- Shell Post Q1 Earnings: Is the Stock Worth Betting on Now?
May 11, 2026
Shell plc SHEL just posted a big quarterly beat, delivering adjusted earnings of $6.9 billion in the first quarter of 2026, boosted by gains linked to the Middle East war that drove up energy prices and strong operations.
Last Thursday’s quarterly report showed higher contributions from trading and optimization, which reinforce the company’s standing as one of the strongest names in Big Oil. With shares beating both ExxonMobil XOM and Chevron Corporation CVX, and valuation sitting at a discount, the bigger question is whether this momentum can translate into meaningful upside for investors.
SHEL’s Integrated Business Drives Resilient Earnings
Shell’s diversified integrated energy model continues to demonstrate strong resilience, even during periods of heightened market volatility. In the first quarter of 2026, the company delivered adjusted earnings of $6.9 billion, supported by strong operational execution across upstream, refining and marketing businesses. It benefited from higher refining margins, robust trading and optimization contributions, strong lubricant demand, and solid upstream pricing. Importantly, Shell’s global trading platform once again proved to be a competitive advantage, helping the company capitalize on market dislocations caused by geopolitical uncertainty and supply disruptions.
The strength of this model is especially valuable in volatile commodity environments because weakness in one segment is often offset by strength in another. Management also highlighted operational excellence, including record production in Brazil and improved LNG Canada volumes. This operational consistency enhances earnings visibility and cash generation capability, making the stock attractive for investors.Shell plc
Image Source: Shell plc
Shareholder-Friendly Capital Allocation Adds Strength
Shell continues to reinforce its shareholder-friendly capital allocation strategy through consistent dividends and share repurchases. In the first quarter of 2026, the company launched a new $3 billion buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend by 5% to 39.06 cents per share, contributing to total shareholder distributions of $5.3 billion. Despite commodity-driven working capital pressures, Shell maintained a manageable balance sheet and reaffirmed its commitment to returning 40%-50% of operating cash flow to its shareholders. Management’s decision to raise the dividend amid geopolitical uncertainty reflects confidence in the company’s resilient cash-generating ability. Combined with disciplined spending, lower operating costs and improved capital efficiency, Shell offers investors an attractive blend of income potential, stability and long-term upside within the energy sector.
Story Continues
SHEL’s Operational Excellence Creates a Strong Competitive Edge
Shell continues to demonstrate strong operational execution supported by one of the industry’s most powerful trading and optimization platforms. In the first quarter of 2026, the company delivered resilient performance across key segments despite geopolitical disruptions and volatile commodity markets. Refinery utilization reached an impressive 99%, while LNG Canada ramped up production, helping offset supply challenges in Qatar and Australia. Shell’s planned acquisition of ARC Resources further strengthens its long-term production growth and LNG exposure. The company’s trading business also remained a major earnings driver, boosting profitability across refining, marketing and renewables. Alongside portfolio optimization, cost reductions and improved operational efficiency, Shell’s disciplined execution and trading expertise position the company to generate resilient earnings, stronger margins and consistent cash flows across market cycles.
SHEL’s Strong Price Performance, Estimate Revisions & Valuations
Shellhas posted an impressive performance over the past three months, with its shares rising 7.3% compared with the sub-industry’s 3.9% growth. Peer comparison further highlights the strength, as Shell conveniently outperformed its peers, Chevron and ExxonMobil, which lost 0.5% and 3.6%, respectively, during the same time period.Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for SHEL’s earnings per share has moved higher for 2026 and 2027. The estimates have also been revised upward for CVX and XOM over the same period.Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective — in terms of forward price-to-sales ratio — Shell is trading at a massive discount compared with Chevron and ExxonMobil, making it attractive for investors.
Valuation ComparisonZacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Verdict
Shell stands out as an attractive investment opportunity, driven by its resilient integrated business model, strong operational execution and shareholder-focused capital allocation strategy. The company continues to generate robust earnings even in volatile commodity environments, supported by its leading trading and optimization platform, high refinery utilization and growing LNG exposure. Shell’s disciplined cost management and strategic expansion initiatives further strengthen long-term cash flow visibility. At the same time, rising dividends and ongoing share buybacks highlight management’s confidence in the company’s financial strength and commitment to shareholder returns. With shares outperforming key peers while still trading at a valuation discount, Shell offers investors a compelling combination of stability, income potential and long-term upside. Overall, Shell, currently sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), stands out as a compelling investment opportunity for investors seeking high yield and leverage to favorable crude dynamics, provided they can tolerate geopolitical and commodity-driven risks.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
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- Will There Be a Recession in 2026?
May 11, 2026
(1:00) - Breaking Down The Current State of The Stock Market (26:30) - Where Should You Be Looking To Invest Right Now? (47:00) - Episode Roundup: XOM, AES, AXP Podcast@zacks.com
Welcome to Episode #484 of the Zacks Market Edge Podcast.
Every week, host and Zacks stock strategist, Tracey Ryniec, will be joined by guests to discuss the hottest investing topics in stocks, bonds, and ETFs and how it impacts your life.
