- Chord Energy: Management Thinks Its Own Stock Is Cheap, So It Keeps Buying
May 17, 2026 · seekingalpha.com
Chord Energy is rated a Buy, driven by disciplined capital allocation, aggressive buybacks, and a conservative balance sheet. CHRD prioritizes free cash flow per share over production growth, leveraging long-lateral drilling and operational efficiencies to lower breakevens by $8-$12/barrel. Management has reduced share count by 12% since 2023, signaling conviction that the stock is undervalued at ~3x EV/EBITDA, well below peers.
- Chord Energy (CHRD) Is Up 8.8% After Q1 Beat, Buybacks And Shelf Filing News – What's Changed
May 17, 2026
Earlier this month, Chord Energy reported first-quarter 2026 results with revenue of US$1,665.64 million, net income of US$108.61 million, reaffirmed its US$1.30 base dividend, updated production guidance, and filed a universal mixed-shelf registration covering multiple security types. Despite the mixed earnings picture, management’s continued share buybacks and Wellington Management’s 6.68% beneficial ownership highlight confidence in Chord’s capital return policy and long-term positioning. Building on these developments, we’ll examine how stronger-than-expected Q1 production and reaffirmed guidance reshape Chord Energy’s existing investment narrative.
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Chord Energy Investment Narrative Recap
To own Chord Energy, you need to believe its Williston Basin assets can keep generating competitive cash flows despite cost pressures, shale decline rates, and long term energy transition risk. Right now, the key near term catalyst is operational execution against 2026 production targets, while the biggest risk is that rising costs and localized disruptions in the basin undermine margins. Q1’s stronger output and reaffirmed guidance support the catalyst, but do not remove the underlying risk.
The most relevant update is Chord’s reaffirmed 2026 production guidance alongside Q1 volumes of 275.6 MBoepd, with oil at 158.0 MBopd. This keeps the focus on whether the company can consistently deliver within its guided oil range of 160.0 to 162.0 MBopd for the full year, a key marker for sustaining free cash flow and supporting ongoing dividends and buybacks, even as the mixed shelf registration introduces additional capital markets flexibility.
Yet even with solid Q1 volumes, investors should be aware that concentrated Williston exposure still leaves Chord heavily exposed to regional regulatory and operational shocks...
Read the full narrative on Chord Energy (it's free!)
Chord Energy's narrative projects $5.1 billion revenue and $667.3 million earnings by 2029.
Uncover how Chord Energy's forecasts yield a $162.11 fair value, a 9% upside to its current price.
Exploring Other PerspectivesCHRD 1-Year Stock Price Chart
Some of the most optimistic analysts were assuming Chord could reach about US$5.4 billion in revenue and around US$893.5 million in earnings, which is a far more upbeat view than consensus and could be challenged or reinforced by how Q1’s higher production and cost trends evolve against the risk of more volatile, less hedged commodity prices.
Story Continues
Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Chord Energy - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!
Decide For Yourself
Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.
A great starting point for your Chord Energy research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Our free Chord Energy research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Chord Energy's overall financial health at a glance.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include CHRD.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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- Here's Why We're Wary Of Buying Chord Energy's (NASDAQ:CHRD) For Its Upcoming Dividend
May 16, 2026
Some investors rely on dividends for growing their wealth, and if you're one of those dividend sleuths, you might be intrigued to know that Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CHRD) is about to go ex-dividend in just three days. The ex-dividend date is one business day before the record date, which is the cut-off date for shareholders to be present on the company's books to be eligible for a dividend payment. The ex-dividend date is an important date to be aware of as any purchase of the stock made on or after this date might mean a late settlement that doesn't show on the record date. Accordingly, Chord Energy investors that purchase the stock on or after the 20th of May will not receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 5th of June.
The company's next dividend payment will be US$1.30 per share, on the back of last year when the company paid a total of US$5.20 to shareholders. Last year's total dividend payments show that Chord Energy has a trailing yield of 3.5% on the current share price of US$148.39. If you buy this business for its dividend, you should have an idea of whether Chord Energy's dividend is reliable and sustainable. We need to see whether the dividend is covered by earnings and if it's growing.
