- Is Procter & Gamble's Baby Care Slump Dragging Overall Growth?
May 12, 2026
The Procter & Gamble Company PG has been navigating uneven performance in its Baby Care business, particularly in the United States, where market share trends have lagged the company’s expectations. While the segment has been a relatively weak spot, management believes the challenges are highly localized and do not reflect a broader deterioration in category fundamentals. PG is investing in product upgrades, improved consumer communication and trial-building initiatives to restore momentum, reinforcing confidence that Baby Care can become a growth contributor rather than a drag over time.
In third-quarter fiscal 2026, PG reported organic sales growth of more than 3%, with volume up 2 points and pricing contributing 1 point. Core EPS increased 3% to $1.59. Management noted that Baby Care is gaining share in five of seven regions, with Greater China delivering 19% growth despite a declining birth-rate environment. The United States remains the largest region not currently gaining share, prompting targeted interventions. Globally, Baby Care was among the categories posting low-single-digit organic growth, while North America organic sales rose 4% and global market share improved in 26 of PG’s top 50 category-country combinations.
Although U.S. Baby Care remains a near-term pressure point, the segment is not materially weighing on PG’s overall growth trajectory. The company’s diversified portfolio, broad-based geographic strength and consistent innovation pipeline continue to support healthy top-line momentum. With management expressing strong confidence in its turnaround plan and willingness to invest aggressively where opportunities exist, Baby Care appears more like a fixable execution issue than a structural concern for PG’s long-term growth story.
Innovation Drives Resilience at CHD and CL
Both Church & Dwight CHD and Colgate-Palmolive CL are using innovation, premium products and strong brand portfolios to offset category-specific pressures and sustain growth momentum.
Church & Dwight is also working to strengthen its baby and household products portfolio through innovation and targeted investments. The company’s Baby Care business, led by the WaterWipes and Hero brands, has faced a competitive environment, but Church & Dwight continues to focus on premium positioning, marketing support and distribution gains to drive growth. Its diversified portfolio, which includes Arm & Hammer, OxiClean and Trojan, helps offset temporary softness in any single category and supports steady revenue and earnings expansion.
Colgate is leveraging innovation and brand investment to navigate category-specific pressures while sustaining overall growth. The company has demonstrated a similar strategy of using premium product launches, disciplined pricing and productivity initiatives to protect margins and market share. Strength in oral care, personal care and pet nutrition, particularly through the Hill’s segment, continues to provide Colgate with balanced growth and resilience even when certain categories face slower demand.
Story Continues
PG’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Procter & Gamble’s shares have lost around 3.1% in the past six months compared with the industry’s 2.8% decline.Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, PG trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3X compared with the industry’s average of 17.9X.Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PG’s fiscal 2026 and 2027 EPS indicates year-over-year growth of 1.2% and 2.6%, respectively. The company’s EPS estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 have moved downward in the past seven days.Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Procter & Gamble currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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- Australia sees oil at $200 amid Iran war escalation fears
May 12, 2026
Investing.com -- Australia's government has outlined a scenario in its annual budget where escalating conflict in Iran could push oil prices to $200 per barrel and trigger a global economic crisis.
The Treasury released the analysis in Tuesday's budget papers, warning that such a situation could arise if the conflict becomes prolonged or if escalation damages energy and export infrastructure across the Middle East, cutting off oil supply from the region, including through the Red Sea trade route.
Under this scenario, oil prices reaching $200 during the July-to-September period would cause the Australian economy to contract in that quarter. Domestic inflation would climb to 7.25% in the year through the fourth quarter, with unemployment also rising.
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remained halted on Tuesday, with oil prices increasing after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest offer and indicated a ceasefire may not hold. Brent crude rose 2% to trade above $106 per barrel.
The Treasury report stated that higher prices for fuel, fertilizer and other petrochemicals would make some businesses unviable and reduce margins for others.
"We're hostage to developments in lots of ways," Treasurer Jim Chalmers told reporters Tuesday. "The impacts of the war in the Middle East are already serious. There is still a risk that they become quite severe and we've tried to give you a sense of that severity."