This week, Tracey was joined by Zacks Chief Equity Strategist, John Blank, for another podcast episode examining the US economy and the odds of a recession.
Will there be a recession this year?
Tune into the podcast to find out what Tracey and John think about the possibility of an economic contraction.
Tracey and John, who is a PhD economist, discussed the employment situation, which is improving over 2025.
Will the Iran War be a factor on the US economy this year? Some retailers, and the housing industry, have seen consumers get more cautious because of the war. But the consumer remains resilient in the face of any of these shocks, including tariffs.
The Challenge Facing the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve is about to get a new Chairman after eight years of Jerome Powell. How will that impact monetary policy?
Inflation remains elevated over the Federal Reserve’s preferred level of 2%. And with gasoline, jet fuel, and other petrochemical products, like plastics, on the rise, it’s expected to remain elevated.
Will the Fed cut rates this year? Or will the Federal Reserve be forced to raise rates instead?
3 Stocks for Your Watch List Right Now
Warren Buffett is sitting on $400 billion in cash in the Berkshire equity portfolio. What does Warren know?
If you don’t want to chase the AI Revolution stocks, which are booming, here are some other stocks which you might want to include on a watch list.
1. Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
If you think oil is going to stay higher for longer, then investors should consider a big oil company like Exxon Mobil. Exxon Mobil is expected to grow earnings 63.8% this year on higher oil prices. The 2026 Zacks Consensus Estimate has jumped to $11.45 from $6.58 after the start of the Iran War in the last 90 days.
Shares of Exxon Mobil are up 20.1% year-to-date but it’s still cheap. It trades with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.8. A P/E ratio under 15 usually indicates value.
Exxon Mobil is also a dividend aristocrat with a long history of paying, and raising, its dividend. It is currently yielding 2.8%.
Exxon Mobil is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) due to rising earnings estimates.
Story Continues
Should you buy an oil company stock like Exxon this summer?
2. The AES Corp. (AES)
The AES Corporation is a Fortune 500 energy company. It will report first quarter 2026 earnings on May 13, 2026, after the close.
AES beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate on earnings last quarter by 30.7%. The Zacks Consensus for Q1 is looking for $0.50.
Shares of AES are flat year-to-date. It’s a value stock. AES trades with a forward P/E of 6.2. A P/E ratio under 10 usually means a company is extremely cheap.
AES pays a dividend, with a current yield of 4.9% to reward investors for their patience.
Should a utility like AES be on your watch list this year?
3. American Express Co. (AXP)
American Express is one of Warren Buffett’s favorite companies. Berkshire Hathaway has owned shares of this global payments company since 1991.
American Express is expected to grow earnings by 14.4% this year and another 14.3% next year. Shares have fallen 14.6% year-to-date, however, and that has made them more attractive on a valuation basis. American Express now has a forward P/E of 18.1.
American Express pays a dividend, currently yielding 1.2%.
Is now the time to consider buying a financial company like American Express?
What Else Should You Know About the Outlook for the Economy in 2026?
Tune into this week’s podcast with Tracey and John to find out more.
[In full disclosure, John owns shares of AES in Zacks Large-Cap Trader portfolio.]
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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- The Zacks Analyst Blog Micron, Exxon and RWE AG
May 11, 2026
For Immediate Releases
Chicago, IL – May 11, 2026 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include Micron MU, Exxon Mobil XOM and RWE AG RWEOY.
Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:
Global Oil Shock Modeling: Zacks May Market Strategy
The following is an excerpt from Zacks Chief Strategist John Blank’s full May Market Strategy reportTo access the full PDF,click here.
To explore a critical macro subject for investors, and currently more formally understand the consequences of this global oil shock? Click this hot link:
“The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflation: A Scenario Analysis”
It was published in April 2026.
The macro modeling exercise was undertaken by Lutz Kilian, Michael D. Plante, Alexander W. Richter and Xiaoqing Zhou of the Dallas Fed.
I. An Introduction to Macro Oil Shock Modeling
“The outbreak of the Iran War in February 2026 caused a major disruption to oil trade and resulted in a surge in oil prices, which was quickly reflected in higher retail gasoline prices.”
“A question of great interest to policymakers and market participants is to what extent recent and future retail gasoline price increases driven by this geopolitical event will raise headline and possibly core inflation.”
“There is also concern that these gasoline price increases may raise household inflation expectations, amplifying the direct impact of higher gasoline prices.”
“Interest in this question surged in late March 2026.”
“For example, political observers highlighted how E.U. central bankers are agonizing over how to respond to the inflationary pressures caused by the Iran War.”
“Similarly, Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about a short-term increase in inflation stemming from rising energy prices, and the International Monetary Fund warned that ‘if prolonged, higher energy prices will lead to higher headline inflation.’
“We study this inflationary impact based on U.S. data available at the end of March 2026, reflecting the real-time data constraints faced by policymakers.”
“Our analysis helps assess the impact on U.S. inflation under a range of alternative scenarios that could play out in the future.”
