutoZone (AZO) Stock Slides as Market Rises: Facts to Know Before You Trade
May 5, 2026
AutoZone (AZO) closed the most recent trading day at $3,540.92, moving -1.48% from the previous trading session. The stock trailed the S&P 500, which registered a daily gain of 0.81%. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 0.73%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 1.03%.
The auto parts retailer's shares have seen an increase of 1.28% over the last month, not keeping up with the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 11.15% and the S&P 500's gain of 9.47%.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of AutoZone in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings report is set to be unveiled on May 26, 2026. The company is forecasted to report an EPS of $36.09, showcasing a 2.06% upward movement from the corresponding quarter of the prior year. At the same time, our most recent consensus estimate is projecting a revenue of $4.86 billion, reflecting a 8.8% rise from the equivalent quarter last year.
Regarding the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $148.93 per share and revenue of $20.53 billion, indicating changes of +2.8% and +8.38%, respectively, compared to the previous year.
Additionally, investors should keep an eye on any recent revisions to analyst forecasts for AutoZone. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the business and profitability.
Our research demonstrates that these adjustments in estimates directly associate with imminent stock price performance. To take advantage of this, we've established the Zacks Rank, an exclusive model that considers these estimated changes and delivers an operational rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, stretching from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has a noteworthy track record of outperforming, validated by third-party audits, with stocks rated #1 producing an average annual return of +25% since the year 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.23% lower. AutoZone is holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) right now.
Digging into valuation, AutoZone currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 23.38. This valuation marks a premium compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 18.24.
Also, we should mention that AZO has a PEG ratio of 1.78. Comparable to the widely accepted P/E ratio, the PEG ratio also accounts for the company's projected earnings growth. The Automotive - Retail and Wholesale - Parts industry had an average PEG ratio of 1.58 as trading concluded yesterday.
The Automotive - Retail and Wholesale - Parts industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 173, finds itself in the bottom 30% echelons of all 250+ industries.
Story Continues
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the vigor of our specific industry groups by computing the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks incorporated in the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.
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