- Earnings week ahead: NVDA, HD, TGT, WMT, NIO, BIDU, ZIM, and more
May 17, 2026
Despite a relatively light earnings calendar, the upcoming week still features a broad mix of major players across retail, technology, semiconductors, healthcare, industrials, and global shipping.
Leading the week will be NVIDIA (NVDA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NVDA]), whose results are expected to remain central to the broader AI trade, particularly around data center demand, hyperscaler spending, and semiconductor momentum.
Chinese technology names Baidu (BIDU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BIDU]) and NIO (NIO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NIO]) will also be closely watched for updates on AI commercialization, autonomous driving, and consumer demand trends in China.
On the consumer front, earnings from Walmart (WMT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/WMT]), The Home Depot (HD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HD]), Target (TGT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TGT]), Lowe's Companies (LOW [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LOW]), and The TJX Companies (TJX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TJX]) are expected to provide insight into discretionary spending trends, housing-related demand, pricing behavior, and the resilience of the U.S. consumer.
Enterprise software and technology spending will come into focus through results from Zoom Communications (ZM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ZM]), Intuit (INTU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INTU]), and Workday (WDAY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/WDAY]), while Analog Devices (ADI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ADI]) is expected to offer a read on industrial and automotive semiconductor demand trends.
Meanwhile, industrial and healthcare bellwethers Deere & Company (DE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DE]) and Medtronic plc (MDT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MDT]) could provide further perspective on manufacturing activity, agricultural demand, healthcare utilization, and medical technology spending. Investors will also monitor results from ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ZIM]) for signals around global freight demand, shipping rates, and international trade activity.
The week also includes results from Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TTWO]), which may offer additional insight into gaming engagement trends and investor expectations surrounding major upcoming game releases.
With AI leadership, consumer resilience, enterprise spending, industrial activity, and global trade all under the spotlight, the week’s earnings could provide another important gauge of broader economic momentum and market direction.
Below is a rundown of major quarterly updates anticipated for the week of May 18 to May 22:
MONDAY, MAY 18
BAIDU (BIDU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BIDU])
Baidu (BIDU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BIDU]), China’s leading AI and search company, is set to report its Q1 2026 results before Monday’s market open, with investors closely watching whether its AI-driven transformation can continue offsetting weakness in its legacy online advertising business.
In the most recent quarter, Baidu reported revenue of roughly $4.68B, up 5% Y/Y, as strength in AI Cloud and Apollo Go helped balance softer search advertising trends. Earnings were a notable bright spot, with Q4 EPS of $1.52 beating consensus estimates of $1.12 by 36%, supported by cost optimization efforts and improving economics across generative AI services.
Baidu’s AI business continues to gain momentum. AI Cloud infrastructure revenue reached RMB 5.8B in Q4 2025, while subscription revenue tied to AI accelerator infrastructure surged 143% Y/Y. Full-year AI Cloud revenue rose 34% to RMB 30B, while AI Applications revenue exceeded RMB 10B. AI-powered core revenue surpassed RMB 11B in Q4, accounting for 43% of Baidu General Business revenue, a mix management expects to keep expanding. The company’s ERNIE ecosystem has also scaled rapidly, with ERNIE Assistant monthly active users reaching 202M following the launch of ERNIE 5.0 earlier this year.
Apollo Go, Baidu’s autonomous ride-hailing platform, remains a major focus for investors. The unit completed 3.4M fully driverless rides in Q4, with total rides growing more than 200% Y/Y and cumulative rides surpassing 20M as of February 2026. International expansion has accelerated through partnerships with Uber and Lyft in London, autonomous operations in Abu Dhabi, regulatory approvals in Dubai, and market entry into South Korea.
Baidu has also shifted its capital return strategy, announcing its first-ever dividend alongside a $5B share repurchase program, signaling confidence in long-term cash generation and potentially broadening the stock’s appeal to income-oriented investors.
Management continues to guide for strong AI Cloud growth in 2026, driven by enterprise AI adoption and Baidu’s full-stack AI ecosystem, while maintaining that AI-powered businesses are on track to become the majority of Baidu General Business revenue over time.
Wall Street analysts maintain a Moderate Buy consensus on the stock, while Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating system remains more cautious with a Hold rating [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BIDU/ratings/quant-ratings], citing valuation and competitive risks.
Key concerns heading into earnings include ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and rising competition from emerging Chinese large-language-model players such as DeepSeek.
* CONSENSUS EPS ESTIMATE: $1.68
* CONSENSUS REVENUE ESTIMATE: $4.65B
* EARNINGS INSIGHT: Baidu has beaten EPS estimates in 7 of the past 8 quarters and revenue expectations in 6 of those reports.
ALSO REPORTING: iQIYI (IQ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IQ]), Niu Technologies (NIU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NIU]), Compugen (CGEN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CGEN]), Sohu.com (SOHU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SOHU]), Yalla Group Limited (YALA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/YALA]), and more.
TUESDAY, MAY 19
THE HOME DEPOT (HD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HD])
The Home Depot (HD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HD]), the world’s largest home improvement retailer, is set to report fiscal Q1 2026 results before Tuesday’s market open, with investors looking for early signs that housing-related demand may finally be stabilizing.
In its previous quarter, Home Depot snapped a three-quarter streak of earnings misses, reporting adjusted EPS of $2.72 vs. expectations of $2.54, while revenue of $38.2B met consensus estimates. Despite the earnings beat, sales still declined roughly 4% Y/Y as elevated interest rates, weak housing turnover, and cautious consumer spending continued to pressure larger home improvement projects. CEO Ted Decker noted at the time that housing activity appeared to be “bouncing along what we hope would be a bottom,” a narrative investor will be closely monitoring in the upcoming results.
Management has already guided for a softer start to fiscal 2026, forecasting Q1 EPS to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage due largely to acquisition-related timing impacts from the SRS integration. For the full year, the company expects total sales growth of 2.5%–4.5%, comparable sales ranging from flat to up 2%, and adjusted EPS growth between flat and 4%. Gross margin is projected to face near-term pressure, particularly in the first half, reflecting the ongoing integration of SRS, the company’s contractor-focused acquisition.
The professional contractor segment remains Home Depot’s key long-term growth driver. Management expects SRS organic sales growth in the mid-single digits and plans to expand its footprint with approximately 15 new Home Depot stores and 40–50 additional SRS locations during fiscal 2026.
