- The market is at the start of the next commodity supercycle, Carlyle's Jeff Currie says
May 15, 2026
The market is at the start of the next commodity supercycle, according to energy strategist and investor Jeff Currie of the Carlyle Group.
In a thread posted to X on Friday morning, Currie laid out a multipronged argument for why the market is right at the beginning of the next years-long rally cycle for commodities that he called “the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history.”
First, the artificial intelligence trade faces major bottlenecks, even as four of the “Magnificent Seven” companies — Alphabet (GOOG, GOOG), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) — are expected to spend more than $700 billion on capital expenditures in 2026 alone.
One of those bottlenecks is in physical materials. The Iran conflict has triggered the largest energy supply shock in history as the oil market has lost more than 13.7 million barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs. Traders argue that even after the war resolves, the playing field for the Persian Gulf — one of the most important supply markets in the world for everything from energy and metals to fertilizers — has changed.
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At the same time, the metals complex has raced ahead, with demand for copper (HG=F), aluminum (ALI=F), and other metals booming, even as the world’s top 20 miners are spending 40% less than they were at the peak of the last supercycle in 2012, Currie said.
Another one of those bottlenecks is compute capacity. As leading AI labs, such as Anthropic (ANTH.PVT), OpenAI (OPAI.PVT), and Google’s DeepMind, have pushed the boundaries of their frontier models, computing has emerged as a key constraint.
The demand has reached such a fever pitch that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is now working on constructing a futures market for compute, benchmarked to the rental prices of graphics processing units (GPUs). Shares in Cerebras (CBRS), a chip designer looking to rival Nvidia (NVDA), opened at a 90% premium to their IPO price when the company went public on Thursday.Iranian laborers cast and mold car engine parts at the Tabriz Tractor Factory's metal smelting plant on Sept. 17, 2025, in Tabriz, in northwestern Iran. (Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)·ATTA KENARE via Getty Images
All of that compute capacity relies on the physical infrastructure of semiconductor materials and manufacturing, from energy to metals.
“The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade,” Currie wrote.
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Second, as physical resources get tighter, the market is swinging increasingly toward deglobalization, Currie argued, moving in the opposite direction of the last commodities supercycle that began in the early 2000s with China’s emergence on the world stage as a major economic power and the increasing interconnection of international markets.President Trump shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping after a visit to the Zhongnanhai Garden in Beijing, China, on May 15, 2026. (Reuters/Evan Vucci/Pool)·Reuters / REUTERS
In an environment of deglobalization, Currie argued, supply chains get tighter and competition for an increasingly small supply of resources increases, moving the market from a “HAGO” model — referring to “hard assets, global operations” — a to “HALO” model, which Currie defined as “hard assets, local operations,” rather than the term’s typical meaning of “heavy assets, low obsolescence.”
“The 2000s super cycle was HAGO — Hard Assets, Global Operations. China assembling, Russia piping, dollars recycling, everything moving across borders frictionlessly,” Currie wrote. “That regime is dead.”
His closing argument: “Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.”
Jake Conley is a breaking news reporter covering US equities for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @byjakeconley or email him at jake.conley@yahooinc.com.
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- Is the Options Market Predicting a Spike in Carlyle Group Stock?
May 15, 2026
Investors in The Carlyle Group Inc. CG need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the Jun 18, 2026 $27.5 Call had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.
What is Implied Volatility?
Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other. It could also mean there is an event coming up soon that may cause a big rally or a huge sell-off. However, implied volatility is only one piece of the puzzle when putting together an options trading strategy.
What do the Analysts Think?
Clearly, options traders are pricing in a big move for The Carlyle Group shares, but what is the fundamental picture for the company? Currently, The Carlyle Group is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) in the Financial - Investment Management industry that ranks in the Bottom 19% of our Zacks Industry Rank. Over the last 30 days, one analyst has increased the earnings estimate for the current quarter, while four analysts have revised their estimates downward. The net effect has taken our Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter from $1.01 per share to 92 cents in that period.
Given the way analysts feel about The Carlyle Group right now, this huge implied volatility could mean there’s a trade developing. Oftentimes, options traders look for options with high levels of implied volatility to sell premium. This is a strategy many seasoned traders use because it captures decay. At expiration, the hope for these traders is that the underlying stock does not move as much as originally expected.
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- Is the Options Market Predicting a Spike in Carlyle Group Stock?
May 15, 2026 · zacks.com
Investors need to pay close attention to CG stock based on the movements in the options market lately.
