- Ferrovial (BME:FER) Valuation Check As Fair Value Sits Close To Market Price
May 12, 2026
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Why Ferrovial (BME:FER) Is On Investors’ Radar Today
Ferrovial (BME:FER) sits at around €59.76 per share, with recent returns mixed, including a gain over the past week and declines over the past month and past 3 months. Investors may be reassessing the stock’s recent move.
See our latest analysis for Ferrovial.
While the share price has eased over the past 1 and 3 months, Ferrovial’s year to date share price return of 7.99% and 1 year total shareholder return of 39.85% point to momentum that has been built over a longer period, supported by solid multi year total shareholder returns.
If today’s move has you thinking about where else returns might be building, use this moment to scan for other infrastructure linked opportunities via the 37 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks
With Ferrovial’s share price close to its analyst price target and solid multi year returns already on the board, you have to ask: is the current valuation leaving any upside on the table, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 0% Undervalued
Ferrovial’s latest fair value estimate of €59.83 sits almost exactly in line with the last close at €59.76. This puts the focus firmly on what is baked into those forecasts.
The market may be attributing too much value to Ferrovial's assets based on outsized recent increases in toll rates and revenue per transaction, which are partly a function of dynamic pricing and aggressive promotions, both of which may not be sustainable if macroeconomic or regulatory environments change. This could lead to slower future revenue growth or even a reversal if price elasticity is higher than assumed, compressing top-line growth.
Read the complete narrative.
Want to see what keeps that fair value pinned so close to today’s price? The narrative leans on measured revenue growth, slightly slimmer margins, and a richer future earnings multiple than many peers. Curious how those moving parts fit together to justify almost no gap between price and fair value? The full narrative spells out the assumptions in detail.
Result: Fair Value of €59.83 (ABOUT RIGHT)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the picture could shift if toll road pricing power weakens or if new North American project wins fall short of expectations, which would put those fair value assumptions under pressure.
Story Continues
Find out about the key risks to this Ferrovial narrative.
Another Angle On Ferrovial’s Valuation
So far, the fair value work has leaned on analyst earnings forecasts and implied P/E in 2029, which points to Ferrovial trading roughly in line with the €59.83 target. The preferred multiple view is tougher, with a current P/E of 49.6x versus a fair ratio of 30.4x and a European Construction average of 15.6x. That kind of gap suggests meaningful valuation risk if sentiment cools, so the question is whether Ferrovial’s growth profile and assets really justify staying this far ahead of the pack.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.BME:FER P/E Ratio as at May 2026
Next Steps
With sentiment in this article pulling in both cautious and optimistic directions, it makes sense to look at the numbers yourself and consider acting while views are still forming, starting with the 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include FER.MC.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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- Semafor World Economy: Ferrovial CEO Ignacio Madridejos on its Infrastructure
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- Ferrovial Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
May 8, 2026 · marketbeat.com
Ferrovial NASDAQ: FER reported what Chief Financial Officer Ernesto López Mozo called a “solid start to the year” in the first quarter of 2026, highlighting growth across its core businesses—led by North American highways—alongside continued progress at the New Terminal One project at JFK Airport and stable construction margins despite higher investment in bidding activity and IT.
- Ferrovial Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
May 8, 2026
Ferrovial logo
Vertical Aerospace Presents Its Blueprint for Sector Leadership
Ferrovial (NASDAQ:FER) reported what Chief Financial Officer Ernesto López Mozo called a “solid start to the year” in the first quarter of 2026, highlighting growth across its core businesses—led by North American highways—alongside continued progress at the New Terminal One project at JFK Airport and stable construction margins despite higher investment in bidding activity and IT.
On a consolidated basis, López Mozo said revenue grew 10.2% on a like-for-like basis, while adjusted EBITDA increased 15% and adjusted EBIT rose 10.6%, also like-for-like. He added that net debt excluding infrastructure projects stood at negative EUR 1.2 billion at the end of the quarter, meaning the group held net cash. The CFO said treasury share purchases totaled EUR 162 million during the period.
North American toll roads: 407 ETR posts strong quarter
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Ferrovial’s 407 ETR toll road in Canada delivered another strong quarter, with traffic up 8.2% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026. López Mozo attributed the increase to targeted driving offers and higher mobility tied to “a higher percentage of on-site employees,” partially offset by unfavorable winter weather.