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Dividends are typically paid from company earnings. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned in profit, then the dividend could be unsustainable. Chord Energy's dividend is not well covered by earnings, as the company lost money last year. This is not a sustainable state of affairs, so it would be worth investigating if earnings are expected to recover. Given that the company reported a loss last year, we now need to see if it generated enough free cash flow to fund the dividend. If cash earnings don't cover the dividend, the company would have to pay dividends out of cash in the bank, or by borrowing money, neither of which is long-term sustainable. It paid out more than half (61%) of its free cash flow in the past year, which is within an average range for most companies.
See our latest analysis for Chord Energy
Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.NasdaqGS:CHRD Historic Dividend May 16th 2026
Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?
Businesses with shrinking earnings are tricky from a dividend perspective. If earnings fall far enough, the company could be forced to cut its dividend. Chord Energy reported a loss last year, and the general trend suggests its earnings have also been declining in recent years, making us wonder if the dividend is at risk.
Story Continues
Many investors will assess a company's dividend performance by evaluating how much the dividend payments have changed over time. Chord Energy has delivered 28% dividend growth per year on average over the past five years.
Remember, you can always get a snapshot of Chord Energy's financial health, by checking our visualisation of its financial health, here.
The Bottom Line
Is Chord Energy an attractive dividend stock, or better left on the shelf? We're a bit uncomfortable with it paying a dividend while being loss-making. However, we note that the dividend was covered by cash flow. It's not that we think Chord Energy is a bad company, but these characteristics don't generally lead to outstanding dividend performance.
So if you're still interested in Chord Energy despite it's poor dividend qualities, you should be well informed on some of the risks facing this stock. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Chord Energy you should know about.
If you're in the market for strong dividend payers, we recommend checking our selection of top dividend stocks.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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- Chord Energy: Still Undervalued, Even At $100 Oil
May 15, 2026 · seekingalpha.com
Chord Energy remains undervalued despite a 40% share price increase, offering substantial value at normalized $70 WTI crude pricing. CHRD consistently generates over 20% free cash flow yields at current prices, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in crude oil. The 4-mile well development program has unlocked 4% year-over-year production growth within a CAPEX budget set at $60 WTI.
- 2 Energy Stocks with Exciting Potential and 1 That Underwhelm
May 15, 2026
Energy businesses quietly power the physical things we depend on, from cars and homes to e-commerce infrastructure. Their momentum is also rising as lower interest rates, as well as AI energy needs, have incentivized higher capital spending. As a result, the industry has posted a 37.1% gain over the past six months, beating the S&P 500 by 29.1 percentage points.
Nevertheless, investors must be mindful as the cycle can unexpectedly turn. When this inevitably happens, only the elite companies will survive and ultimately thrive. With that said, here are two resilient energy stocks at the top of our wish list and one we’re swiping left on.
One Energy Stock to Sell:
Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI)
Market Cap: $4.36 billion
After acquiring Mobile Energy Rentals in 2024 to enter the distributed power market, Solaris Energy Infrastructure (NYSE:SEI) leases mobile power equipment and provides logistics services for oil and gas well completion.
Why Is SEI Not Exciting?
Smaller revenue base of $692.1 million means it hasn’t achieved the economies of scale that some industry juggernauts enjoy Gross margin of 40.6% reflects its high production costs and unfavorable asset base Cash-burning tendencies make us wonder if it can sustainably generate shareholder value
At $76.80 per share, Solaris Energy Infrastructure trades at 55.3x forward P/E. To fully understand why you should be careful with SEI, check out our full research report (it’s free).
Two Energy Stocks to Buy:
Diamondback Energy (FANG)
Market Cap: $55.18 billion
Sporting one of Wall Street's most memorable ticker symbols, Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG) drills for and produces oil and natural gas from underground rock formations in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico.
Why Are We Backing FANG?
Market share has increased this cycle as its 42.9% annual revenue growth over the last ten years was exceptional Attractive asset base leads to wonderful unit economics and a best-in-class gross margin of 80.2% FANG is a free cash flow machine with the flexibility to invest in growth initiatives or return capital to shareholders
Diamondback Energy is trading at $197.03 per share, or 9.5x forward P/E. Is now the right time to buy? Find out in our full research report, it’s free.
Chord Energy (CHRD)
Market Cap: $7.89 billion
Holding the largest acreage position in the Williston Basin, Chord Energy (NASDAQ:CHRD) drills for and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas in North Dakota's Williston Basin.