A prolonged war would also increase prices for Australian exports of coal and LNG, providing some support to the economy.
The Labor government's central forecast predicts inflation will peak in the three months through June and then decline as the war ends. Chalmers said this outlook is "heavily dependent, heavily hostage to developments overseas for obvious reasons, including the duration of the conflict."
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- Colgate-Palmolive’s Q1 Earnings Call: Our Top 5 Analyst Questions
May 11, 2026
Colgate-Palmolive began 2026 with positive momentum, as Q1 results exceeded Wall Street’s revenue and non-GAAP profit expectations. Management credited improved sales volumes and strong brand performance in emerging markets, particularly in Asia Pacific, as key contributors. CEO Noel Wallace highlighted that “emerging markets have accelerated,” citing successful interventions in the Hawley & Hazel business and continued investments in advertising and innovation as drivers of broad-based growth across categories and geographies.
Is now the time to buy CL? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
Colgate-Palmolive (CL) Q1 CY2026 Highlights:
Revenue: $5.32 billion vs analyst estimates of $5.23 billion (8.4% year-on-year growth, 1.8% beat) Adjusted EPS: $0.97 vs analyst estimates of $0.94 (2.7% beat) Adjusted EBITDA: $1.29 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.27 billion (24.2% margin, 1.9% beat) Operating Margin: 18.1%, down from 21.9% in the same quarter last year Organic Revenue rose 2.9% year on year (beat) Sales Volumes rose 1.1% year on year (-0.1% in the same quarter last year) Market Capitalization: $69.9 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Colgate-Palmolive’s Q1 Earnings Call
Dara Mohsenian (Morgan Stanley) asked about the sustainability of volume growth in emerging markets and the path to improvement in North America. CEO Noel Wallace stressed ongoing brand investment and innovation, particularly in Asia Pacific, as well as strategic resets for North America. Filippo Falorni (Citi) questioned assumptions around cost inflation and how Colgate-Palmolive plans to offset raw material pressures. CFO Stanley Sutula detailed the $300 million increase in costs, mainly from oil-based inputs, and highlighted productivity and pricing as mitigation strategies. Bonnie Herzog (Goldman Sachs) sought clarity on gross margin headwinds and the company’s flexibility to deliver on EPS targets despite higher costs. Wallace explained that pricing, innovation, and cost savings would help offset margin declines, but lower gross margins were expected for the year. Peter Galbo (Bank of America) asked for more detail on Asia Pacific and India’s role in driving growth. Wallace cited innovation, digital execution, and strong performance in both China and India as critical factors. Andrea Teixeira (JPMorgan) inquired about competitiveness in U.S. Oral Care and improvement in market share. Wallace pointed to late-quarter innovation and increased brand support as catalysts for expected sequential gains.
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Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will watch (1) whether emerging market momentum persists as new product launches and increased advertising continue, (2) the effectiveness of North America’s strategy reset in driving share gains and margin recovery, and (3) the company’s ability to offset raw material and logistics cost inflation through pricing and productivity. Progress in digital initiatives and supply chain simplification will also be key markers for execution against long-term goals.
Colgate-Palmolive currently trades at $87.25, up from $85.36 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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- Oil market may not normalize until 2027, Saudi Aramco CEO warns
May 11, 2026
Investing.com -- The oil market will take until 2027 to normalize if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists beyond the middle of June, the CEO of the world’s largest oil company warned Monday.
"If the Strait of Hormuz opens today, it will still take months for the market to rebalance, and if its opening is delayed by a few more weeks, then normalization will last into 2027," Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told investors on the company’s first-quarter earnings call.
The U.S. and Iran do not appear any closer to a deal to end the war and reopen Hormuz. President Donald Trump said Monday the ceasefire with Tehran is on life support after he rejected its counterproposal to end the conflict.
About 20% of the world’s oil supplies passed through Hormuz before the war. Iran has managed to close the narrow sea lane, which connects the Persian Gulf to the global market, since early March.
More than 600 ships, mostly oil and product tankers, are currently stuck in the Gulf, Nasser said. Around 240 ships are waiting outside Hormuz. Some of these ships may leave to other places because they have been idling in the region for too long, Nasser said.