Revenue at 407 ETR grew 20% in the quarter, and toll revenue increased 22.1%, reflecting a mix of higher toll rates effective Jan. 1, 2026 and higher traffic volumes, according to the CFO. EBITDA rose 25.4% versus the prior-year quarter, which included a Schedule 22 provision of CAD 8.1 million, “significantly lower” than in the first quarter of 2025.
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López Mozo cautioned that traffic comparisons may be distorted due to differences in promotions between periods. He noted that in Q1 2026 the asset had three months of targeted promotions, whereas in Q1 2025 broad-based promotions only began in March. He emphasized that the “demand segmentation strategy continues to work really well,” helping balance pricing, traffic distribution, and service levels while focusing on EBITDA as the key metric.
On dividends, Ferrovial did not receive 407 ETR dividends in the first quarter, but López Mozo said the board approved a CAD 500 million dividend to be paid in the second quarter of 2026. Later in the Q&A, he said the higher dividend profile was tied to both performance and improved financing, including “additional debt,” but he declined to provide guidance for the remainder of the year.
Texas managed lanes: revenue per transaction rises well above inflation
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Story Continues
In Dallas-Fort Worth, Ferrovial’s managed lanes produced “double the revenue per transaction growth,” which López Mozo said significantly outpaced U.S. inflation despite adverse weather, particularly in January, and more closures than in the prior year.
NTE: Traffic fell 3.6% due to capacity-improvement works and weather, but revenue rose 13.1% and adjusted EBITDA increased 11.2%, including a $2.4 million revenue share accrual. LBJ: Traffic declined 1.5% due to construction in adjacent corridors and weather impacts; revenue increased 9.8% and adjusted EBITDA rose 8.9%. NTE 35W: Traffic increased 1% despite weather and congestion at certain entry/exit points; revenue grew 18.3% and adjusted EBITDA increased 18.1%, including $7.5 million of revenue share accrued.
Revenue per transaction climbed sharply across the Texas assets, with NTE up 18.3%, LBJ up 11.5%, and NTE 35W up 17.3%. López Mozo said the increase was driven by a favorable traffic mix with higher heavy vehicle volumes, supported by camera-recognition technology enhancements implemented through 2025 and 2026 that improved vehicle classification. He also cited an increase in “mandatory mode events” at NTE and NTE 35W.
In response to analyst questions, López Mozo said technology was “the main driver” of revenue per transaction improvements, while better performance from commercial and heavy vehicles also contributed. He added that the technology-related benefit should “diminish” over coming months as implementation nears completion, while other factors will depend on economic conditions. On rising U.S. gasoline prices, he said the company had not identified any significant shift in behavior during the quarter and would continue monitoring.
I-66 and I-77: pricing strength offsets mixed traffic
Ferrovial’s I-66 managed lanes posted what López Mozo described as a “very solid quarter,” with traffic up 8.3% year-over-year despite adverse weather. Revenue per transaction increased 4.9%, and total revenue rose 13.6%. Adjusted EBITDA increased 16.1%.
At I-77, traffic fell 5.6%, which López Mozo attributed to adverse weather and a difficult comparison against the first quarter of last year, when alternative routes were partially closed following hurricane-related events. Revenue per transaction increased 14.2% due to higher toll rates, but adjusted EBITDA declined 11.9%. López Mozo said the decline reflected a step-up in the revenue share band from 25% to 55%, calling it “largely a first year effect” expected to normalize as revenues grow within the new band. He said Q1 adjusted EBITDA included the accrual of EUR 8 million of revenue share.
On potential future dividends and balance sheet optimization, López Mozo said the I-66 has recapitalization potential, consistent with the business plan referenced at bid stage, but added it would not occur “this year nor the next.”
Airports: New Terminal One reaches 87% completion; Dalaman faces off-peak season
At the New Terminal One (NTO) project at JFK, López Mozo said construction and integration are progressing through what he called “a crucial year.” He said the contractor has communicated an updated target in which completion of the first phase is expected in fall 2026. During the first quarter, the project began its first operational readiness and airport transfer trials and reached 87% construction progress.
On airline engagement, López Mozo said the project has secured commitments with 30 airlines, including 21 executed agreements and nine letters of intent. As of March 2026, total equity invested stood at EUR 978 million, with EUR 64 million pending and expected to be injected in 2026.
Addressing questions about timing and penalties, López Mozo said Ferrovial expects phase A completion in fall 2026, though delivery depends on contractor resourcing. He added that penalties payable by Ferrovial would require a “huge delay”—beyond June 2027—something he said is not expected. He also said the company can apply liquidated damages to the contractor if obligations are not met, though he described that as something settled “a long time” later.