MODELING THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL OIL SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS
“In March 2026, the WTI price of oil increased from about $60 per barrel in late January, before military action was anticipated, to $91 per barrel on average, alongside broad-based increases in refined product prices (e.g., gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel).”
Story Continues
“In our baseline specification, the magnitude of the geopolitical oil production disruption is set to 20% of global oil production (ζe = 0.2), corresponding to a cessation of all oil exports from the Persian Gulf.”
“The expected duration of this disruption is set to 3 quarters (q¯e = 0.67), matching the length of the disruption that followed the Arab-Israeli War in 1973.”
“The subsequent effects depend on when oil shipments resume.”
“For example, if the Strait reopens after one quarter, the oil price drops to $71 per barrel in quarter 2.”
“When the oil supply shortfall lasts longer than one quarter, richer dynamics arise.”
Extending the closure to two quarters causes the oil price to rise further to $132 per barrel in Q2 before falling to $85 per barrel in Q3.
If shipping resumes after three quarters, the oil price will rise even further before declining, reaching $167 per barrel in Q3.
“Taking into consideration the path of oil and gasoline prices in each case, the model predicts that closing the Strait of Hormuz for 1, 2, or 3 quarters would increase Q4/Q4 headline PCE inflation in 2026 by 0.35, 0.79 and 1.47 percentage points, respectively.”
“The corresponding effect on core PCE inflation would only be 0.18 percentage points if the closure ends after one quarter.”
“But would rise to 0.31 and 0.49 percentage points if the closure persists for two or three quarters, suggesting potentially sizable effects on core inflation.”
The massive implication: The FOMC would be forced to raise their policy rate, if there indeed is a 0.5% rise in the U.S. core PCE inflation rate.
Note that Info Tech and Energy now lead our list at “Very Attractive." That forced S&P500 sector ranking screams “AI cap-ex buildout” and “Global oil shock.”
Read on to find the large-cap stock picks in Zacks #1 Rank list to play for aligning with that earnings out-performance.
II. Zacks May 2026 Sector/Industry/Company Telescope
April 30th, 2026 data showed Info Tech remained dominant at Very Attractive. Semiconductor EPS growth stays aloft via “AI” chips. Electronics looks great.
Energy stayed Very Attractive rating; Iran plays a major factor.
Utilities fell to Attractive, as Nat Gas Distributors led. Communication Services fell to Attractive from Very Attractive. The “AI” Telco Equipment group ranked very high.
Financials stayed Market Weight. Rising global recession risk, a private credit debacle, and possible Fed rate hikes downshifted the momentum here.
Industrials stayed at a Market Weight rating. Metal Fabricating and Pollution Control took the lead in that sector.
Health Care stayed on a Market Weight group too.
Materials remained at an Unattractive rating.
The big move up?
Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary rose to Market Weights, from Unattractive ratings.
The Forced Ranking:
(1) Info Tech stays Very Attractive. Semis, Electronics, & Computer-Office led.
A Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Large Cap Stock: Micron
(2) Energy stays Very Attractive. Oil & Gas Integrated, Oil Miscellaneous, and Oil E&P led the way. A Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Large Cap Stock: Exxon Mobil
(3) Utilities fell to Attractive from Very Attractive. Utility-Gas Distribution best.
A Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Large Cap Stock: RWE AG
Note: RWE AG is among Europe's five largest utilities.
(4) Communications Services fell to Attractive from Very Attractive. Telco Equipment stayed strong, once again. It is an “AI” group.
(5) Industrials stayed Market Weight. Metal Fabricating, and Pollution Control looked the best.
(6) Financials stayed Market Weight. Real Estate, Finance, and Investment Banking & Brokering looked best.
(7) Health Care stayed at Market Weight. Drugs and Medical Care looked best.
(8) Consumer Staples rose to Market Weight from Unattractive. Agri-business and Food/Drug Retail looked the best.
(9) Consumer Discretionary rose to Market Weight from Unattractive. Consumer Electronics looked the best.
(10) Materials stayed Unattractive. Building Products looked OK.
Now, let’s wrap it out, and see what oil industry execs think.
III. Conclusion
The Dallas Fed views the 3-quarter shock as a plausible "stressed" baseline.
It represents a world where oil hits $167, gasoline likely exceeds $5.00/gal nationally, and core inflation is dragged upward by nearly half a percent.
Will a three-quarter long global oil shock really happen?
While the working paper provides the mathematical analysis, the Dallas Fed's Energy Survey (April 2026 Update) provides the "market" probability -- based on responses from 120 oil and gas executives:
26% Probability:Executives specifically expect the disruption to last until November 2026 (3 quarters).
14% Probability:Executives expect the disruption to last longer than 3 quarters.
Their Aggregated Probability?
Collectively, oil and gas industry experts currently assign a 40% probability -- to a global oil shock lasting 3 quarters, or more.
That probability is dynamic.