Tariffs and macro uncertainty remain major risks heading into earnings. CFO Richard McPhail recently noted that the company is assessing the potential impact of new import tariffs following recent Supreme Court developments, while persistent mortgage-rate pressure and cautious consumer sentiment continue to weigh on discretionary home improvement demand. Supply chain costs and inventory management will also remain in focus from a margin perspective.
At the same time, Home Depot continues to invest in technology and AI-driven capabilities aimed at improving the Pro customer experience. CEO Ted Decker recently highlighted that AI-powered project management tools are helping drive efficiency and engagement within the contractor ecosystem, an area increasingly viewed as a competitive differentiator.
Wall Street analysts maintain a Buy rating on the stock, while Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating system remains more cautious with a Hold rating [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HD/ratings/quant-ratings], citing valuation and growth concerns.
* CONSENSUS EPS ESTIMATE: $3.41
* CONSENSUS REVENUE ESTIMATE: $41.51B
* EARNINGS INSIGHT: Home Depot has consistently outperformed revenue estimates in the past 6 of the 8 quarters and EPS forecasts in 50% of those reports.
ALSO REPORTING: Amer Sports (AS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AS]), CAVA Group (CAVA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CAVA]), Oxford Lane Capital (OXLC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OXLC]), Bilibili (BILI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BILI]), Eagle Point Credit (ECC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ECC]), Keysight Technologies (KEYS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KEYS]), Toll Brothers (TOL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TOL]), Ceragon Networks (CRNT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CRNT]), Canaan (CAN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CAN]), 8x8 (EGHT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EGHT]), KE Holdings (BEKE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BEKE]), ZTO Express (ZTO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ZTO]), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RRGB]), and more.
WEDNESDAY, MAY 20
NVIDIA CORPORATION (NVDA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NVDA])
NVIDIA (NVDA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NVDA]) is set to report fiscal Q1 2027 results after Wednesday’s market close in what is widely viewed as the most closely watched earnings release of the week and potentially the entire earnings season. Consensus estimates call for revenue of roughly $79B, above the company’s own $78B midpoint guidance, with investor focus expected to center less on the headline beat and more on Q2 guidance, Blackwell demand trends, and margin expansion.
NVIDIA’s Q4 FY2026 results were exceptionally strong, with revenue climbing to $68.1B, ahead of consensus by roughly $2.5B, while EPS of $1.62 also topped expectations. Data Center revenue surged 75% Y/Y to a record $62.3B, and management guided Q1 FY2027 revenue well above prior Wall Street estimates. Despite the strong print, shares fell more than 5% following the release, marking the third consecutive quarter of post-earnings weakness as expectations around AI infrastructure spending remain extraordinarily elevated.
The rollout of the Blackwell architecture remains the single most important driver heading into earnings. Blackwell-based NVLink and Ethernet AI solutions fueled a 64% sequential increase in networking revenue during Q1 FY2026, while hyperscale cloud providers accounted for nearly half of Data Center revenue. CEO Jensen Huang recently stated at GTC 2026 that NVIDIA could generate as much as $1T in cumulative revenue from the Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin platforms across calendar years 2026 and 2027, highlighting the scale of expected AI infrastructure demand. Investors will also be looking for any incremental commentary around the Rubin architecture, which is expected to ramp up in the second half of calendar year 2026.
Margins remain another critical focus area. NVIDIA guided for a non-GAAP gross margin of 75% plus or minus 50 basis points for Q1 FY2027, signaling continued recovery from FY2026 levels that were pressured by H20-related China inventory charges. A stronger-than-expected Blackwell mix or improved yields could push margins toward the upper end of guidance and potentially help reverse the stock’s recent post-earnings selloff pattern.
China continues to represent the largest overhang. NVIDIA’s guidance excludes Data Center revenue contributions from China amid ongoing export restrictions and geopolitical tensions tied to AI chips. The company has also remained at the center of U.S.-China AI policy discussions following reports that DeepSeek may have used Blackwell processors in ways that could conflict with export-control rules.
Institutional expectations remain aggressive. Citi recently raised GPU shipment estimates to 11.2M units for FY2027, implying 58% Y/Y growth, while projecting annual revenue of roughly $284B. Goldman Sachs has forecast Q1 revenue of approximately $80B, above broader consensus estimates, reflecting continued optimism around Blackwell demand and AI infrastructure spending.
Wall Street analysts broadly maintain a Strong Buy rating on NVIDIA, while Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating system remains more cautious with a Hold rating [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NVDA/ratings/quant-ratings], primarily due to valuation concerns following the stock’s massive multi-year rally.
* CONSENSUS EPS ESTIMATE: $1.78
* CONSENSUS REVENUE ESTIMATE: $79.17B
* EARNINGS INSIGHT: NVIDIA has beaten both EPS and revenue estimates in every quarter for the past two years, consistently delivering results well above guidance.
ALSO REPORTING: Target (TGT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TGT]), Lowe's Companies (LOW [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LOW]), Intuit (INTU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INTU]), TJX Companies (TJX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TJX]), Analog Devices (ADI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ADI]), ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ZIM]), VF (VFC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VFC]), Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SBLK]), Baozun (BZUN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BZUN]), Hasbro (HAS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HAS]), Perion Network (PERI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PERI]), Urban Outfitters (URBN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/URBN]), and more.
THURSDAY, MAY 21
NIO (NIO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NIO])
NIO (NIO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NIO]), the Chinese premium smart EV maker, is scheduled to report Q1 2026 results before Thursday’s U.S. market open, with investors closely watching whether the company can sustain its strong delivery momentum and newly achieved profitability.
NIO delivered 83,465 vehicles during Q1 2026, up approximately 98% Y/Y and above the high end of its guidance range of 80,000–83,000 units. March deliveries alone surged 136% Y/Y to 35,486 vehicles, while cumulative deliveries surpassed 1.08M as of March 31. Growth was broad-based across all three brands - the flagship NIO lineup, family-focused ONVO, and compact FIREFLY platform, suggesting improving demand across multiple customer segments rather than dependence on a single vehicle cycle.
The quarter follows the strongest financial performance in the company’s history. In Q4 2025, NIO reported its first-ever quarterly profit, posting GAAP operating income of RMB 810M and net profit of RMB 300M, compared with a RMB 7.1B loss a year earlier. Revenue climbed nearly 76% Y/Y to RMB 34.7B, while vehicle gross margin improved to 18.1% and total gross margin reached 17.5%. The company also generated positive free cash flow for a second consecutive quarter and achieved positive operating cash flow for the full year 2025, materially improving investor confidence around the sustainability of its business model.
