- The Mosaic Co (MOS) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Cost Challenges and Strategic ...
May 12, 2026
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Phosphate Sales Volume: 1.9 million tonnes in Q1, highest in five years. Sulfur Cost: $379 per tonne in Q1; expected to rise to $540 per tonne in Q2. Ammonia Cost: Expected to be $610 per tonne in Q2. Stripping Margins: Near $400 per tonne in Q1; expected to exceed $400 per tonne in Q2. CapEx Guidance: Reduced by $250 million to $1.25 billion for 2026. Workforce Reduction Savings: Expected annualized savings of $50 million, with $15 million realized in 2026. Inventory Reduction: Phosphate finished goods inventory declined by $120 million in Q1. Brazil Operations Charge: $442 million in charges for idling operations, with $328 million non-cash.
Warning! GuruFocus has detected 6 Warning Signs with MOS. Is MOS fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator.
Release Date: May 11, 2026
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
The Mosaic Co (NYSE:MOS) has made significant investments in its US Phosphate assets, leading to high production rates at three of its four facilities. The company has a strong geographic position and diverse sources for sulfur and ammonia supply, providing a competitive advantage. Mosaic's Potash business remains strong, with robust demand in major markets and a record pace for 2026. The company is focused on optimizing its portfolio, reallocating capital to key assets, and investing in high-return opportunities. Mosaic Biosciences is experiencing rapid growth, with plans to launch 8 to 10 new products in 2026 and expected revenue doubling.
Negative Points
Geopolitical events are causing volatility in the global phosphate supply chain, impacting raw material availability and prices. The company is facing challenges with sulfur availability and high raw material costs, leading to production curtailments. Farmer economics in the US and Brazil are challenging, affecting nutrient purchasing decisions and demand. The company has had to reduce its 2026 CapEx guidance by $250 million due to market conditions. Mosaic is experiencing compressed margins in its phosphate segment due to high sulfur and ammonia costs.
Q & A Highlights
Q: Can you provide an update on the working capital release and how changes in production guidance and raw materials affect it? A: Bruce Bodine, CEO, explained that they initially anticipated a $300 million to $500 million working capital release. They saw some of this materialize with additional phosphate sales over production. However, higher input costs and seasonal working capital build in Brazil offset this. Luciano Siani Pires, CFO, added that curtailments should accelerate working capital release, offsetting the impact of increased sulfur prices. The estimate for working capital release remains at $300 million to $500 million.
Story Continues
Q: How are you viewing the US versus international market dynamics, especially with rising ammonia and sulfur prices? A: Bruce Bodine noted that international prices are higher than domestic ones, with stronger demand in international markets like Asia. Despite good international prices, high input costs make stripping margins less favorable. They are preserving sulfur for longer use and will adjust production based on raw material availability and net stripping margins. Yijun Wang, EVP Commercial, highlighted strong international demand due to low inventories and government support in countries like India and Ethiopia.
Q: What are the key milestones you are watching for the second half of the year, particularly in Brazil? A: Bruce Bodine stated that they are closely monitoring the situation in the Persian Gulf, particularly sulfur flows. Sulfur availability and affordability are critical factors. Despite current challenges, they believe these are temporary issues. Long-term fundamentals in Brazil remain promising, and they expect nutrient demand to recover as crop yields are impacted by under-application.
Q: Why are your ammonia prices higher than other companies, and what is the status of sulfur shipments blocked by the Strait of Hormuz? A: Bruce Bodine clarified that 80% of their ammonia needs are met through internal production or strategic contracts, with 20% exposed to spot prices. Luciano Siani Pires added that marginal costs drive decisions, with current marginal sulfur costs at $1,200 per tonne and ammonia at $800 per tonne. There is limited visibility on sulfur shipments blocked by the Strait of Hormuz, and refinery damage may affect supply resumption.
Q: How are you managing phosphate production curtailments, and what impact will this have on your long-term targets? A: Bruce Bodine expressed disappointment in having to curtail production despite recent improvements. They are partially reducing production at Louisiana and Bartow facilities. These are temporary measures that can be quickly reversed if raw material conditions improve. They are postponing some CapEx projects and will continue to invest in necessary areas. If the situation persists, further curtailments may be considered.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
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- Markets Await Key Inflation Data This Week
May 11, 2026
We ended “Jobs Week” on Friday with both the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closing at fresh all-time highs. Both private-sector ADP ADP jobs numbers last Wednesday and Friday’s BLS non-farm payrolls both outperformed expectations and reached triple digits. Meanwhile, Q1 earnings season continued its stellar performance as the last of the AI plays reported earnings.