Why Is CHRD a Top Pick?
Market share has increased this cycle as its 21.8% annual revenue growth over the last ten years was exceptional Economies of scale give it some operating leverage when demand rises Robust free cash flow margin of 22.3% gives it many options for capital deployment
Story Continues
Chord Energy’s stock price of $140.10 implies a valuation ratio of 7.6x forward P/E. Is now the time to initiate a position? See for yourself in our comprehensive research report, it’s free.
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- The 5 Most Interesting Analyst Questions From Chord Energy’s Q1 Earnings Call
May 15, 2026
Chord Energy’s first quarter results for 2026 showed revenue and non-GAAP profit well ahead of Wall Street expectations, but the market reacted negatively, with shares trading down notably after the release. Management attributed the quarter’s performance to robust operating execution despite adverse weather and midstream constraints, with oil production volumes coming in above internal targets. CEO Danny Brown highlighted that, “the team did an excellent job executing through adverse weather conditions and some midstream constraints to deliver oil volumes above the high end of guidance.” However, operating margins came under pressure due to increased costs and persistent volatility in commodity markets, both of which were key discussion points on the call.
Is now the time to buy CHRD? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
Chord Energy (CHRD) Q1 CY2026 Highlights:
Revenue: $1.67 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.25 billion (37.1% year-on-year growth, 33.1% beat) Adjusted EPS: $4.56 vs analyst estimates of $3.49 (30.8% beat) Adjusted EBITDA: $713 million vs analyst estimates of $674.2 million (42.8% margin, 5.8% beat) Operating Margin: 20%, down from 27.8% in the same quarter last year Oil production per day: up 2.8% year on year Market Capitalization: $7.89 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Chord Energy’s Q1 Earnings Call
John Holliday Abbott (Wolfe Research) asked about the company’s willingness to shift from maintenance mode to growth if oil prices stay elevated. CEO Danny Brown said growth depends on the durability of higher prices and would only be considered if the macro setup is supportive long-term. Oliver Huang (TPH) questioned whether base production optimization is a one-time uplift or a structural improvement. COO Darrin Henke explained the changes are partly structural, with ongoing efforts to sustain uplift and further reduce decline rates. Jack Kindergen (BMO Capital Markets) inquired about the sustainability of current crude price premiums. CEO Danny Brown said pricing above WTI should persist through at least the second quarter, contingent on broader market dynamics. Scott Michael Hanold (RBC Capital Markets) pressed on the pace and timing of share buybacks amid elevated oil prices. CEO Danny Brown reiterated the company’s preference for opportunistic buybacks and avoidance of procyclical repurchases. Texas Capital Analyst asked about recent organizational changes to support production optimization. CEO Danny Brown described the creation of specialized engineering teams focused on both high-rate and lower-producing wells to maximize aggregate output.
Story Continues
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Looking ahead, our analysts will be watching (1) the pace and productivity of the four-mile lateral drilling rollout, (2) continued progress on base production optimization and decline rate improvements, and (3) any changes in capital allocation strategy if oil prices or efficiency gains materially shift. We are also monitoring the company’s pursuit of M&A and potential divestiture of non-core assets as additional levers for value creation.
Chord Energy currently trades at $140.10, down from $149.16 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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- Surging Earnings Estimates Signal Upside for Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Stock
May 13, 2026
Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) could be a solid choice for investors given the company's remarkably improving earnings outlook. While the stock has been a strong performer lately, this trend might continue since analysts are still raising their earnings estimates for the company.
The upward trend in estimate revisions for this company reflects growing optimism of analysts on its earnings prospects, which should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements. Our stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is principally built on this insight.
The five-grade Zacks Rank system, which ranges from a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record of outperformance, with Zacks #1 Ranked stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 2008.
For Chord Energy Corporation, strong agreement among the covering analysts in revising earnings estimates upward has resulted in meaningful improvement in consensus estimates for the next quarter and full year.
The chart below shows the evolution of forward 12-month Zacks Consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Current-Quarter Estimate Revisions
For the current quarter, the company is expected to earn $5.29 per share, which is a change of +195.5% from the year-ago reported number.
Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chord Energy Corporation has increased 27.72% because one estimate has moved higher while two have gone lower.