Management previously guided Q1 revenue to RMB 24.48B–25.17B, implying growth of roughly 90% Y/Y, while indicating that vehicle gross margin should remain broadly stable vs. Q4 levels. Investors will be particularly focused on whether NIO can maintain margins near 18% while scaling deliveries aggressively, as that would reinforce confidence in the company’s longer-term profitability targets. Management has also reiterated its goal of achieving full-year non-GAAP profitability in 2026.
On the technology side, NIO continues expanding its intelligent driving ecosystem. The latest version of the NIO WorldModel platform was rolled out earlier this year and has now been deployed across more than 460,000 Banyan-equipped vehicles, strengthening the company’s positioning within China’s increasingly competitive smart EV market. Management expects quarterly R&D spending to remain around RMB 2.0B–2.5B while keeping SG&A expenses controlled at roughly 10% of revenue, reflecting a stronger focus on operational discipline.
Despite the operational improvements, broader U.S.-China tensions and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on valuation sentiment for Chinese ADRs, remaining a key overhang for the stock heading into earnings.
Wall Street analysts maintain a Buy rating, while Seeking Alpha’s Quant system sits at Neutral [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NIO/ratings/quant-ratings#source=firstLevelUrl%3Asymbol%7CbiSectionAsset%3ARatingSummary%7CbiName%3AQuant_rating], reflecting ongoing concerns around profitability and valuation.
* CONSENSUS EPS ESTIMATE: -$0.12
* CONSENSUS REVENUE ESTIMATE: $3.69B
* EARNINGS INSIGHT: NIO has topped EPS and revenue estimates in just 2 of the past 8 quarters.
WALMART (WMT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/WMT])
Walmart (WMT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/WMT]), the world’s largest retailer, is set to report fiscal Q1 2027 results before Thursday’s market open in what is expected to be one of the most closely watched consumer bellwether earnings releases of the season. Investor focus is likely to center on tariff-related pressures, consumer spending resilience, and the sustainability of Walmart’s improving e-commerce profitability.
In its most recent quarter, Walmart reported adjusted EPS of $0.74, up 12.1% Y/Y, on revenue of $190.7B, which increased 5.6%. Global e-commerce sales surged 24% and accounted for 23% of total net sales, while U.S. comparable sales rose 4.6%, supported by higher transaction volumes and continued market share gains across income groups, particularly among higher-income consumers. Importantly, management confirmed that e-commerce achieved profitability both in the U.S. and globally during Q1 FY2026, a key milestone that has strengthened the long-term margin expansion narrative.
For Q1 FY2027, Walmart guided for constant-currency sales growth of 3.5%–4.5%, operating income growth of 4%–6%, and EPS in the range of $0.63–$0.65. The company also noted that current foreign exchange trends could provide an approximately 150-basis-point benefit to reported sales and around 200 basis points to operating income. Full-year guidance calls for EPS of $2.75–$2.85 alongside revenue growth of 3.5%–4.5%, while Wall Street expects FY2027 EPS of roughly $2.89.
Tariffs remain the biggest near-term overhang heading into earnings. CEO Doug McMillon recently acknowledged that Walmart cannot fully absorb the impact of rising import duties given the company’s already narrow retail margins. With roughly one-third of Walmart’s U.S. merchandise sourced internationally, including from China, Mexico, Canada, and Vietnam, additional tariff escalation could pressure margins and pricing flexibility. Management previously declined to issue specific Q2 operating income guidance due to uncertainty around the tariff environment.
At the same time, Walmart continues to expand higher-margin businesses beyond traditional retail. Walmart Connect advertising revenue in the U.S. grew 41% in the previous quarter, while membership fee revenue increased 15.1%, helping diversify profit streams and improve the company’s overall margin profile.
Wall Street analysts maintain a Strong Buy consensus on the stock, while Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating system remains more cautious with a Hold rating [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/WMT/ratings/quant-ratings], primarily reflecting valuation concerns.
* CONSENSUS EPS ESTIMATE: $0.66
* CONSENSUS REVENUE ESTIMATE: $174.72B
* EARNINGS INSIGHT: Walmart has beaten EPS estimates in 7 of the past 8 quarters and missed revenue estimates twice in that span.
ALSO REPORTING: Zoom Communications (ZM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ZM]), Deere & Company (DE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DE]), Workday (WDAY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/WDAY]), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TTWO]), Ross Stores (ROST [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ROST]), NetEase (NTES [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NTES]), Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VIPS]), Advance Auto Parts (AAP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAP]), Copart (CPRT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CPRT]), Ralph Lauren (RL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RL]), Lightspeed Commerce (LSPD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LSPD]), Flowers Foods (FLO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FLO]), Deckers Brands (DECK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DECK]), and more.
FRIDAY, MAY 22
The week wraps up on a lighter note, with only a handful of earnings scheduled for Friday's pre-market session. Notable names include Global Ship Lease (GSL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GSL]), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BAH]), BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BJ]), So-Young International (SY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SY]), and more.
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* Nvidia At All-Time Highs: Why I'm Holding Into Print [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4904526-nvidia-at-all-time-highs-why-im-holding-into-print]
* Zoom price target upped at Citi as firm still sees 'path for accelerating growth' [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4593751-zoom-price-target-upped-at-citi-as-firm-still-sees-path-for-accelerating-growth]
* AI chip rally widens beyond Nvidia, Tech Contrarians says [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4593704-ai-chip-rally-widens-beyond-nvidia-tech-contrarians-says]
- Catalyst Watch: Nvidia blockbuster, PMIs, GTA 6 watch, and the Apple Store turns 25
May 15, 2026
[Skyline of Lower Manhattan]
Art Wager
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch - a breakdown of some of next week's actionable events that stand out. Read more about the events that may impact stock prices next week.
MONDAY - MAY 18
* VOLATILITY WATCH - Intel (INTC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INTC]) and Ondas (ONDS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ONDS]) are set up for another volatile week of trading based on options volatility. The most overbought stocks per their 14-day relative strength index include Robo.ai (AIIO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AIIO]), Bandwidth (BAND [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BAND]), and Vishay Precision (VPG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VPG]). The most oversold stocks per their 14-day Relative Strength Index include SunCar (SDA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SDA]), EPAM Systems (EPAM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EPAM]), and Zoetis (ZTS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ZTS]). Short interest is elevated on PureCycle Technologies (PCT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PCT]) and Sunrun (RUN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RUN]) again.