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Note: Sheraz Mian heads the Zacks Equity Research department and is a well-regarded expert of aggregate earnings. He is frequently quoted in the print and electronic media and publishes the weekly Earnings Trends and Earnings Previewreports. If you want an email notification each time Sheraz publishes a new article, please click here>>>
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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- Income Investors Should Know That Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) Goes Ex-Dividend Soon
May 11, 2026
Some investors rely on dividends for growing their wealth, and if you're one of those dividend sleuths, you might be intrigued to know that Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) is about to go ex-dividend in just three days. The ex-dividend date is usually set to be one business day before the record date, which is the cut-off date on which you must be present on the company's books as a shareholder in order to receive the dividend. The ex-dividend date is an important date to be aware of as any purchase of the stock made on or after this date might mean a late settlement that doesn't show on the record date. This means that investors who purchase Exxon Mobil's shares on or after the 15th of May will not receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 10th of June.
The company's next dividend payment will be US$1.03 per share, on the back of last year when the company paid a total of US$4.12 to shareholders. Calculating the last year's worth of payments shows that Exxon Mobil has a trailing yield of 2.8% on the current share price of US$144.57. Dividends are an important source of income to many shareholders, but the health of the business is crucial to maintaining those dividends. As a result, readers should always check whether Exxon Mobil has been able to grow its dividends, or if the dividend might be cut.
We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.
Dividends are typically paid from company earnings. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned in profit, then the dividend could be unsustainable. Exxon Mobil paid out more than half (68%) of its earnings last year, which is a regular payout ratio for most companies. Yet cash flows are even more important than profits for assessing a dividend, so we need to see if the company generated enough cash to pay its distribution. It paid out 92% of its free cash flow in the form of dividends last year, which is outside the comfort zone for most businesses. Cash flows are usually much more volatile than earnings, so this could be a temporary effect - but we'd generally want to look more closely here.
While Exxon Mobil's dividends were covered by the company's reported profits, cash is somewhat more important, so it's not great to see that the company didn't generate enough cash to pay its dividend. Cash is king, as they say, and were Exxon Mobil to repeatedly pay dividends that aren't well covered by cashflow, we would consider this a warning sign.
Story Continues
See our latest analysis for Exxon Mobil
Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.NYSE:XOM Historic Dividend May 11th 2026
Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?
Companies with consistently growing earnings per share generally make the best dividend stocks, as they usually find it easier to grow dividends per share. If earnings decline and the company is forced to cut its dividend, investors could watch the value of their investment go up in smoke. For this reason, we're glad to see Exxon Mobil's earnings per share have risen 15% per annum over the last five years. Earnings have been growing at a decent rate, but we're concerned dividend payments consumed most of the company's cash flow over the past year.
Another key way to measure a company's dividend prospects is by measuring its historical rate of dividend growth. Exxon Mobil has delivered an average of 3.5% per year annual increase in its dividend, based on the past 10 years of dividend payments. It's good to see both earnings and the dividend have improved - although the former has been rising much quicker than the latter, possibly due to the company reinvesting more of its profits in growth.
To Sum It Up
Should investors buy Exxon Mobil for the upcoming dividend? The best dividend stocks typically boast a long history of growing earnings per share (EPS) via a combination of earnings growth and buybacks. So, you might think that Exxon Mobil buying back stock, growing its EPS, and retaining profits within its business is a good combination. However, we note with some concern that it paid out 92% of its free cash flow last year, which is uncomfortably high and makes us wonder why the company chose to spend even more cash on buybacks. Overall, it's hard to get excited about Exxon Mobil from a dividend perspective.
However if you're still interested in Exxon Mobil as a potential investment, you should definitely consider some of the risks involved with Exxon Mobil. For example, we've found 1 warning sign for Exxon Mobil that we recommend you consider before investing in the business.
If you're in the market for strong dividend payers, we recommend checking our selection of top dividend stocks.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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- Soaring energy profits reignite calls for windfall tax
May 10, 2026
Energy giants, including Shell, have posted strong profits in the first three months of the year as global oil prices soar due to the war in the Middle East (Ben STANSALL)·Ben STANSALL/AFP/AFP
European oil and gas companies who posted huge profits in the first quarter on soaring prices caused by the war in the Middle East face new calls from London to Paris to tax their outsized gains.
Shell rounded out the major energy producers' earnings season on Thursday by announcing net profit of nearly $5.7 billion (around 4.8 billion euro), up 19 percent on the first quarter of 2025.
The group explained it had benefited from higher prices and "increased refining margins," as well as "a higher contribution from trading activities".
It was a similar story for British rival BP, which reported a sharp rise in profits at the end of last month, posting $3.84 billion while TotalEnergies saw their profits soar 51 percent to $5.8 billion.
In contrast, US energy companies ExxonMobil and Chevron saw their profits decline, results affected by an unfavourable time lag between the sale and delivery of products within the derivatives markets.
The US-Israeli war on Iran prompted Tehran to blockade the key energy chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp drop in oil supplies on the market and a surge in prices.
A barrel of Brent crude, the global benchmark, averaged around $100 in March, with peaks of $120, compared with $70 before hostilities began in late February.
That notably helped European trio BP, Shell and TotalEnergies, which have strong trading operations -– unlike their US counterparts and rivals ExxonMobil and Chevron, which are more reliant on production activities.