The fleet is "mixed up" with some tankers deployed in the wrong places, the CEO said. Ships will need to be repositioned from certain parts of the world to normalize the supply chain, he said.
"Even in the most optimistic scenario, energy and commodity supply chains will need several months to return to the pre-conflict traffic as vessels reroute or avoid being idle," Nasser said.
The oil market will lose 100 million barrels of supply every week Hormuz remains closed, the CEO said. Just two to five ships pass through Hormuz daily right now compared with 70 vessels before the war, he said.
The market has already lost more than 1 billion barrels due to the Hormuz closure, Nasser said. The net loss is around 880 million barrels thanks to redirected exports through Saudi’s East-West pipeline and the release of strategic reserves by governments, he said.
Oil inventories are rapidly drawing down, particularly for products like gasoline and jet fuel, due to the supply loss from the Middle East, the CEO said. "This may reach critically low levels ahead of the summer driving and travel season," Nasser said.
The disruption to shipping through the strait has caused the biggest energy supply shock ever, the CEO said.
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- Procter & Gamble Drops 9% in 3 Months: Buy the Dip or Sell the Stock?
May 11, 2026
The Procter & Gamble Company PG has witnessed a decline over the past three months, with its shares falling 9.2%. The stock underperformed the S&P 500 index, which gained 9.4% during the same period, but performed better than the Consumer Staples sector, which declined 11.6%. Meanwhile, the broader Consumer Products – Staples industry fell 6.7%.
Procter & Gamble’s recent stock weakness reflects investor concerns over moderating sales growth, persistent cost pressures and a cautious near-term earnings outlook. Although the company delivered better-than-expected third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings, revenue growth remained modest, and management indicated that full-year earnings are likely to land toward the lower end of its guidance range.
PG's 3-Month Price PerformanceZacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PG’s performance is notably weaker than that of its competitors, BJ's Wholesale Club BJ, Colgate-Palmolive Company CL and Church & Dwight Co., Inc. CHD, which declined 7.5%, 8.9% and 6.5%, respectively, in the past three months.Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Closing at $146.42, PG stock stands almost 14.4% below its 52-week high of $170.99 attained on May 30, 2026. The company is trading below its 50 and 200-day simple moving averages of $146.8 and $148.4, respectively, signaling bearish sentiment in maintaining the recent performance levels.
PG Trades Below 50 & 200-Day Moving AveragesZacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What’s Behind PG’s Dismal Stock Run?
PG has faced a dismal stock run due to a combination of macroeconomic pressures, rising costs and investor concerns about future profitability. Although the company delivered solid third-quarter fiscal 2026 results with organic sales growth above 3% and broad-based category expansion, investors remain worried about mounting inflationary pressures and geopolitical disruptions. The conflict in the Middle East has sharply increased commodity-linked input costs, logistics expenses and supply chain disruptions, creating an estimated $1 billion after-tax headwind for the 2026.
Another major factor behind the weak stock performance is uncertainty regarding earnings growth and margins. Management acknowledged that while innovation-led growth remains strong, the company may not fully offset inflation through productivity improvements alone. PG expects earnings to land near the lower end of its guidance range of $6.83-$7.09 for fiscal 2026 as rising oil prices, transportation expenses and sourcing inefficiencies pressure margins. Investors are also cautious because the company continues to increase investments in marketing, innovation and consumer promotions despite the challenging cost environment, which could weigh on short-term profitability.
Consumer spending trends have also contributed to investor pessimism. Persistent inflation across food, healthcare and energy has weakened consumer purchasing power globally, especially in value-sensitive categories. Although PG emphasized that innovation and premium products like SK-II and Tide are driving growth, there are concerns that consumers may increasingly trade down to cheaper alternatives if inflation remains elevated. Competitive intensity in retail channels and the gradual return of promotional activity to pre-COVID levels have further added pressure on the company’s pricing power and market share outlook.