* EARNINGS WATCH - Notable companies due to report include Baidu (BIDU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BIDU]).
* DIVIDEND WATCH - Companies that have an ex-dividend date coming next week include Carnival Corporation (CCL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CCL]), Chevron (CVX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CVX]), Alcoa (AA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AA]), and Valero Energy (VLO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VLO]).
* INDE UPDATES - Lumentum Holdings (LITE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LITE]) will be officially added to the Nasdaq 100 Index. SharkNinja (SN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SN]) will jump to the S&P MidCap 400 Index, replacing Flowers Foods (FLO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FLO]), which is simultaneously moving into the S&P SmallCap 600.
* IPO WATCH - Investment bank Lincoln International (LCLN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LCLN]) is expected to price its IPO during the week and begin to trade. The quiet periods expire for Yesway (YSWY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/YSWY]), X-Energy (XE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XE]), Elmet Group (ELMT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ELMT]), and National Healthcare Properties (NHP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NHP]) to free up analysts to post ratings. SpaceX's (SPACE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPACE]) IPO prospectus could be released during the week.
* ALL WEEK - Dell Technologies World 2026 will begin in Las Vegas, Nevada. The conference will feature keynote addresses from Dell (DELL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DELL]) management and will also include a presentation from NVIDIA (NVDA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NVDA]) CEO Jensen Huang.
* ALL DAY - The two-day GamesBeat Summit will feature updates from entertainment and technology executives.
* ALL DAY - The three-day J.P. Morgan Global Technology, Media, and Communications Conference will begin. IBM (IBM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IBM]), CoreWeave (CRWV [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CRWV]) and Mastercard (MA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MA]) are among the notable companies presenting.
TUESDAY - MAY 19
* EARNINGS WATCH - Notable investor events include Home Depot (HD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HD]), Toll Brothers (TOL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TOL]), CAVA Group (CAVA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CAVA]), and Amer Sports (AS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AS]). Options trading implies double-digit swings for Hesai (HSAI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HSAI]) and Canaan (CAN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CAN]) after their reports are released.
* INDEX UPDATES - F&G Annuities & Life (FG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FG]) will be added to the S&P SmallCap 600 to replace Mister Car Wash (MCW [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MCW]).
* ALL DAY - It is the 25th anniversary of the opening of the first Apple (AAPL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAPL]) store.
* ALL DAY - Vertiv (VRT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VRT]) will hold a two-day investor conference to provide updates on the company's strategic initiatives, latest innovations, financial outlook, and overall market trends.
* ALL DAY - Shareholders of Two Harbors Investment (TWO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TWO]) are scheduled to meet to vote on the highly contested merger agreement with CrossCountry Mortgage.
* ALL DAY - Alphabet (GOOG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOG]) (GOOGL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOGL]) will hold its annual Google I/O developer conference in Mountain View, California. The conference will showcase Google's latest AI breakthroughs and product updates across the company, including Gemini, Android, and other technologies, with keynote addresses from Google leaders.
* 1:00 P.M. Expedia Group (EXPE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EXPE]) will webcast the general opening session of Explore 26, which is its annual partner event where the company will share innovations focused on improving the complete travel experience.
WEDNESDAY - MAY 20
* EARNINGS WATCH - Notable companies due to report include Nvidia (NVDA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NVDA]), Analog Devices (ADI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ADI]), TJX Companies (TJX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TJX]), Lowe's (LOW [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LOW]), and Target (TGT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TGT]). Options trading implies double-digit swings for e.l.f. Beauty (ELF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ELF]) and Aevex (AVEX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AVEX]) after their reports are released.
* ALL DAY - Notable events include the Sohn Hong Kong Investment Leaders Conference in Hong Kong, Citigroup's (C [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/C]) annual meeting, Amazon's (AMZN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMZN]) annual meeting, and the B. Riley Securities Investor Conference.
* ALL DAY - IEA will publish its Global EV Outlook report.
* ALL DAY - Circana will release U.S. video game sales results for the period covering April 5 to May 2.
* 2:00 P.M. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its last meeting.
* 5:00 P.M. Nvidia (NVDA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NVDA]) will hold its earnings conference call. Analysts expect the focus on the call will be data center performance, hyperscaler and sovereign AI capex visibility, and management’s commentary on AI compute demand. Options trading implies a 6% share price move for Nvidia after the report drops. Stocks that have been jolted in the past during Nvidia's update include AMD (AMD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMD]), Intel (INTC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INTC]), Super Micro Computer (SMCI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SMCI]), and Broadcom (AVGO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AVGO]). Major Nvidia suppliers Fabrinet (FN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FN]) and Astera Labs (ALAB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ALAB]) will also be on watch.
THURSDAY - MAY 21
* EARNINGS WATCH - Notable companies due to report include Walmart (WMT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/WMT]), Deere (DE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DE]), Ross Stores (ROST [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ROST]), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TTWO]), NIO (NIO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NIO]), Workday (WDAY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/WDAY]), and Ralph Lauren (RL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RL]). Options trading implies a double-digit swing for Lionsgate (LION [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LION]) and Advance Auto Parts (AAP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAP]) after they report.
* ALL DAY - Flash PMIs for economies around the world will give investors a chance to assess the economic impact of the Middle East conflict.
* ALL DAY - Notable events include Stellantis' (STLA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/STLA]) Investor Day, Amkor's (AMKR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMKR]) Investor Day, Cummins' (CMI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CMI]) Analyst Day, Badger Meter's (BMI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BMI]) Investor Day, and Tenable's (TENB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TENB]) Investor Day.
* 8:30 A.M. The Philadelphia Fed Index report will be released. Economists will be watching to see if the index stays in expansionary territory.
* 4:30 P.M. Take-Two Interactive (TTWO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TTWO]) will hold its earnings call. The stock could be volatile amid growing speculation that the company will release a new trailer for Grand Theft Auto 6 during the week and allow retailers to start taking pre-orders. Options trading implies a post-earnings move of more than 9%.
FRIDAY - MAY 22
* EARNINGS WATCH - Notable companies due to report include BJ's Wholesale (BJ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BJ]).
* ALL DAY - FTSE Russell will publish the preliminary lists of companies that are slated to be added to or removed from the Russell indexes, based on their market capitalizations and other eligibility criteria. Stocks slated for addition often see increased demand, while those facing deletion may experience selling pressure.