This week, earnings season soldiers onward, with Cisco Systems CSCO, Alibaba BABA and tech-based nuclear energy firm Oklo OKLO reporting results this week. We’ll also see key inflation metrics this week, with both CPI and PPI data coming out Tuesday and Wednesday. The CPI Inflation Rate for April is expected to jump half a percentage point to +3.8% — nearly double outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s optimum inflation rate of +2.0%. Spiking oil prices due to the war on Iran is expected to be the main culprit.
Speaking of the Fed Chair, the Senate convenes today to confirm Powell’s successor, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Odds are he will be a strong advocate of President Trump’s insistence that the Fed lower interest rates, as Warsh has been critical of Powell’s leadership in the Fed, but it appears he will have to swim upstream against growing sentiment away from a bias toward easing.
Earnings Reports Ahead of the Opening Bell: SBH, MOS, B
Cosmetics distributor Sally Beauty SBH reported fiscal Q2 results this morning, with earnings of $0.44 per share beating the Zacks consensus by 3 cents, with revenues of $903.38 billion narrowly outperforming expectations. Shares have swung to positive territory year to date, +2.14% in today’s pre-market on the earnings news.
Barrick Mining B, formerly of the “GOLD” ticker a year ago, crushed estimates on both top and bottom lines this morning. Earnings of $0.98 per share were +32.4% ahead of the $0.74 anticipated, and in another orbit from the +$0.35 per share reported in the year-ago quarter. Revenues of $5.22 billion topped the Zacks consensus by +15.1%. Shares are up +3.8% on the news, also swinging to positive year to date.
Agricultural fertilizer supplier The Mosaic Co. MOS, on the other hand, posted a -75% negative surprise on its bottom line this morning, with +$0.05 per share reported was well off the expected +$0.20. Revenues did come in +9% over expectations to $3.0 billion for the quarter, but a cut to guidance — again citing the Iran war, particularly the closed Strait of Hormuz — have sent shares down -5% in today’s pre-market, deepening the stock’s losses year to date.
Story Continues
What to Expect from Today’s Stock Market
After today’s open, we’ll see an update on Existing Home Sales for April. Analysts look for this to dip slightly to 4.1 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units, from 4.2 million units the prior month. This is pretty close to the mid-point between near-term lows (3.93 million in June of last year) and highs (4.27 million in December of ’25).
For earnings, we anticipate shopping mall REIT Simon Property Group SPG, quantum stock Rigetti Computing RGTI and direct-to-consumer telehealth firm Hims & Hers HIMS to post earnings results after today’s close. Of these, Rigetti’s revenues are expected to come in +120% year over year, while Hims earnings are projected to snag -80% from a year ago.
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- MOS Q1 Earnings Lag Estimates on Higher Input Costs, Sales Up Y/Y
May 11, 2026
The Mosaic Company MOS posted first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 5 cents per share, down 89.8% from 49 cents a year ago. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 20 cents by 75%.
Net sales rose 14.4% year over year to $2,998 million and beat the consensus estimate of $2,749.3 million by 9%. Results reflected volatile fertilizer and raw material markets.
The Mosaic Company Price, Consensus and EPS SurpriseThe Mosaic Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
The Mosaic Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The Mosaic Company Quote
MOS' Segment Highlights
MOS’ Phosphate segment generated net sales of $1.4 billion in the quarter, up from $1.1 billion a year ago. Sales volumes increased to 1.9 million tons from 1.5 million tons, in line with our estimate of 1.9 million tons. Gross margin fell sharply to $2 per ton from $111 per ton, as higher raw material costs overwhelmed the benefit of better volumes. The average DAP selling price was $668 per ton versus $623 per ton in the year-ago quarter.
The Potash segment delivered net sales of $667 million, up from $570 million a year ago. Sales volumes were 2.2 million tons compared with 2.1 million tons in the prior-year period. The figure beat our estimate of 2.1 million tons. Gross margin improved to $88 per ton from $80 per ton. Higher realized prices more than offset a higher cost environment. The average MOP selling price rose to $265 per ton from $223 per ton.
Mosaic Fertilizantes posted net sales of $937 million, essentially flat with $934 million a year ago. Sales volumes declined to 1.6 million tons from 1.8 million tons, while gross margin compressed to $22 per ton from $69 per ton. The average finished product selling price increased to $527 per ton from $452 per ton. The company said the decision to idle operations at Araxa and Patrocinio resulted in charges totaling $442 million, which drove the reported loss in the quarter. The ongoing credit constraints in Brazil were also flagged as a headwind to distribution margins.