Finally, the market remains uncertain about PG’s ability to sustain long-term growth amid restructuring efforts and global volatility. Management itself admitted that fiscal 2027 visibility remains limited due to unpredictable macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical risks. As a result, despite strong brands and stable demand fundamentals, concerns over inflation, margins and execution risks have weighed heavily on PG’s recent stock performance.
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PG Not Devoid of Tailwinds
Despite near-term pressures, PG is not devoid of tailwinds, as the company continues to demonstrate strong brand resilience and broad-based organic growth. In the latest quarter, all 10 product categories posted organic sales growth, while regions such as North America, Latin America and Greater China delivered solid performances. Premium brands like SK-II, Tide and Pampers continue to gain traction due to superior product innovation and strong consumer loyalty. Management also highlighted improving market share trends across several key categories, indicating that the company’s innovation-led strategy is beginning to gain momentum.
Another important tailwind is PG’s aggressive focus on productivity, automation and supply-chain modernization. The company’s “Supply Chain 3.0” initiative, which includes automation, AI-enabled analytics, digital manufacturing and warehouse operations, is helping improve operational efficiency and supply resilience. Management noted that these initiatives are enabling faster reformulation, diversified sourcing and improved inventory management during periods of geopolitical disruption. Over time, these technology-driven efficiencies could help offset inflationary pressures and support margin recovery.
PG’s Estimate Revision Trend
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PG’s fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings per share has inched down 6 cents and 19 cents to $6.91 and $7.09, respectively, over the past 30 days.Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PG’s Premium Valuation
Despite the considerable decline in its share price, Procter & Gamble still trades at a significant premium to industry peers with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 20.73X. The current valuation is below its five-year high of 26.67X but ahead of the broader industry’s multiple of 17.87X.
At a forward 12-month P/E of 20.73X, Procter & Gamble is trading at a higher valuation than BJ's Wholesale Club, which has a multiple of 20.12X. However, PG is trading below peers such as Colgate-Palmolive and Church & Dwight, which have forward 12-month P/E ratios of 22.40X and 24.27X, respectively.Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How to Play PG Stock Now?
PG is facing mounting near-term pressures from rising commodity and logistics costs, geopolitical uncertainty, slowing consumer demand and persistent margin headwinds. Earnings estimate cuts and management’s cautious outlook have also weakened investor confidence, while the stock still trades at a premium valuation compared with the broader industry. Although PG continues to benefit from strong brands, innovation and productivity initiatives, these positives may take time to materially improve financial performance. Given the uncertain earnings outlook and limited upside potential in the near term, this Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) stock appears less favorable at current levels.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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- Brent at $100+: JPMorgan signals persistent energy market tightness for 2026
May 11, 2026
Investing.com - JPMorgan expects Brent crude to remain in the low-$100s for much of 2026, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in June, as accelerating inventory draws and logistical bottlenecks keep the oil market tight, the bank said in a note.
The bank's revised framework assumes that the pace of oil inventory depletion will ultimately force the Strait to reopen, with its base case anchored on a June 1 reopening following a credible announcement confirmed by both sides, per Reuters.
Prices are unlikely to normalize quickly, as OECD commercial inventories approach operational stress levels, JPMorgan said. The seasonal lift in summer demand, combined with the large commercial stock draws seen in March and April, and likely again in May, should push OECD inventories toward operational stress levels by August, even if the Strait reopens in June.
Earlier, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the ongoing energy supply shock is the largest the world has ever experienced, and continued disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could delay oil market normalisation into 2027.
"The longer the supply disruptions continue, even for another few more weeks, it is going to take a much longer time for the oil market to rebalance and stabilize," he told analysts on a call to discuss the company's first-quarter results.
The bottleneck would likely shift from the Strait itself to tanker availability, refinery ramp-ups and wider logistical constraints, keeping the market tight well into the second half of 2026, the bank said.
JPMorgan now expects Brent to average $96 per barrel in 2026, with quarterly averages of $103 in the second quarter, $104 in the third quarter and $98 in the fourth quarter.
Looking into 2027, JPMorgan expects producers in the Gulf to maximize output after the Strait reopens in an effort to recoup lost revenues. High prices are also expected to encourage other producers to run at capacity, pushing the market into meaningful oversupply from September 2026.