_Seeking Alpha Editor Josh Fineman contributed to this article._
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- Prediction: Cava Stock Will Soar After Earnings
May 15, 2026
Key Points
Cava reports its first-quarter results on Tuesday afternoon. Analysts see a sharp decline in profitability, and comps growth has decelerated sharply. A better understanding of Cava's target audience and year-over-year comparisons might make you more bullish on the chain's ability to weather the storm next week.10 stocks we like better than Cava Group ›
In a time when a lot of restaurant stocks are causing a bout of indigestion for shareholders, Cava Group (NYSE: CAVA) offers the potential of a winning recipe. The fast-growing chain offering fresh takes on Mediterranean and Greek-inspired food is cultivating a growing fan base. It's one of the few fast-casual concepts still posting positive store-level comps, for now.
That winning streak could end next week. Cava's historically positive year-over-year growth at the individual store level has been decelerating sharply over the past year. With economic and even dietary trends gnawing away at restaurant operators, the chain could be on the verge of posting its first decline in same-restaurant sales as a public company.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
Image source: Cava Group.
It's going to be a feta finish
Cava reports its first-quarter results on Tuesday of next week, shortly after the market close. Momentum is not in its corner. Just check out how same-restaurant sales have played out over the past five financial updates.
Q4 2024: 21.2%Q1 2025: 10.8%Q2 2025: 2.1%Q3 2025: 1.9%Q4 2025: 0.5%
The trend is problematic. Cava's customers keep tapping the brakes. After four consecutive periods of deceleration, there isn't a lot of air between its previous quarter's 0.5% uptick and zero. The restaurant operator has never posted negative comps since going public three years ago. Is it about to happen?
The market wouldn't be surprised if restaurant-level sales declined when Tuesday afternoon's report becomes official. It's not just the way popularity has slowed at the unit level. A lot of new trends are weighing on the industry.
Gas prices are sharply higher now than they were three months ago, making it cost more to head out to your local Cava or to pay a premium to have it delivered. It also means less disposable income to spend on things like eating outside of the home. Then you get to the GLP-1 boom. Cava falls under a healthier lifestyle category than many chains, but folks are eating less when they're on the weekly injectables. If there were ever a time for Cava to prove mortal it would have to be its upcoming financial update.
Looking at the bright side of the light side
There are some reasons to be hopeful on the comps front. Let's start with the math. The unimpressive 0.5% for the fourth quarter of last year didn't even keep up with inflation, but did you catch that comparable-restaurant sales soared 21.2% in the previous holiday quarter? Comps for the last quarter are still 21.8% higher than they were two years earlier. The year-over-year comparisons will get easier after the 10.8% step-up in the first quarter of last year. The burden will get even easier for the next three quarters of this year.
It's not just the math that will get more kind this year. Let's talk about Cava's core market and strong brand loyalty. At the time of its initial public offering (IPO) in the spring of 2023, Cava noted that its largest age bracket was diners aged 25 to 34, accounting for 28% of its traffic. GLP-1's stronghold is among middle-aged users aged 40 to 65. There is also the wealth factor to consider. A whopping 37% of Cava diners had household incomes above $150,000, with 59% above $100,000 -- and this was three years ago.
Expectations are also low. Analysts see earnings declining to $0.17 a share, with the 26% jump in sales fueled by the concept's heady expansion. The stock has bounced back sharply from its November lows, but it's still trading 56% below its year-earlier peak. With the year-over-year comparisons setting up the potential for positive comps and encouraging guidance, Cava could burst higher next week -- just as its offerings burst with flavor.
Should you buy stock in Cava Group right now?
Before you buy stock in Cava Group, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Cava Group wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $468,861!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,445,212!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 1,013% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 210% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of May 15, 2026.
Rick Munarriz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Cava Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
- Prediction: Cava Stock Will Soar After Earnings
May 15, 2026
In a time when a lot of restaurant stocks are causing a bout of indigestion for shareholders, Cava Group (NYSE: CAVA) offers the potential of a winning recipe. The fast-growing chain offering fresh takes on Mediterranean and Greek-inspired food is cultivating a growing fan base. It's one of the few fast-casual concepts still posting positive store-level comps, for now.
That winning streak could end next week. Cava's historically positive year-over-year growth at the individual store level has been decelerating sharply over the past year. With economic and even dietary trends gnawing away at restaurant operators, the chain could be on the verge of posting its first decline in same-restaurant sales as a public company.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »Image source: Cava Group.
It's going to be a feta finish
Cava reports its first-quarter results on Tuesday of next week, shortly after the market close. Momentum is not in its corner. Just check out how same-restaurant sales have played out over the past five financial updates.
Q4 2024: 21.2% Q1 2025: 10.8% Q2 2025: 2.1% Q3 2025: 1.9% Q4 2025: 0.5%
The trend is problematic. Cava's customers keep tapping the brakes. After four consecutive periods of deceleration, there isn't a lot of air between its previous quarter's 0.5% uptick and zero. The restaurant operator has never posted negative comps since going public three years ago. Is it about to happen?
The market wouldn't be surprised if restaurant-level sales declined when Tuesday afternoon's report becomes official. It's not just the way popularity has slowed at the unit level. A lot of new trends are weighing on the industry.
Gas prices are sharply higher now than they were three months ago, making it cost more to head out to your local Cava or to pay a premium to have it delivered. It also means less disposable income to spend on things like eating outside of the home. Then you get to the GLP-1 boom. Cava falls under a healthier lifestyle category than many chains, but folks are eating less when they're on the weekly injectables. If there were ever a time for Cava to prove mortal it would have to be its upcoming financial update.
Looking at the bright side of the light side
There are some reasons to be hopeful on the comps front. Let's start with the math. The unimpressive 0.5% for the fourth quarter of last year didn't even keep up with inflation, but did you catch that comparable-restaurant sales soared 21.2% in the previous holiday quarter? Comps for the last quarter are still 21.8% higher than they were two years earlier. The year-over-year comparisons will get easier after the 10.8% step-up in the first quarter of last year. The burden will get even easier for the next three quarters of this year.
Story Continues
It's not just the math that will get more kind this year. Let's talk about Cava's core market and strong brand loyalty. At the time of its initial public offering (IPO) in the spring of 2023, Cava noted that its largest age bracket was diners aged 25 to 34, accounting for 28% of its traffic. GLP-1's stronghold is among middle-aged users aged 40 to 65. There is also the wealth factor to consider. A whopping 37% of Cava diners had household incomes above $150,000, with 59% above $100,000 -- and this was three years ago.