The big difference this quarter is that "BP, Shell and Total benefited from both the higher prices and the turbulence itself," Stephen Innes, analyst with SPI Asset Management, told AFP.
He added that "the European majors looked less like traditional oil companies this quarter and more like sophisticated volatility traders operating inside the global energy system."
- New projects -
From London to Paris the strong results have sparked calls to tax oil company windfall profits, as occurred following the war in Ukraine which started in 2022.
"Once again, the fossil fuel giants are raking in massive profits," lamented Danny Gross of NGO Friends of the Earth in a statement which called for increased taxes on profits.
In the UK, oil companies operating in the North Sea remain subject to the Energy Profits Levy, a temporary levy on profits arising from the upstream production of oil and gas introduced in 2022, which has been extended and increased several times.
It is currently set at 38 percent of profits until 2030 and is in addition to the 40 percent of taxes already in force in the sector. However, it only applies to profits derived from UK oil and gas production.
Story Continues
The surging profits at Shell and BP has brought more calls to increase these levies, with Energy Minister Ed Miliband notably condemning what he termed "excessive profits".
French President Emmanuel Macron is meanwhile calling for a European response in the face of excessive energy firm windfall profits or "speculative behaviour".
Analysts consulted by AFP indicate companies are expected to post strong profits again in the second quarter.
"Even if tensions ease, markets do not suddenly snap back to normal overnight," observed Innes.
"I am not sure this conflict will get resolved that easily," said Adi Imsirovic, senior lecturer in energy systems at Oxford University. That would keep prices higher for longer.
That scenario is likely to stimulate new oil and gas projects, as envisaged by TotalEnergies, involving small-scale fields capable of rapid production.
Innes believes companies will prefer to put their faith in low-cost projects rather than rushing "blindly" into massive expansion.
"The winners will likely be the projects that are low-cost, flexible, and geopolitically secure, rather than massive expansion for expansion’s sake," he added.
In recent years, BP and Shell have scaled back several climate targets in favour of continuing oil and gas production.
More recently, TotalEnergies announced it could no longer commit to its 2050 carbon neutrality target, stressing the world was not yet ready to move on from oil.
The conflict has, nonetheless, brought the role of renewable energy in energy security back into the spotlight.
"This has not gone unnoticed in all capitals across the globe," said Imsirovic.
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- Argus Sees Stronger Production Growth Ahead for Exxon Mobil (XOM)
May 9, 2026
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) is included among the 10 Best Inflation-Hedge Stocks to Buy for 2026.
On May 7, Argus analyst Bill Selesky raised the firm’s price recommendation on Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) to $169 from $166. It reiterated a Buy rating on the shares. The firm pointed to Exxon’s Q1 earnings beat, while noting that results were still affected by lower production volumes tied to Middle East impacts, operational disruptions in Kazakhstan, and Winter Storm Fern in the U.S. Higher depreciation expenses also weighed on earnings. Argus added that it raised its 2026 EPS estimate by $0.30 to $7.91 following the quarter’s results and expectations for stronger production growth from the company’s Permian and Guyana assets in 2026.
During the Q1 2026 earnings call, Chairman, President, and CEO Darren Woods highlighted several operational milestones. He said Exxon increased production in the Permian year over year and also achieved record production levels in Guyana. Woods added that the Golden Pass project reached its first LNG production milestone. He also noted that refinery throughput in March increased by about 200,000 barrels per day compared with February.
Discussing LNG operations and future growth projects, Woods said Train 1 at the Golden Pass facility started producing LNG in March. He added that once the third train becomes operational, the project is expected to increase current U.S. LNG export capacity by around 15%. Woods also said Exxon continued moving toward final investment decisions for LNG projects in Papua New Guinea and Mozambique, both of which are expected later this year.
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) is one of the largest energy companies in the world. The company operates across the full energy value chain, including oil and gas production, refining, and petrochemicals, while continuing efforts to improve efficiency and streamline operations across the business.
While we acknowledge the potential of XOM as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.
READ NEXT: 10 Best Value Stocks to Buy in 2026 According To Warren Buffett and 10 Best Stocks to Buy to Beat the S&P 500
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- Shell warns the global oil market is tightening fast
May 8, 2026
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Shell (NYSE:SHEL) CEO Wael Sawan is sounding increasingly worried about the state of the global oil market, warning that the world is already dealing with a crude supply gap approaching 1B barrels as disruptions linked to the Iran conflict continue.
Speaking during Shell's earnings call, Sawan said the market has effectively dug itself a hole, with supply losses coming from both blocked shipments and barrels that are simply not being produced. More importantly, he warned that the gap is still getting larger every day the conflict drags on, and even if conditions improve, rebuilding supply will take time.
Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Sign with SHEL. Is SHEL fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator.
What makes this situation more serious is that other major energy executives are starting to echo the same concerns. Leaders at Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) have all recently warned that the market could begin feeling the effects more aggressively over the next few months, especially as inventories tighten further and countries burn through existing stockpiles.