Current-Year Estimate Revisions
For the full year, the company is expected to earn $18.26 per share, representing a year-over-year change of +91.6%.
In terms of estimate revisions, the trend for the current year also appears quite encouraging for Chord Energy Corporation. Over the past month, four estimates have moved higher compared to two negative revisions, helping the consensus estimate increase 27.82%.
Favorable Zacks Rank
Thanks to promising estimate revisions, Chord Energy Corporation currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). The Zacks Rank is a tried-and-tested rating tool that helps investors effectively harness the power of earnings estimate revisions and make the right investment decision.
You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Our research shows that stocks with Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and 2 (Buy) significantly outperform the S&P 500.
Bottom Line
Chord Energy Corporation shares have added 10% over the past four weeks, suggesting that investors are betting on its impressive estimate revisions. So, you may consider adding it to your portfolio right away to benefit from its earnings growth prospects.
Story Continues
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Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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- SM Energy Surges 67% in Six Months: Is the Stock Worth Betting on Now?
May 13, 2026
SM Energy Company SM posted a quarterly earnings beat, delivering adjusted earnings of $1.55 per share and total revenues of $1.48 billion, supported by higher oil-equivalent production volumes. The first quarter marked SM’s first full reporting period after the close of the Civitas merger.
The quarterly results showed an impressive 88% increase in the average net daily production, supported by output from the legacy Civitas assets. SM Energy is an independent exploration and production company with an asset portfolio spanning four premier shale basins in the United States: the Permian Basin, DJ Basin, South Texas and the Uinta Basin.
Over the past six months, SM stock has surged 67.2% compared with the industry’s 20% growth. Its peers, Chord Energy Corporation CHRD and EOG Resources EOG, have grown 55.6% and 22.3%, respectively, during the same time frame. While price performance demonstrates the attractiveness of a stock to some extent, it would be wiser to closely examine the company’s current business environment before offering any investment advice.Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
High-Quality Assets Support SM’s Production Growth
SM Energy has a top-tier asset base spread across four premier shale basins in the United States. The company owns 237,000 net acres in the Permian, 303,000 net acres in the DJ Basin, 94,000 net acres in South Texas and 62,000 net acres in the Uinta Basin, offering exposure to high-margin basins with oil-weighted production. The all-stock merger with Civitas Resources has been a major positive for SM, driving production growth through Civitas’ legacy assets.
The increased production is expected to benefit SM Energy, particularly given the favorable commodity price environment at present. Per the data from oilprice.com, the West Texas Intermediate crude prices are currently hovering around $100 per barrel, significantly higher than the prices seen at the beginning of the year. This is anticipated to boost the company’s earnings and cash flow profile in the near term.
Significant De-Leveraging Efforts Strengthen SM’s Financial Position
SM Energy is taking significant strides to reduce its debt levels and strengthen its balance sheet. The company recently closed the divestiture of its South Texas assets and used $900 million in net proceeds from the transaction to reduce debt. In the first-quarter presentation, SM highlighted that it had retired $894 million of high-coupon debt, yielding $16 million in interest savings. The company has also indicated that it is on track to reduce leverage to the low-1x range earlier than its year-end 2026 target.
Story Continues
In addition to reducing debt, the company is focused on increasing free cash flow generation. The favorable commodity pricing environment, along with cost savings realized through merger-related synergies, is expected to drive higher free cash flows. SM noted that decreasing leverage and generating higher cash flows will enhance shareholder returns by increasing its allocation toward share buybacks.SM Energy
Image Source: SM Energy
Valuation Snapshot
Coming to the valuation story, SM is currently considered cheap on a relative basis. The stock is trading at a trailing 12-month Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA) of 5.76x, which is a discount compared with the broader industry average of 9.78x. Notably, Chord Energy and EOG Resources currently trade at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 4.03X and 6.27X, respectively.Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Time to Invest in the Stock or Wait?
SM Energy is well-positioned to benefit from rising commodity prices and its high-quality inventory spanning premier shale basins across the United States. Its production mix is mainly oil-weighted, enabling it to generate stronger profits in a higher crude price environment. Additionally, ongoing efforts to reduce its leverage and focus on generating higher cash flows should allow SM Energy to support higher shareholder returns.