Expectations are also low. Analysts see earnings declining to $0.17 a share, with the 26% jump in sales fueled by the concept's heady expansion. The stock has bounced back sharply from its November lows, but it's still trading 56% below its year-earlier peak. With the year-over-year comparisons setting up the potential for positive comps and encouraging guidance, Cava could burst higher next week -- just as its offerings burst with flavor.
Should you buy stock in Cava Group right now?
Before you buy stock in Cava Group, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Cava Group wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $468,861!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,445,212!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 1,013% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 210% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of May 15, 2026.
Rick Munarriz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Cava Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Prediction: Cava Stock Will Soar After Earnings was originally published by The Motley Fool
View Comments
- CAVA: The Restaurant Everyone Loves At A Price Nobody Should Pay (Earnings Preview)
May 15, 2026 · seekingalpha.com
CAVA Group, Inc. is a strong operator, but its nearly 6x sales valuation is difficult to justify amid stretched growth expectations. Restaurant-level economics are robust, with 21.4% margins and 2.5–3 year paybacks, but long-term AUV and margin expansion face practical limits. Current valuation implies aggressive growth and margin assumptions; even optimistic scenarios yield price targets well below the current $76 stock price.
- Prediction: Cava Stock Will Soar After Earnings
May 15, 2026 · fool.com
Cava reports its first-quarter results on Tuesday afternoon. Analysts see a sharp decline in profitability, and comps growth has decelerated sharply.
- Nvidia earnings alone won’t rescue the S&P 500 from its new sell signal
May 15, 2026
- Getty Images/iStockphoto
Some significant, market-influencing companies are reporting next week — led by Nvidia and also including Cava Group, Home Depot, Target and Walmart.
Companies that could report earnings surprises show a particular trading pattern of implied volatility heading into the earnings. For example, the CAVA CAVA two-year chart below shows two graphs — the stock price is on the bottom and implied volatility is on the top. Implied volatility increases into a spike and then plunges, creating a sawtooth pattern.
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These implied-volatility increases occur as the earnings date approaches; then implied volatility plunges after the earnings are announced. It is actually something of an optical illusion — for the options are not getting more expensive in terms of price as the earnings date approaches, but are remaining the same. That is, the options market prices the straddle prior to the earnings, and more or less keeps it at that price until the earnings are announced.
An option that doesn’t lose value to time decay (which these don’t over the couple of weeks heading into the earnings) has the appearance of increasing implied volatility. So, every week when we publish the list of potential postearnings moves, they are stocks with this sawtooth pattern surrounding past earnings dates.-
The table below highlights stocks to watch next week before earnings. This list normally is comprised of stocks whose options have higher implied volatility. That is, the options market is expecting a potentially volatile move after the earnings news.
Our approach is to attempt to buy the shortest-term straddle possible (generally the one expiring on the Friday after the earnings reporting date) and to exit at the close of the first full day of trading after the earnings have been reported. For the stocks in this table, that would mean buying the straddles expiring on May 22.
Specifically, the columns below (from left to right) are:
Date: The earnings reporting date.
Time: Whether the earnings are to be reported before the market opens (“AM”) or after the close (“PM”).
Symbol: The stock’s ticker symbol.
Needed: The most we would pay for that near-term straddle, with the price of the straddle expressed as a percentage of the underlying stock price. In reality, this is the percentage move that is smaller than six of the past 10 postearnings moves in this stock.
OptVol: The 20-day average of total options volume on this stock. Low numbers here indicate a potentially illiquid situation.
Story Continues
Date Time Symbol Needed OptVol 5/19/26 AM HD 1.27% 20,800 5/19/26 PM CAVA 6.99% 6,673 5/20/26 AM TGT 6.74% 26,500 5/20/26 PM NVDA 3.24% 2,486,086 5/21/26 AM WMT 4.49% 88,847 5/21/26 PM DECK 14.17% 6,292 5/21/26 PM WDAY 6.21% 8,251 5/21/26 PM ZM 8.00% 20,149
Currently, none of the at-the-money straddles on the stocks in the above table are trading for less that the “count” percentage. But they should be checked just before the earnings are announced, for that would be the time to buy them if they do satisfy the “count” requirement. NVDA straddles are notoriously overpriced heading into earnings in recent quarters, although last quarter produced a 5% move after the earnings announcement.
New recommendation: Satellogic (SATL)
Satellogic SATL has had a couple of sharp moves higher this year, and a third may be starting. The stock went public in early 2022 and traded at a price of $10 for a brief while. Then it went into an extended decline until this year. Now it is trading at the highest levels since early 2022.
Stock volume patterns are excellent and so are options volume patterns. Both are in what we call strong momentum volume moves. That fact, coupled with the stock-price breakout to new relative highs, makes this an attractive speculation.
Buy 4 SATL (June 18) 8 callsin line with the market. Stop out on a close below $6.50.-
Stock-market insight: First sell signals emerge
The S&P 500 SPX continues to make new highs, but the advance is narrowing considerably as both breadth and new highs on the NYSE are beginning to lag.
After an advance of this strength and speed, support levels are minimal. There is tentative support at 7,340 and at 7,275 (where a gap would be closed on the SPX chart). Below there, 7,050 to 7,175 is another support area, and then there is major support at 7,000.
SPX continues to trade above its +3σ “modified Bollinger band” (mBB) for the most part. A “classic” mBB sell signal will occur when SPX finally closes below its +3σ band; that would occur today on a close below 7,387. The bands are rising rapidly now, along with SPX and its 20-day moving average.
SPX first closed above its +4σ band back on April 14. In the month that has followed, SPX has stayed above that band, for the most part. That is an amazing streak and is quite rare. But even if we get a classic sell signal (which we don’t trade), there is no guarantee that the actionable MVB sell signal will follow.-
While breadth and new highs might not be keeping pace with this rally, call buying certainly is. Equity-only put-call ratios continue to plummet, thus remaining on buy signals for the stock market. The weighted ratio is at its lowest levels since November 2021, but that only means it’s overbought. There won’t be sell signals from these ratios until they roll over and begin to trend higher.--
New lows outnumbered new highs again on the NYSE for the second day in a row. While new lows have surpassed new highs by only a few issues, it is enough to stop out the previous buy signal from April 9. This indicator is now in a neutral status for the moment. Yesterday was an unusual day, in that both new highs and new lows on the NYSE numbered more than 100.