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- Shell Q1 Earnings Beat on Trading Strength, Revenues Miss
May 8, 2026
Europe’s largest oil company, Shell plc SHEL, delivered a strong bottom line in the first quarter of 2026, helped by solid operational execution and higher contributions from trading and optimization. Earnings came in at $2.44 per ADS (on a current cost of supplies basis, excluding items), translating from adjusted earnings per share of $1.22, up 32.6% from the year-ago quarter’s 92 cents. The bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.78 by 37.1%.
However, total revenue and other income of $70.1 billion was essentially flat year over year and missed the consensus mark of $83.3 billion by 15.8%. Oil and gas production available for sale averaged 2,752 thousand oil-equivalent barrels per day (MBOE/d) during the quarter.
Shell PLC Unsponsored ADR Price, Consensus and EPS SurpriseShell PLC Unsponsored ADR Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
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SHEL’s Integrated Results Show Broad Strength
Shell posted adjusted earnings of $6.9 billion in the quarter, compared with $5.6 billion in the first quarter of 2025. Income attributable to Shell plc shareholders was $5.7 billion, underscoring that the quarter’s earnings power was supported by underlying performance across the portfolio.
Management highlighted that strong operations supported higher contributions from trading and optimization. The company also rebalanced shareholder distributions, announcing a $3 billion share buyback program for the next three months and lifting the quarterly dividend 5% to 39.06 cents per share.
Shell generated $69.7 billion in revenues in the first quarter of 2026, led by Marketing at $30.7 billion and Chemicals and Products at $19.2 billion. Integrated Gas contributed $7.7 billion, while Renewables and Energy Solutions delivered $10.6 billion, and Upstream reported $1.4 billion.
Shell’s Upstream, Marketing Lift Segment Earnings
In the Upstream segment, adjusted earnings rose to $2.4 billion from $2.3 billion in first-quarter 2025, reflecting higher realized pricing. Realized liquids prices edged up to $71.86 per barrel from $71.49, though realized gas prices fell more than 6% year over year. Total production averaged 1,843 MBOE/d, down from 1,855 MBOE/d in the March quarter of 2025.
Marketing adjusted earnings jumped to $1.3 billion from $900 million, supported by seasonally stronger Lubricants performance, strong optimization margins and lower operating expenses. Marketing sales volumes were 2,627 thousand barrels per day (Mbbl/d) versus 2,674 Mbbl/d in Q1’25, pointing to margin and cost as the key swing factors.
Story Continues
Shell’s Cash Flow Hit by Working Capital Swing
Shell’s cash flow from operating activities was $6.1 billion in the quarter, reflecting an $11.2 billion working capital outflow tied to sharp commodity price volatility. Excluding working capital movements, cash flow from operating activities was $17.2 billion.
Free cash flow came in at $2.9 billion, lower than $5.3 billion a year earlier, mainly because Shell spent heavily on operations and investments during the quarter. The company invested $4.2 billion in capital projects, while asset sales added about $400 million in cash. Cash flow was also affected by changes in hedging-related payments and taxes, showing how swings in oil and gas prices can temporarily impact reported cash generation even when the core business remains profitable.
Shell’s Balance Sheet Supports Returns
Net debt increased to $52.6 billion at the quarter's end from $41.5 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2025, with Shell noting the working capital outflow as a key driver. Gearing (net debt-to-capitalization) rose to 23.2% from 18.7%, while cash and cash equivalents were $23.1 billion. Total debt was $75.6 billion.
Shareholder distributions remained sizable. Total shareholder distributions were $5.3 billion, comprising $3.2 billion in share repurchases and $2.1 billion in cash dividends paid to Shell plc shareholders.
Shell’s Outlook Reflects Conflict and Capex Reset
Looking to the second quarter of 2026, Shell expects Integrated Gas production of 580-640 MBOE/d and LNG liquefaction volumes of 6.8-7.4 million tons (down from 7.9 million tons in first-quarter 2026), reflecting the impact of the Middle East conflict and higher planned maintenance. Upstream production is expected at 1,620-1,820 MBOE/d.
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company lifted its cash capital expenditure outlook to $24-$26 billion from $20-$22 billion previously, including roughly $4 billion related to the planned ARC Resources acquisition. Shell said the proposed deal is intended to accelerate strategy by adding complementary liquids and gas assets, while the near-term operating outlook remains tied to geopolitics and planned maintenance timing.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
A Look at Other Big Oil Earnings
While we have discussed Shell’s first-quarter results in detail, let’s take a look at some other Big Oil energy reports of this season.
American multinational ExxonMobil XOM announced first-quarter 2026 earnings that surpassed expectations, thanks to contributions from advantageous assets such as Permian and Guyana. Structural cost savings also contributed to the positive developments. ExxonMobil mentioned that Permian, the most prolific basin in the United States, will remain the growth driver, brightening the overall business outlook. The company reported earnings per share of $1.16 (excluding identified items), which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.07. Meanwhile, ExxonMobil’s total quarterly revenues of $85.1 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $81.5 billion.
Smaller rival Chevron CVX reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.41, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 92 cents. Chevron’s outperformance stemmed from higher upstream production, particularly in the United States, following the integration of Hess assets and continued growth in the Gulf of America and the Permian Basin. The company generated $2.5 billion in cash flow from operations during the first quarter of 2026, down from $5.2 billion in the prior-year quarter. Chevron’s cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, was $7.1 billion.