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- OPEC oil output falls to lowest level in over two decades
May 11, 2026
Investing.com -- OPEC crude production dropped by 830,000 barrels per day in April to 20.04 million bpd, marking the lowest output in more than 20 years.
April's production level represents the lowest OPEC output since at least 2000, excluding membership changes, and falls below the levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 when demand collapsed. The decline came as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and forced export reductions, according to a report from Reuters citing its own survey.
The 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries saw its April production fall from March levels, which were revised 700,000 bpd lower due to changes in Saudi Arabia estimates.
Eight members of OPEC+, which includes OPEC and allies such as Russia, had planned to resume production increases in April. The outbreak of war with Iran on February 28 and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz prevented the delivery of this agreement.
Kuwait recorded the largest production decline among OPEC members in April, reflecting a full month of disrupted exports. Saudi Arabia and Iraq also experienced further decreases in output, the report said.
The United Arab Emirates was the only Gulf member to increase production during the month. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE maintain export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, with tanker data showing higher UAE exports in April.
Venezuela and Libya also raised output during April. The UAE departed from OPEC effective May 1.
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- Billionaire Mark Cuban Says Buying 2 Years Of Toothpaste At 50% Off Beats Regular Investments — 'It's So Hard To Make A Return'
May 10, 2026
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Toothpaste usually does not get mentioned in the same sentence as investment strategy unless somebody is trying to survive a warehouse-store checkout line. But billionaire Mark Cubanonce argued that grabbing everyday essentials at steep discounts can deliver better returns than many traditional investments.
"It's so hard to make a return on regular investments that you're better off, when you see a sale," Cuban said in a Vanity Fair video segment from 2017. "You're better off buying two years worth of toothpaste when it's on 50% discount. That's an immediate return on your money."
The Cost Plus Drugs co-founder mixed old-school budgeting habits with investing advice during the segment, urging consumers to think differently about savings, spending and everyday purchases.
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"When they're on a huge sale on Amazon, buy them, because chances are, their prices are gonna go up, but that's a real savings that you get to put in your pocket," Cuban said.
The Bathroom Cabinet Inflation Effect
Cuban's toothpaste strategy sounds less ridiculous once inflation enters the conversation. While the sharpest price spikes from 2022 and 2023 have cooled, personal-care products have continued climbing steadily.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, products in the "hair, dental, shaving, and miscellaneous personal care products" category rose 3.2% during the 12 months that ended March. Over roughly the past two years, cumulative increases in the category have generally landed between 4% and 7%.
That broader category includes products like toothpaste, toothbrushes and shaving cream. In some cities during 2023, toothpaste prices reportedly jumped from $2.71 per tube to $3.92 year over year.
Meanwhile, companies including Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) and Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL) warned investors about tariff-related cost pressures and higher manufacturing expenses during 2025.
Consumers may not celebrate toothpaste inflation the way Wall Street reacts to stock gains, but household budgets definitely notice it.
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Living Like A Student Never Really Went Out Of Style
Cuban's comments about toothpaste were part of a broader philosophy centered on avoiding lifestyle creep and building financial flexibility.
Story Continues
"The first thing you need to do is live like a student," he told Vanity Fair.
He also warned against relying heavily on credit cards and stressed the importance of building emergency savings before chasing larger investment returns.
"You're gonna need at least six months income," Cuban said.
After establishing emergency savings, Cuban said he would place money into "the cheapest" S&P 500 mutual fund he could find. He also discussed speculative investing, saying people willing to "throw the hail Mary" could put 10% into Bitcoin or Ethereum while mentally preparing to lose the money entirely.
The larger point was not really about toothpaste. It was about creating guaranteed savings wherever possible before taking bigger financial swings elsewhere.
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Bulk Buying Meets Long-Term Strategy
Financial advisors often make a similar argument when discussing everyday spending habits with clients. Small recurring expenses can quietly erode wealth over time, especially when prices continue creeping upward year after year.
Working with a financial advisor can help households balance practical savings strategies with longer-term investment goals, whether that means paying down debt, building emergency savings or investing consistently alongside smarter day-to-day spending habits.