At Dalaman Airport, López Mozo said the first quarter reflected the typical off-peak season. Domestic traffic supported results, with traffic up 9.8%, while international volumes were affected by geopolitical challenges in the Middle East. He said the airport remains predominantly international on a full-year basis and that the peak season began in late March, but he cautioned performance is expected to be affected by instability in the region.
Construction: stable margins, record backlog, and strong cash flow
In construction, López Mozo said margins were stable year-over-year despite higher bidding and IT costs aimed at supporting future growth. He noted:
Budimex maintained stable margins at 6.5% EBIT despite lower volumes due to adverse weather. Webber delivered higher margins benefiting from increased production and operating leverage. Ferrovial Construction margins were slightly lower due to higher investment costs related to bidding and IT, with revenues stable.
The order book remained at an all-time high of EUR 17.6 billion, up 0.5% like-for-like versus December, excluding about EUR 1.3 billion of additional projects not yet included because they are pending award or financial close, the CFO said. He added that nearly half of backlog is in Ferrovial’s core U.S. and Canada markets. Construction operating cash flow (excluding tax and dividends) totaled EUR 144 million, driven mainly by advance payments and compensations in the U.S. and Canada.
On capital allocation and financing, López Mozo said dividends from projects were “small” in the first quarter, including some from IRB in India and the Silvertown Tunnel in the U.K., and he reminded investors that managed lane dividends tend to arrive later in the year. He also said “other cash flows from or used in financing activities” totaled EUR 421 million, including the issuance of EUR 500 million in bonds in March. He added that the company announced its first scrip dividend totaling EUR 400 million.
Looking ahead, López Mozo told analysts that Ferrovial expects award decisions in the U.S. managed lanes market based on public timelines, citing Tennessee in late August and Atlanta in mid-to-late October. He also said the company’s growth strategy and remuneration plans are linked, with an update likely “not this year, but early next year,” depending on how Ferrovial balances growth and distributions.
About Ferrovial (NASDAQ:FER)
Ferrovial, SA is a Spanish multinational infrastructure company headquartered in Madrid that develops, constructs, operates and maintains transport and urban infrastructure. Its core activities include the design and construction of large civil engineering projects, the development and operation of transport concessions such as toll roads and airports, and the provision of urban and industrial services and maintenance. The company typically operates through long-term concession and public-private partnership models, combining construction expertise with asset management and operations.
Within its operating model, Ferrovial's business spans construction contracting, concession management and services.
The article "Ferrovial Q1 Earnings Call Highlights" was originally published by MarketBeat.
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- Ferrovial N.V. (FER) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
May 8, 2026 · seekingalpha.com
Ferrovial N.V. (FER) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- Ferrovial kicks off 2026 with robust operating results
May 7, 2026
Revenues and adjusted EBITDA1 reported double-digit growth, excluding the impact of exchange rates North American highways delivered outstanding results Construction division achieved a healthy order book1 and stable margins
AMSTERDAM, May 7, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Ferrovial, a leading global infrastructure company, closed the first quarter of 2026 with robust growth, supported by the strong performance of its business units. Both revenue and adjusted EBITDA1 increased, driven mainly by U.S. highways performance.Ferrovial (PRNewsfoto/Ferrovial)
"We have started 2026 with strong momentum, as evidenced by our significant revenue growth across all our North American highways, continued progress on key projects such as the New Terminal One (NTO) at JFK International Airport, and solid profitability in the Construction business. We see an attractive pipeline of assets in high-growth U.S. regions and increasing opportunities for public-private partnerships," said Ignacio Madridejos, Chief Executive Officer of Ferrovial.
Adjusted EBITDA1 rose by 15% year-on-year on a like-for-like1 basis, reaching €321 million in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, revenue totaled €2.1 billion, a 10.2% increase in like-for-like1 terms compared to the same period in the previous year, driven by substantial growth across all businesses.
Ferrovial ended the first quarter of the year with a solid financial position, with €5.5 billion in liquidity1 and consolidated net debt1 of -€1.2 billion, excluding infrastructure projects in both cases.
Operating results
The Highways division's revenue increased by 13.7% in like-for-like terms1 to €336 million in the first quarter of 2026, driven by strong growth in North America. Adjusted EBITDA1 increased 10% in like-for-like1 terms to €235 million. U.S. Express Lanes recorded strong revenue-per-transaction growth, outpacing inflation. However, traffic was affected by adverse weather conditions during the period, primarily in January.