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- Trump meets with Brazil's Lula to talk trade, extends EU tariff deadline
May 7, 2026
President Trump met with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Thursday, while the administration extended its trade deadline with the European Union (EU) to July 4.
Yahoo Finance Washington Correspondent Ben Werschkul speaks more about what this meeting could mean for US-Brazil relations and the latest news about Trump's 25% tariffs against EU cars.
Video Transcript
00:00 Speaker A
Well, President Trump met with Brazil's President Lula, but scrapped plans for a joint press conference this morning. The two countries currently have a fragile truce after Trump briefly had that 50% tariff on the country's exports in place last year. Joining me now with the latest, Scott Yahoo Finance Washington Correspondent, Ben Werschkul. So, Ben, President Lula spoke on his own. What do we hear from him?
00:26 Ben Werschkul
Yeah, so what we heard with even with this this press conference being canceled as you mentioned was sort of more signals of thawing between these two countries that have had a real up and down relationship. You mentioned the 50% tariff. Um, Lula spoke, um, he described himself according to translation as being very happy coming out of the meeting. Um, President Trump likewise offered a summary that called Lula dynamic, uh, and that and that the the meeting went well in his words. But what we didn't get here is really kind of any specificity or advancement on policy issues. Tariffs front and center there. Um, both both Trump and the Brazilian president talked about how there's going to be more meetings at a lower level going ahead on these tariff issues. Current tariffs are currently at about 10% on Brazil, but there's a big deadline coming this summer when investigations are are up and the US could could begin to raise rates there. Another big issue um, between the two countries is rare earth minerals. Again, kind of being pushed off until until further down the road here. But overall here, I do think there is a sign that these two figures who are really, you know, on opposite sides of the spectrum and sort of had wouldn't didn't talk to each other for months early in Trump's second administration, are at least are at least are at least talking more and in kind of friendly terms. So so the signaling is good for certain.
01:52 Speaker A
Yeah, I want to ask you bottom line but you you you're watching this. What does this just mean for US Brazil relations going forward?
02:01 Ben Werschkul
Yeah, I think it I think it heralds a kind of coming period that we're in of stability. This is the third interaction that President Trump and President Lula have had in the last few months that that has been positive by all accounts. They crossed paths at the UN General Assembly. They crossed paths at a summit, um, in Malaysia a few months back, all of which they kind of came out saying positive things. And Trump did lower some of his tariffs. He this 50% tariff, he brought it down in part on his own, and then the Supreme Court ruled the tariffs illegal, so that brought it down to the 10% level, but he was kind of de-escalating before then. So we we are seeing kind of a continuation of there. And I think it's important to note a kind of desire to avoid conflict. This press conference would have been pretty inconvenient for both sides because all the questions would have been about Iran. The Brazilian president has been very outspoken on that issue, the war in Iran, uh been negative towards it. Both sides, I think it was convenient for them to avoid avoid that being the headline out of this and instead kind of talk about their continued talks and continued meetings down the road.
03:13 Speaker A
Another top trade topic, but of course, the tariffs on European automobiles and Trump uh pushing that deadline to uh July 4th. what are the chances a deal gets made by then, Ben? What do you think?
03:29 Ben Werschkul
Um, I think there's there the the question here is, I think the way the Europeans would have calculated is whether this deal gets implemented. They they're their contention is that the deal is made. Trump may be trying to sort of push different aspects of it or not. But what we do know is that there's not going to there's unlikely to be any sort of tariff raising in the short term. Trump talked about this increase of auto tariffs. He didn't directly mention them mention auto tariffs in the post, but he appears to be pushing off um, tariffs overall. The White House isn't providing more clarity on that front now. But it it does going to kind of set off a lot of back and forth here as what they're calling the Turnberry Accord kind of gets codified in both sides. The Europeans met this week and were weren't able to advance it. So now everything's are pushing towards this new July deadline that President Trump has announced. Um, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission President, her her summary of the call with President Trump today talked about tariff lowering by the July. So she's sort of hopeful there that that this is going to be a kind of a longer process of lowering of tariffs, not what Trump threatened last week of raising them.
04:50 Speaker A
And finally, Ben, uh you saw the Semaphore reporting that Trump uh now inviting CEOs, Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, Boeing, other big names on his on his China trip next week. What what did you make of that headline?