VIX VIX has not fallen recently, while SPX has risen. This indicates that traders are still a bit wary of this market and have likely been buying SPX puts to hedge long positions. VIX continues to hover in the 17 to 18 range, which is also near both its 20- and 200-day moving averages (circled area on the accompanying VIX chart). Currently, there is no trend of VIX signal in place.-
The construct of volatility derivatives remains quite bullish in its outlook for stocks, though, since the term structures slope upwards and the VIX futures are trading at a premium to VIX.
The fact that SPX is making new all-time highs is bullish, but the first confirmed sell signal has now emerged. We will add positions as our indicators dictate. Continue to roll deeply in-the-money calls upward.
New recommendation: Breadth-oscillator sell signals
As noted in the commentary above, both breadth oscillators are now on sell signals once again. Therefore we are going to a bearish SPY SPY spread to our “portfolio.”
Buy 1 SPY (June 18) at-the-money putand sell 1 SPY (June 18) put with a striking price 40 points lower.
We will hold this spread as long as either of the two breadth oscillators remains on a sell signal.
Follow-up action
We are using a standard rolling procedure for our SPY spreads: In any vertical bull or bear spread, if the underlying hits the short strike, then roll the entire spread. That would be roll up in the case of a call bull spread or roll down in the case of a bear put spread. Stay in the same expiration and keep the distance between the strikes the same unless otherwise instructed.
Also, for outright long options, roll if they become 8 points in-the-money.
Long 1 expiring TSEM (May 15) 220 call and short 1 TSEM (May 15) 235 call: The semiconductor sector is exploding, and TSEM TSEM was up 50 points just today. The position has been rolled up several times. Now, roll to this spread: Buy 1 TSEM (June 5) 270 call and sell 1 TSEM (June 5) 295 call. Going forward, roll up — 25 points on each side — if TSEM trades at 235 or higher.
Long 1 BKR (July 17) 65 call and long 1 BKR (July 17) 60 put: Roll the BKR BKR call up at 75 and roll the put down at 50.
Long 2 expiring ARKK(May 15) 78 calls: Roll to the ARKK (June 18) 78 calls. The trailing closing stop remains at $76 for these ARKK ARKK calls.
Long 1 SFL (Aug. 21) 10 put and 13 call: The calls were rolled up when SFL SFL traded at $13 on May 13. Sell the puts now and begin to use a trailing closing stop at $11.80 for the calls.
Long 1 SPY (June 18) 730 call and short 1 SPY (June 18) 755 call: This is based on the “new highs versus new lows” buy signal. New lows outnumbered new highs on the NYSE for the last two days, so close out this position now.
Long 1 SPY (Jun 18) 730 call and short 1 SPY (Jun 18) 755 call: This is based on the equity-only put-call-ratio buy signals. They will remain in place until the ratios bottom out and begin to trend higher.
Long 2 expiring MHK (May 15) 105 calls: Roll to the MHK (June 18) 105 calls. We will hold these calls as long as the weighted put-call ratio of MHK MHK remains on a buy signal.
Long 3 CCL (June 18) 27 calls: Sell these CCL CCL calls now, since the put-call ratio has rolled over to a sell signal.
Long 3 expiring BWA (May 15) 55 calls: Roll to the BWA BWA (June 18) 67.5 calls. We will continue to hold as long as the put-call ratio is on a buy signal.
Long 1 BNS (Sep. 18) 75 straddle: Roll the calls up to the 85 strike if BNS BNS trades at 85. Similarly, roll the puts down to the 65 strike if BNS trades at $65.
Long 2 USO (June 18) 100 puts and short 2 USO (June 18) 90 puts: Continue to hold this USO USO position without a stop for now.
Send questions to: lmcmillan@optionstrategist.com
Lawrence G. McMillan is president of McMillan Analysis, a registered investment and commodity trading advisor. McMillan may hold positions in securities recommended in this report, both personally and in client accounts. He is an experienced trader and money manager and is the author of “Options as a Strategic Investment.”
©McMillan Analysis Corporation is registered with the SEC as an investment advisor and with the CFTC as a commodity trading advisor. The information in this newsletter has been carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The officers or directors of McMillan Analysis Corporation, or accounts managed by such persons may have positions in the securities recommended in the advisory.
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- Exploring Analyst Estimates for Cava (CAVA) Q1 Earnings, Beyond Revenue and EPS
May 14, 2026
Analysts on Wall Street project that Cava Group (CAVA) will announce quarterly earnings of $0.17 per share in its forthcoming report, representing a decline of 22.7% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $418.5 million, increasing 26.1% from the same quarter last year.
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 3.7% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This reflects how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reevaluated their initial estimates during this timeframe.
Ahead of a company's earnings disclosure, it is crucial to give due consideration to changes in earnings estimates. These revisions serve as a noteworthy factor in predicting potential investor reactions to the stock. Numerous empirical studies consistently demonstrate a strong relationship between trends in earnings estimate revision and the short-term price performance of a stock.
While investors usually depend on consensus earnings and revenue estimates to assess the business performance for the quarter, delving into analysts' forecasts for certain key metrics often provides a more comprehensive understanding.
That said, let's delve into the average estimates of some Cava metrics that Wall Street analysts commonly model and monitor.
The consensus estimate for 'Revenue- CAVA Restaurant' stands at $416.15 million. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +26.7%.
The average prediction of analysts places 'Revenue- Other' at $3.60 million. The estimate indicates a change of +7.5% from the prior-year quarter.
Analysts predict that the 'End of period CAVA Restaurants' will reach 458 . The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 382 .
Analysts forecast 'CAVA Same Restaurant Sales Growth' to reach 6.0%. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 10.8%.
Analysts expect 'Occupancy as a percentage of CAVA Revenue' to come in at 7.2%. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 7.4%.
The consensus among analysts is that 'New CAVA restaurant openings, including converted Zoes Kitchen locations' will reach 17 . Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 15 in the same quarter of the previous year.
Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Restaurant-Level profit- CAVA' should arrive at $104.52 million. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of $82.31 million.
View all Key Company Metrics for Cava here>>>
Shares of Cava have demonstrated returns of -18.3% over the past month compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +8.2% change. With a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), CAVA is expected to beat the overall market performance in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
Story Continues
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CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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- Alibaba Q4 Earnings Fall Short of Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y
May 14, 2026
Alibaba Group BABA reported non-GAAP earnings of 9 cents per ADS for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 92.62%. In domestic currency, the company reported non-GAAP earnings of RMB 0.62, down 95% year over year.
The company posted fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues of $35.28 billion. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.15%. In domestic currency, revenues of RMB 243.4 billion increased 3% year over year. Excluding disposed businesses of Sun Art and Intime, revenues increased 11% on a like-for-like basis.