In Canada, 407 ETR delivered outstanding performance in the first quarter of 2026, with double-digit EBITDA1 growth, despite adverse weather conditions. 407 ETR has approved the payment of a CAD 500 million dividend in the second quarter.
The Construction division's order book1 reached an all-time high of €17.6 billion at the end of the first quarter 2026, with North America accounting for 45%, Poland 25%, and Spain 14% of the total order book1. Adjusted EBIT margin1 stood at 3.1%.
In the Airports division, the New Terminal One (NTO) at JFK International Airport continued advancing toward operational readiness, achieving 87% construction progress. NTO has reached 30 commitments with airlines, including 21 executed agreements and 9 letters of intent.
Story Continues
Conference call information
Ferrovial will host a conference call on May 8, 2026, at 15:00 CEST / 9:00 a.m. EDT to discuss Q1 2026 financial results. Visit our investor relations page at https://www.ferrovial.com/en/ir-shareholders/ for more information.
KEY FIGURES
(Million euro)
Q1 2026 Q1 2025 Variation LfL1 Revenue 2,098 2,059 10.2 % Adjusted EBITDA1 321 309 15.0 % Adjusted EBIT1 198 199 10.6 % Q1 2026 Dec 2025 Consolidated net debt1 6,064 5,893 Net debt, excluding infrastructure projects1 -1,218 -1,341 Q1 2026 Dec 2025 Variation LfL1 Construction order book1/2 17,555 17,438 0.5 %
NORTH AMERICA HIGHWAYS: PERFORMANCE Q1 2026 VS Q1 2025
Variation Transactions Rev/Transaction NTE -3.6 % 18.3 % LBJ -1.5 % 11.5 % NTE 35W 1.0 % 17.3 % I-77 -5.6 % 14.2 % I-66 8.3 % 4.9 %
Variation VKT* Rev/Trip 407 ETR 8.2 % 12.4 %
*Vehicle kilometers travelled
Forward-Looking Statements
This document contains forward-looking statements. Any express or implied statements contained in this document that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, statements regarding estimates and projections provided by the Company and certain other sources with respect to the Company's financial results, financial position, business strategy, Company and joint venture project performance and completion estimates, order book, pipeline assets, expected dividends, commitments, plans, objectives of management for future operations, dividends, capital structure, as well as statements that include words such as "expect," "aim," "intend," "plan," "believe," "project," "forecast," "estimate," "may," "will", "should," "target," "anticipate" and similar statements of a future or forward-looking nature, or the negative of these terms or other similar expressions, although not all forward-looking statements contain these words. Such statements may reflect various assumptions by the Company concerning anticipated results and performance and are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, and known and unknown risks, many of which are beyond the Company's control and may be impossible to predict. Any forecast made or contained herein, and actual results, will likely vary and those variations may be material. The Company makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such statements, expectations, estimates and projections contained in this presentation or that any forecast made or contained herein will be achieved.
Risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ include, without limitation: risks related to our diverse geographical operations and business divisions; general economic and political conditions and events and the impact they may have on us, including, but not limited to, impacts on demand or public fund allocation in the industries in which we operate, and the impact of any changes in governmental laws and regulations, including but not limited to tax regimes or regulations; the fact that our business is derived from a small number of major projects; risks related to government contracting; the impact of competitive pressures in our industries, including on bid success and pricing; risks related to our acquisitions, divestments and other strategic transactions that we may undertake; cyber threats or other technology disruptions; our ability accurately to develop estimates or the impact of changes in our underlying assumptions, with respect to project plans, including project timing and budgets, and our ability to meet contractual expectations with respect thereto; the impacts of accidents, disruptions, or other incidents at our project sites and facilities; our ability to obtain adequate financing or access to capital in the future as needed and the impact of reliance on joint venture and partnership arrangements; our reliance on and ability to locate, select, monitor, and manage subcontractors and service providers; limitations on our ability to declare and fund future dividends or other distributions, and distribution processes and timelines; and the other important factors discussed under the caption "Risk Factors" in our Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, which is available on the SEC website at www.sec.gov, as such factors may be updated from time to time in our other filings with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements contained in this presentation speak only as of the date hereof and accordingly undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. We disclaim any obligation or undertaking to update or revise any forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, other than to the extent required by applicable law. Forward-looking statements in this press release are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions contained in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend such forward-looking statements to be covered by relevant safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements (or their equivalent) of any applicable jurisdiction.