- Centerra Gold Publishes 2025 Sustainability Report
May 13, 2026 · globenewswire.com
TORONTO, May 13, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Centerra Gold Inc. (“Centerra” or the “Company”) (TSX: CG) (NYSE: CGAU) announces that it has published its 2025 Sustainability Report, which outlines the Company's performance across Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”) topics. Key highlights and achievements from the report are included below. The full report can be accessed on Centerra's website at: www.centerragold.com/sustainability/overview/
- CENTERRA GOLD PUBLISHES 2025 SUSTAINABILITY REPORT
May 13, 2026
TORONTO, MAY 13, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CENTERRA GOLD INC. (“CENTERRA” OR THE “COMPANY”) (TSX: CG) (NYSE: CGAU) ANNOUNCES THAT IT HAS PUBLISHED ITS 2025 SUSTAINABILITY REPORT, WHICH OUTLINES THE COMPANY'S PERFORMANCE ACROSS ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE (“ESG”) TOPICS. KEY HIGHLIGHTS AND ACHIEVEMENTS FROM THE REPORT ARE INCLUDED BELOW. THE FULL REPORT CAN BE ACCESSED ON CENTERRA'S WEBSITE AT: WWW.CENTERRAGOLD.COM/SUSTAINABILITY/OVERVIEW/
- Sector Update: Financial Stocks Higher Late Afternoon
May 12, 2026
Financial stocks advanced in late Tuesday afternoon trading, with the NYSE Financial Index rising 0.
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- Sector Update: Financial Stocks Advance Tuesday Afternoon
May 12, 2026
Financial stocks were higher in Tuesday afternoon trading, with the NYSE Financial Index rising 0.4%
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- YipitData and Ulta Beauty Partner to Redefine Data-Driven Merchandising
May 12, 2026
Ulta Beauty uses YipitData to gain near real-time visibility into shopper behavior, competitive performance, and category trends beyond its own channels— fueling smarter retail decisions.
NEW YORK, May 12, 2026--(BUSINESS WIRE)--YipitData, a leading provider of alternative data-driven market intelligence for institutional investors, retailers, consumer brands, and enterprises, today announced a partnership with Ulta Beauty, the nation’s largest specialty beauty retailer. Through this collaboration, Ulta Beauty is using YipitData’s insights to inform merchandising and assortment decisions, support customer loyalty initiatives, and strengthen its understanding of shopper behavior across the broader beauty market.
YipitData gives retailers a near real-time, outside-in view of the market, revealing category trends, brand and item-level performance, and competitive shifts. With these insights, leading retailers can benchmark results, spot emerging opportunities, and make faster, smarter decisions across merchandising and customer strategy.
"Ulta Beauty continues to set the pace for how retailers respond to evolving consumer preferences," said James Hart, President at YipitData. "We’re pleased to support their team with a detailed, external perspective on the market, from competitive performance to emerging consumer trends, so they can move quickly and make well-informed decisions."
"Maintaining a strong understanding of how shoppers engage with the broader beauty landscape is an important part of how we evolve our assortment and support our brand partners," said Penny Coy, SVP Merchandising Skincare and Haircare at Ulta Beauty. "YipitData provides visibility into competitive performance and category trends, strengthening our insights and helping us make more informed, data-driven decisions."
About YipitData
YipitData is a leading provider of alternative data-driven marketing intelligence, trusted by over 650 customers including many of the world’s largest institutional investors and Fortune 100 companies. Using alternative data, YipitData provides more timely and granular insights on how companies are performing and customers are behaving. Backed by over $500M in investments from Carlyle (NASDAQ: CG) and Norwest Venture Partners, YipitData’s valuation has exceeded $1B. YipitData transforms billions of alternative data points into actionable intelligence across sectors like software, AI, e-commerce, retail, and payments. For more information, visit www.yipitdata.com.
About Ulta Beauty
Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA) is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S. and a leading destination for cosmetics, fragrance, skin care, hair care, wellness and salon services. Since opening its first store in 1990, Ulta Beauty has grown to approximately 1,500 stores across the U.S. and redefined beauty retail by bringing together All Things Beauty. All in One Place®. With an expansive product assortment, professional salon services and its beloved Ulta Beauty Rewards loyalty program, the company delivers seamless, personalized experiences across stores, Ulta.com and the Ulta Beauty App – where the possibilities are truly beautiful. Ulta Beauty is also expanding its presence internationally through a joint venture in Mexico, a franchise in the Middle East, and its subsidiary, Space NK, a luxury beauty retailer operating in the U.K. and Ireland. For more information, visit www.ulta.com.