A 50% discount on something a household already plans to buy delivers an immediate and predictable return. The stock market, meanwhile, tends to make no such promises.
Which may explain why Cuban's toothpaste strategy from 2017 still sounds surprisingly fresh nearly a decade later.
Read Next: Why Traders Are Flocking to Leveraged ETFs — And What It Means for You
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This article Billionaire Mark Cuban Says Buying 2 Years Of Toothpaste At 50% Off Beats Regular Investments — 'It's So Hard To Make A Return' originally appeared on Benzinga.com
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- Malaysia to unveil oil supply continuity plan as Iran conflict strains reserves
May 10, 2026
Investing.com -- Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will soon outline a strategic plan to secure the nation’s oil supply amid ongoing uncertainties from the conflict in Iran.
According to a report from Bernama, the government is moving to ensure domestic energy levels remain sufficient to support national economic activity.
Economy Minister Akmal Nasrullah Mohd Nasir confirmed the upcoming announcement, noting that the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz has created significant concerns regarding a potential global energy crisis.
The war in Iran has placed immense fiscal pressure on Malaysia, with the government expecting to spend approximately 7 billion ringgit ($1.8 billion) on fuel subsidies for April alone. This figure represents a tenfold increase compared to pre-conflict spending levels.
Current government signals indicate that national oil reserves could potentially be exhausted by June if supply chains are not stabilized.
To address this, state-owned energy giant Petroliam Nasional Bhd. (Petronas) is in the final stages of securing new international suppliers to diversify its sources.
Regional cooperation is also being explored at the ASEAN level, with active discussions regarding the establishment of regional energy reserves.
However, Akmal noted that significant work remains to finalize the necessary frameworks and mechanisms for such a collective system.
In the immediate term, the Malaysian government is optimistic that shifting to B15 biodiesel by June 1 will help extend the country’s existing diesel supply and provide a necessary buffer against further import volatility.
The continuity plan arrives at a critical juncture as Malaysia balances its role as an energy producer with the rising costs of domestic consumption.
While Petronas continues its search for alternative crude and refined product streams, the transition to higher biodiesel blends represents a key pillar of the administration’s strategy to mitigate the impact of the Middle Eastern blockade on the local economy.
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- With Spirit gone, what could this mean for passenger throughput numbers?
May 10, 2026
Investing.com -- Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screening data for U.S. airlines showed a marginal improvement last week, although year-over-year growth remains in negative territory.
According to a report from the Bernstein Societe Generale Group released recently, the aviation sector continues to navigate a challenging demand environment characterized by elevated ticket prices and strategic capacity cuts.
The current market conditions are largely attributed to airline efforts to offset significant increases in fuel costs stemming from the ongoing conflict in Iran.
The data reveals that all major domestic carriers saw available seat mile (ASM)-weighted TSA screenings decline over the last seven days compared to the same period last year.
Southwest Airlines (LUV) and Alaska Air Group (ALK) recorded the most significant drops, with screenings falling 4.6% and 6.3%, respectively.
Other major players, including Delta Air Lines (DAL) and United Airlines (UAL), saw declines hovering around the 2% mark.
American Airlines (AAL) outperformed its peers slightly with a more modest 1.5% year-over-year decrease, a trend Bernstein notes is likely supported by easier comparisons following specific operational challenges the airline faced in 2025.
Current scheduling data indicates that airlines are responding to the softer demand trends by adjusting their forward-looking capacity.
While domestic capacity for the second quarter of 2026 is currently scheduled to grow by 3.6%, recent revisions show that carriers have begun trimming seats for the upcoming months.
Total industry capacity for May was reduced by 0.3% over the last week, while June schedules saw a 0.5% reduction.
The adjustments come as the industry monitors the potential impact of Spirit Airlines’ planned exit from several markets, which is expected to redistribute passenger volumes across the remaining low-cost and legacy carriers.
Despite the slight weekly uptick in passenger volume, the broader trend suggests that consumer sensitivity to high fares, driven by the war-related fuel price spike, remains a primary headwind for the industry as it enters the peak summer travel season.
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