About Ferrovial
Ferrovial is a leading global infrastructure company transforming highways, airports, and energy around the world. Its distinctive integrated business model supports the entire lifecycle of complex projects, from design and financing to construction, operation and maintenance. The company has a global presence and employs more than 22,500 people worldwide. North America is Ferrovial's growth engine, where it developed and is currently operating five Express Lanes across Texas, North Carolina and Virginia, and is managing the 407 ETR highway in Toronto, Canada. The company is also leading the development of the New Terminal One at JFK International Airport. Ferrovial shares trade under the ticker symbol FER on three stock markets: U.S. (Nasdaq100 Index), Spain (IBEX35), and the Netherlands. The company is included in globally recognized sustainability indices such as the Dow Jones Best-in-Class Index.
1 Non-IFRS financial measure. For the definition and reconciliation to the most directly comparable IFRS measure, refer to the Alternative Performance Measures appendix of the Q1 2026 results report. The detailed reconciliation of the Alternative Performance Measures can be found in the selected financial information available at https://www.ferrovial.com/en/ir-shareholders/financial-information/quarterly-financial-information/ (Excel file Q1 2026 Alternative Performance Measures)Cision
View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ferrovial-kicks-off-2026-with-robust-operating-results-302766339.html
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- Frerrovial posts strong Q1 growth on highways, construction strength
May 7, 2026
Investing.com -- Ferrovial reported rise in revenue growth as strong performance in its highways and construction businesses offset macroeconomic and weather-related challenges.
The company said revenue rose 1.9% year over year to 2.10 billion euros in the quarter, while like-for-like growth reached 10.2%. Adjusted EBITDA increased 4.0% to 321 million euros, with like-for-like growth of 15.0%, supported mainly by higher contributions from U.S. toll road assets and construction operations.
Ferrovial’s highways division remained the key earnings driver, generating 235 million euros in adjusted EBITDA. Canadian toll road 407 ETR recorded an 8.2% rise in traffic and a 20% jump in revenue to C$492 million, benefiting from higher toll rates and increased commuter activity in the Greater Toronto Area. EBITDA at the asset climbed 25.4%.
The company’s U.S. managed lanes portfolio also delivered strong pricing momentum, with revenue per transaction rising well above inflation across major projects including NTE, LBJ, NTE 35W, I-66 and I-77. Ferrovial said the gains were supported by higher heavy-vehicle traffic, toll adjustments and technology improvements.
Construction revenue increased 2.6% to 1.63 billion euros, led by strong growth in North America.
In airports, Ferrovial said work on the New Terminal One project at New York’s JFK Airport continued to advance, reaching 87% physical completion. The first operational readiness and airport transfer trials began during the quarter, with the initial construction phase still targeted for completion in fall 2026.
Ferrovial ended the quarter with EUR 5.45 billion in liquidity excluding infrastructure projects and ex-infrastructure net cash of 1.22 billion euros. Total consolidated net debt stood at 6.06 billion euros.
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- Ferrovial kicks off 2026 with robust operating results
May 7, 2026 · prnewswire.com
Revenues and adjusted EBITDA1 reported double-digit growth, excluding the impact of exchange rates North American highways delivered outstanding results Construction division achieved a healthy order book1 and stable margins AMSTERDAM, May 7, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Ferrovial, a leading global infrastructure company, closed the first quarter of 2026 with robust growth, supported by the strong performance of its business units. Both revenue and adjusted EBITDA1 increased, driven mainly by U.S. highways performance.
- FERROVIAL KICKS OFF 2026 WITH ROBUST OPERATING RESULTS
May 7, 2026
REVENUES AND ADJUSTED EBITDA1 REPORTED DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH, EXCLUDING THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATES NORTH AMERICAN HIGHWAYS DELIVERED OUTSTANDING RESULTS CONSTRUCTION DIVISION ACHIEVED A HEALTHY ORDER BOOK1 AND STABLE MARGINS AMSTERDAM, MAY 7, 2026 /PRNEWSWIRE/ -- FERROVIAL, A LEADING GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE COMPANY, CLOSED THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2026 WITH ROBUST GROWTH, SUPPORTED BY THE STRONG PERFORMANCE OF ITS BUSINESS UNITS. BOTH REVENUE AND ADJUSTED EBITDA1 INCREASED, DRIVEN MAINLY BY U.S. HIGHWAYS PERFORMANCE.