05:07 Ben Werschkul
Yeah, I mean, it's it's this is pretty normal for Trump. We've seen this on a bunch of his his trips now. The Middle East about it was almost exactly a year ago when Trump had different CEOs in every stop. But there's a few names that sort of jump out there. Nvidia is the one that jumps out to me kind of first and foremost there. That came just a couple days after um, Jensen Huang was talking about how his market share in China is zero, was which is how he's talked about it as their efforts to sell more chips there have hit stacked. So clearly he's got a lot of business to conduct there too. Boeing's another company that is kind of right in the middle of talks now. There's there's a lot of Chinese demand for more Boeing jets. So they're hoping that that part of whatever gets announced during this summit next week will include Boeing and will include the sort of the aviation industry. The the larger context here though is that there's kind of less the sense is there's less deals to be had overall. Those I I outlined the two, but they're kind of more of an exception than than a broad range of deals that we're expecting next week. So, a lot of this is going to be about relationship setting with with President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China, as sort of the the larger trade context here heading into this meeting at least is less about some sort of new big trade deal announced but being kind of maintaining the status quo on trade. Trump's talking about announcing a board of trade to manage the relationship, but not major changes in tariffs at least right now. But he'll have a lot of folks along the ride to um, to work out the relationships as they as they go forward for certain.
06:48 Speaker A
All right, Ben. Thank you, buddy. Appreciate it.
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- Oil Supply Shock Worsens amid Plunging Petroleum Inventories
May 7, 2026
Global crude oil and fuel inventories are crashing at a record speed as the supply shock from the Middle East is too big to absorb without stock depletion.
While the futures markets trade on sentiment and hopes that a U.S.-Iran deal could soon lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the actual physical disruption is enormous. It has already erased the oversupply that the market faced at the start of the Iran war. The initial buffers are gone, and now commercial inventories are depleting so fast that even an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will not reverse the stock draw for at least two months after flows from the Middle East normalize.
Analysts and executives say the global inventory situation will get worse before it gets better, as the market will need months before a potential relief arrives from an operational Strait of Hormuz.
Global Oil Inventories Crash
“Drawdowns across onshore and commodities on water, along with key hubs such as ARA, the US, and Singapore, are helping bridge supply gaps,” Sumit Ritolia at Kpler wrote in an analysis last week.
“However, inventory support remains finite and cannot sustainably offset prolonged disruptions,” the analyst noted.
Goldman Sachs has estimated that plunging global oil inventories are approaching an eight-year low, with the rate of depletion so fast that it exposes the market to further shocks.
While global oil stocks are “unlikely to hit minimum operational levels this summer, the speed of depletion and supply losses in some regions and products is concerning,” analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note earlier this week.
Total oil stocks globally have now dropped to about 101 days of expected demand. With the Strait of Hormuz inaccessible for nearly all tanker traffic, these stocks could drop to as low as 98 days of demand by the end of May, Goldman’s analysts warned.
Stocks would continue to draw down even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz begin to recover in the coming weeks, as the peak summer season is approaching and cargoes from the Middle East – assuming they begin to move through Hormuz – will need weeks to reach destinations.
Related: U.S. Fuel Exports Hit Record High as Hormuz Crisis Reshapes Global Energy Flows
Refined product stocks have been depleting even faster, with fuel stocks now down to 45 days of demand, from 50 days of demand before the war, Goldman Sachs reckons.
The fuel buffers are “approaching very low levels fast,” according to the investment bank’s analysts.
Story Continues
For example, jet fuel stocks held independently in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub fell by 4.7% in the last week of April, to their lowest level since March 2020, as imports crashed, data from Dutch consultancy Insights Global showed last week.
The 2026 surplus scenario was quickly erased by the war with “global hydrocarbon inventories being materially drawn to balance the market, already at a pace of 10 to 13 million barrels of oil per day,” Patrick Pouyanné, chief executive at TotalEnergies SE, said on the supermajor’s earnings call last week.
The world will have consumed about 1 billion barrels of inventories until supplies are restored and reach the market, Pouyanné added.
“We would exit even if the conflict, and I hope so, will end in the month of May, we would exit the conflict with clearly some very low inventories,” the executive noted.
CEO Darren Woods said on ExxonMobil’s earnings call, “it’s obvious to most that if you look at the unprecedented disruption in the world supply of oil and natural gas, the market hasn't seen the full impact of that yet.”
“There’s more to come if the Strait remains closed.”
Even if the Strait opened up today, “there's going to be a one to two-month time lag between the Strait opening up and the market seeing normal flow,” Woods said, noting that ships need to reposition themselves and take weeks to get the product to market.
U.S. Stocks Are Depleting, Too
The global stocks drawdown has reached the United States, too.
Crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 2.3 million barrels during the week ending May 1, the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday. For total motor gasoline, the EIA reported that inventories had decreased by 2.5 million barrels on top of the 6.1 million barrels lost in the week prior.
The imminent start of the driving season, further weeks of closed Strait of Hormuz, and further drops in U.S. fuel inventories are setting the stage for even higher gasoline prices in the summer, analysts say.
As of May 1, U.S. gasoline stocks were at 219.8 million barrels, per EIA data, which is 4% below the five-year average and the lowest since 2014 for this time of year.
U.S. gasoline stocks are on track to drop to historic lows of below 200 million barrels by the end of August, according to Morgan Stanley.
“The US gasoline market is genuinely tight and tightening further into summer,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note earlier this week, as carried by Bloomberg.
Despite the demand destruction already taking place in price-sensitive markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, the magnitude of this supply shock would support oil and fuel prices even if the Strait of Hormuz opened unconditionally to free traffic today, as it would take months before the return of some semblance of normality.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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