The revenue growth was driven by accelerated performance in Cloud Intelligence Group and continued expansion of the quick commerce business, while aggressive investments in technology, quick commerce and user experiences significantly pressured margins. The company continues focusing on two strategic pillars: consumption and AI + Cloud.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited Price, Consensus and EPS SurpriseAlibaba Group Holding Limited Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Alibaba Group Holding Limited price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Alibaba Group Holding Limited Quote
Revenues by Segments
Alibaba China E-commerce Group (50.2% of Total Revenues): Alibaba generated RMB 122.2 billion ($17.7 billion) of revenues from the segment, which increased 6% from the year-ago quarter. Customer management revenues grew 1% year over year. Excluding the contra revenue impact from the new business development program, CMR would have grown 8% year over year on a like-for-like basis.
During the quarter, the company integrated Taobao and Tmall e-commerce services into the Qwen app and launched the Qwen Shopping Assistant, an AI agent providing end-to-end support across the shopping journey. For merchants, it rolled out Wukong, an AI-native enterprise agent.
The number of 88VIP members, BABA's highest-spending consumer group, continued to increase by double digits year over year, surpassing 62 million, demonstrating strong platform momentum to attract and retain a high-spending and loyal consumer base.
E-commerce Business (78.8% of China E-commerce Revenues): The core e-commerce vertical generated revenues of RMB 96.3 billion ($14 billion), reflecting a 1% decrease from the year-ago quarter, primarily due to lower revenues from certain direct sales businesses.
Quick Commerce (16.4% of China E-commerce Revenues): The quick commerce business generated revenues of RMB 20 billion ($2.9 billion), which grew 57% year over year, driven by order growth from the rollout of "Taobao Instant Commerce." The business continued to improve unit economics and increase average order value quarter over quarter, driven by order mix optimization.
China Commerce Wholesale (4.9% of China E-commerce Revenues): The China wholesale business generated revenues of RMB 5.9 billion ($861 million), up 3% year over year, primarily due to an increase in revenues from value-added services provided to paying members.
Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group or AIDC (14.6% of Total Revenues): The segment comprises AliExpress, Trendyol, Lazada and other international businesses. BABA generated RMB 35.4 billion ($5.1 billion) in revenues from the segment, which grew 6% from the year-ago quarter. AIDC narrowed losses significantly year over year, approaching break-even, driven by logistics optimization and operating efficiency. AliExpress' "Brand+" program saw the penetration of quarterly transacting consumers surpass 30%.
International Commerce Retail (81.6% of International Revenues): Revenues were RMB 28.9 billion ($4.2 billion), up 5% from the year-ago quarter, driven by revenue increases contributed by AliExpress and other international businesses, partly offset by a decrease in Lazada revenues.
International Commerce Wholesale (18.4% of International Revenues): The business generated revenues of RMB 6.5 billion ($944 million), which rose 9% year over year, primarily due to an increase in revenues from cross-border related value-added services. Alibaba.com launched Accio Work, an agentic business platform for global small and medium-sized businesses.
Cloud Intelligence Group (17.1% of Total Revenues): The segment generated revenues of RMB 41.6 billion ($6 billion), up 38% from the year-ago quarter. Revenues from external customers grew 40% year over year, primarily driven by public cloud revenue growth and the increasing adoption of AI-related products.
AI-related product revenues reached RMB 9 billion and maintained triple-digit year-over-year growth for the 11th consecutive quarter, accounting for 30% of external cloud revenue. In March, the company launched Qwen3.6-Plus, delivering significant performance gains in coding and agentic programming with a native context window of up to 1 million tokens.
Alibaba also advanced specialized models, including HappyOyster, a world model for real-time creation and interaction, and HappyHorse, a multimodal model for video generation. T-Head Semiconductor's proprietary Zhenwu PPUs have been deployed in over 100,000 units on Alibaba Cloud's public cloud platform, with more than 30 leading automakers and autonomous driving companies leveraging the chips.
All Others (26.9% of Total Revenues): The segment's revenues were RMB 65.5 billion ($9.5 billion), reflecting a 21% year-over-year decrease, primarily due to the disposal of Sun Art and Intime businesses and a decrease in Cainiao revenues, partly offset by growth in Freshippo and Amap.
Story Continues
Operating Details
In the fiscal fourth quarter, sales and marketing expenses were RMB 53.4 billion ($7.7 billion), up significantly from the year-ago quarter. As a percentage of total revenues, the figure expanded to 21.9% from 15.3%, reflecting heavy investment in quick commerce and user acquisition of the Qwen app.
General and administrative expenses were RMB 9.9 billion ($1.4 billion), down year over year. Product development expenses were RMB 19 billion ($2.7 billion), or 7.8% of revenues, reflecting continued investment in technology and innovation, particularly in AI.
Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 16.4 billion ($2.4 billion), down 61% year over year due to strategic investments in technology, quick commerce and user experiences, partly offset by continued growth in customer management service and Cloud business and enhanced operating efficiencies. The adjusted EBITDA margin contracted to 7% from 18% in the prior year. Adjusted EBITA fell 84% to RMB 5.1 billion ($740 million), with the adjusted EBITA margin declining to 2% from 14%. The company reported a loss from operations of RMB 848 million ($123 million) against income from operations of RMB 28.5 billion in the prior-year quarter.
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow
As of March 31, 2026, cash and other liquid investments were RMB 520.8 billion ($75.5 billion), down from RMB 560.2 billion ($80.1 billion) as of Dec. 31, 2025.
Alibaba generated RMB 9.4 billion ($1.4 billion) in cash from operations, down 66% from RMB 27.5 billion in the prior-year quarter. Free cash flow was an outflow of RMB 17.3 billion ($2.5 billion), compared with an inflow of RMB 3.7 billion in the same quarter a year ago, mainly attributed to investments in quick commerce, user acquisition of the Qwen app and increased cloud infrastructure expenditure.
The board approved an annual cash dividend for fiscal 2026 of $0.13125 per ordinary share, or $1.05 per ADS, with the aggregate dividend amount totaling approximately $2.5 billion.
Zacks Rank & Stocks to Consider
Alibaba currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
Some better-ranked stocks in the broader Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector are CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA, Advance Auto Parts AAP and Kohl's KSS, each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Cava, Advanced Auto Parts and Kohl’s are scheduled to report their respective first-quarter 2026 results on May 19, May 21 and May 28.
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Kohl's Corporation (KSS) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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