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- Carlyle Secured Lending: 12.5% Dividend Reduction, Signs Of Stability, But I'm Not Ready To Turn Bullish
May 12, 2026 · seekingalpha.com
Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) cut its dividend by 12.5% due to higher losses and tighter coverage, aligning payouts with earnings. CGBD trades at a 27% discount to NAV and yields over 12%, but limited dividend coverage and macro uncertainty warrant caution. Management's aggressive share buybacks and improved non-accruals signal stabilization, yet further financial clarity is needed before turning bullish.
- CG Q1 Deep Dive: Platform Diversification and Fundraising Momentum Amid Revenue Miss
May 12, 2026
Private equity firm Carlyle Group (NASDAQ:CG) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2026, with sales falling 75.7% year on year to $254 million. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.89 per share was 2.8% below analysts’ consensus estimates.
Is now the time to buy CG? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
Carlyle (CG) Q1 CY2026 Highlights:
Revenue: $254 million vs analyst estimates of $863 million (75.7% year-on-year decline, 70.6% miss) Adjusted EPS: $0.89 vs analyst expectations of $0.92 (2.8% miss) Market Capitalization: $17.64 billion
StockStory’s Take
Carlyle’s first quarter results came in below Wall Street’s expectations, leading to a significant negative market reaction. Management pointed to the challenging global environment and complex macroeconomic factors, highlighting robust activity in capital returns and inflows. CEO Harvey Schwartz underscored the importance of diversification across private equity, credit, and real assets, with particular strength in U.S. buyout realizations and continued momentum in Carlyle AlpInvest. While fee-related earnings held steady, management acknowledged the quarter’s results were influenced by the composition and timing of fund exits, rather than underlying investment performance.
Looking ahead, Carlyle’s management is focused on accelerating fundraising as part of a multi-year “super cycle” and leveraging innovative client solutions such as the recently closed $5 billion commitment to its next U.S. buyout fund. CFO Justin Plouffe emphasized expectations for fee-related earnings and fundraising to accelerate as new funds launch and existing investor relationships deepen. Management also noted that expanded credit offerings and increased transaction fee activity are expected to support future growth, while monitoring ongoing geopolitical and market uncertainties. Schwartz stated, “We remain quite confident that we will reach or exceed the targets we laid out for you in February.”
Key Insights from Management’s Remarks
Management attributed the quarter’s underperformance to lower realized performance revenue and the timing of fund exits, while highlighting strong inflows and innovation in fundraising strategies.
Record U.S. buyout realizations: Carlyle returned capital to investors at a rate over 40% higher than its previous record, reflecting active monetization in its U.S. buyout portfolio, which management described as a key differentiator versus industry peers. Innovative fundraising structure launched: The firm closed a $5 billion commitment anchored for its next U.S. buyout fund, introducing a capital-efficient solution that leverages Carlyle AlpInvest’s capabilities in portfolio finance and secondaries, aiming to attract cornerstone investors and provide tailored liquidity options. Sustained inflows across platforms: Carlyle attracted $13 billion in new capital during the quarter, led by $7 billion in Carlyle AlpInvest and $4 billion in global credit, signaling continued demand from both institutional and wealth management channels. Growth in recurring fee base: Fee-related earnings were supported by a 4% year-over-year increase in fund management fees, with management expecting further acceleration as new fundraising cycles begin and existing funds mature. Capital markets and transaction fee outlook: The quarter saw $54 million in transaction fees, with management anticipating an increase next quarter as several large deals, including the BASF coatings carve-out and MAI Capital Management acquisition, are completed.
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Drivers of Future Performance
Carlyle’s outlook is driven by expectations of renewed fundraising momentum, increased transaction activity, and continued platform diversification.
Accelerated fundraising and inflows: Management anticipates a step-up in fundraising as the next wave of flagship funds launch, particularly in private equity and credit, with the so-called “super cycle” expected to drive high-single-digit growth in fee-related earnings. Transaction fee expansion: Upcoming deal completions, including significant carve-outs and acquisitions, are projected to boost transaction fee revenue, while continued capital markets activity should diversify revenue streams and support profitability. Diversification across asset classes: Carlyle’s broad exposure to private equity, credit, and real assets positions the firm to navigate market volatility. However, management flagged ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and persistent redemption activity in certain wealth channels as risks to monitor.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Going forward, our analysts will be watching (1) the pace and scale of fundraising as new flagship funds and strategies come to market, (2) the realization of upcoming large transactions and their impact on transaction fee revenue, and (3) continued progress in expanding Carlyle AlpInvest and Global Credit platforms. Execution against these milestones, as well as responses to shifting macroeconomic and geopolitical trends, will be critical signposts.
Carlyle currently trades at $49.66, down from $50.80 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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