Given that the stock is trading at a discount, investors should consider buying the SM stock, which sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. CHRD currently sports a Zacks Rank #1, while EOG carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
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EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) : Free Stock Analysis Report
SM Energy Company (SM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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- Surging Earnings Estimates Signal Upside for Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Stock
May 13, 2026 · zacks.com
Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) shares have started gaining and might continue moving higher in the near term, as indicated by solid earnings estimate revisions.
- NDIV converts commodity volatility into monthly cash with 34% year-to-date gain
May 12, 2026
Quick Read
NDIV rose 45% trailing-year despite gold miners and energy stocks significantly outperforming, showing calls didn’t cap all upside in commodity rally. Distribution sustainability depends on commodities staying strong; oil below $60 or VIX retreat would compress income and NAV simultaneously. The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and Amplify Energy & Natural Resources Covered Call ETF wasn't one of them. Get them here FREE.
The Amplify Energy & Natural Resources Covered Call ETF (NYSEARCA:NDIV) sells call options against a basket of energy and natural resources equities to convert commodity volatility into monthly cash distributions. Investors hold NDIV for the income, but covered-call funds live and die by two things: the dividends and option premiums coming in, and whether NAV holds up underneath. NDIV closed at around $35, after a 34% year-to-date gain, so the distribution story is currently being underwritten by one of the strongest commodity tapes in years.
How NDIV Turns Commodities Into Cash
The fund collects two income streams. The first is the underlying dividends paid by gold miners, oil and gas producers, and midstream operators it owns. The second comes from writing call options on those positions, which generates premium upfront in exchange for capping upside if the stocks rally past the strike. When volatility is elevated, premiums fatten. When prices rip higher, the calls get exercised and NDIV gives up the gains above the strike.
The CBOE Volatility Index sits at 17.39, down 28% over the past month from a March spike to 31.05. Premium income is moderating from earlier-2026 highs, though sector-specific volatility in energy names remains elevated.
The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and Amplify Energy & Natural Resources Covered Call ETF wasn't one of them.Get them here FREE.
The Dividend Engine Inside the Fund
Start with the gold miners. Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM) raised its quarterly payout to $0.45 per share for June 2026, a 13% increase after holding $0.40 for four years. With trailing EPS of $10.63 against $1.65 in annual dividends, the payout consumes a fraction of earnings. Q1 free cash flow of $732 million and a $2.92 billion net cash position mean the dividend is among the safest in the holdings list.
Alamos Gold (NYSE:AGI) lifted its quarterly dividend to $0.04 from $0.025, a 60% bump backed by Q1 adjusted earnings of $232 million versus $59.8 million a year earlier. The yield is small, roughly 0.3%, so AGI contributes more to NDIV through option premium and price appreciation than dividend cash.
Story Continues
The energy side is where sustainability questions sharpen. Chord Energy (NASDAQ:CHRD) has paid a $1.30 base quarterly dividend for five straight quarters. The company guides to roughly $1.4 billion in 2026 adjusted free cash flow at $80 WTI. With WTI at around $110, coverage is comfortable. The risk is mechanical: oil sat at around $55 in mid-December 2025, and Chord historically slashed special dividends fast when prices fell. The base looks defensible, but anyone counting on prior-year totals should anchor expectations to the $1.30 floor.
Antero Midstream (NYSE:AM) yields 4.1% and has held its $0.225 quarterly distribution since 2021. Q1 adjusted EBITDA rose 5%, and 2026 guidance points to $330 to $390 million in free cash flow after dividends. The HG Energy acquisition pushed leverage near 3x, but coverage is solid.
Total Return Versus the Yield
NDIV is up 45% over the trailing year, a rare result for a covered-call fund and a sign the calls have not capped all the upside in this commodity rally. Underlying winners outran NDIV: AEM gained 62%, CHRD 61%, and AGI 57%. That gap is the cost of the income overlay.
The Verdict
NDIV's distribution looks well supported today. Gold producers are flush, midstream cash flow is contracted, and Chord's base dividend clears coverage at current oil. The real risks are cyclical: a drop in WTI toward $60, a fade in gold, and a VIX retreat below 15 would all compress income simultaneously. Investors who want exposure to energy and resources with a richer income stream than the underlyings provide can rely on NDIV's distribution in this environment, provided they accept that NAV will track commodities downward when the cycle turns.
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