MOS' Financials
Mosaic ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $281.8 million, compared with $276.6 million at the end of 2025. Long-term debt (net of current maturities) was $4,271.1 million versus $4,250.9 million at the end of 2025.
Cash flow from operating activities was $104.2 million in the first quarter, up from $42.9 million a year ago, aided by improved working capital dynamics. Capital expenditures were $356.8 million, and free cash flow was negative $252.6 million, consistent with typical first-quarter seasonality.
Mosaic paid a regular dividend of 22 cents per share in the quarter.
Story Continues
MOS 2026 Outlook
For 2026, Mosaic reduced capital expenditure guidance by $250 million to $1.25 billion and maintained its potash production outlook of about 9 million tons. For the second quarter, phosphate sales volumes are expected to be 1.4 to 1.7 million tons with DAP prices of $760 to $780 per ton, while potash sales volumes are projected to be 1.9 to 2.1 million tons with MOP prices of $260 to $280 per ton. Management also reaffirmed key annual guideposts, including SG&A expense of $520 to $540 million, net interest expense of $200 to $220 million, and cash taxes of $275 to $325 million.
MOS’ Price Performance
Mosaic’s shares have lost 32.7% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 10.3% rise.Zacks Investment Research
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MOS’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks
MOS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Some better-ranked stocks in the basic materials space are Idaho Strategic Resources, Inc. IDR, NioCorp Developments Ltd. NB and Hawkins, Inc. HWKN.
Idaho is expected to report first-quarter 2026 results on May 14. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 43 cents per share, indicating 258.33% year-over-year growth. IDR sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
NioCorp is expected to report third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on May 14. The consensus estimate for NB’s loss per share is pegged at 2 cents, indicating 83.33% year-over-year growth. NB presently carries a Zacks Rank #1.
Hawkins is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results on May 13. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HWKN’s first-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 77 cents. HWKN carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present.
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- Mosaic Stock Slips After Earnings. The Iran War Is a Double-Edged Sword.
May 11, 2026
Mosaic, the fertilizer producer, reports a loss of $258 million in the first quarter amid rising input costs.
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- Inflation Numbers Out This Week: CPI, PPI
May 11, 2026
Monday, May 11th, 2026
We ended “Jobs Week” on Friday with both the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closing at fresh all-time highs. Both private-sector ADP ADP jobs numbers last Wednesday and Friday’s BLS non-farm payrolls both outperformed expectations and reached triple digits. Meanwhile, Q1 earnings season continued its stellar performance as the last of the AI plays reported earnings.
This week, earnings season soldiers onward, with Cisco Systems CSCO, Alibaba BABA and tech-based nuclear energy firm Oklo OKLO reporting results this week. We’ll also see key inflation metrics this week, with both CPI and PPI data coming out Tuesday and Wednesday. The CPI Inflation Rate for April is expected to jump half a percentage point to +3.8% — nearly double outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s optimum inflation rate of +2.0%. Spiking oil prices due to the war on Iran is expected to be the main culprit.
Speaking of the Fed Chair, the Senate convenes today to confirm Powell’s successor, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Odds are he will be a strong advocate of President Trump’s insistence that the Fed lower interest rates, as Warsh has been critical of Powell’s leadership in the Fed, but it appears he will have to swim upstream against growing sentiment away from a bias toward easing.
Earnings Reports Ahead of the Opening Bell: SBH, MOS, B
Cosmetics distributor Sally Beauty SBH reported fiscal Q2 results this morning, with earnings of $0.44 per share beating the Zacks consensus by 3 cents, with revenues of $903.38 billion narrowly outperforming expectations. Shares have swung to positive territory year to date, +2.14% in today’s pre-market on the earnings news. For more on SBH’s earnings, click here.
Barrick Mining B, formerly of the “GOLD” ticker a year ago, crushed estimates on both top and bottom lines this morning. Earnings of $0.98 per share were +32.4% ahead of the $0.74 anticipated, and in another orbit from the +$0.35 per share reported in the year-ago quarter. Revenues of $5.22 billion topped the Zacks consensus by +15.1%. Shares are up +3.8% on the news, also swinging to positive year to date. For more on B’s earnings, click here.
Agricultural fertilizer supplier The Mosaic Co. MOS, on the other hand, posted a -75% negative surprise on its bottom line this morning, with +$0.05 per share reported was well off the expected +$0.20. Revenues did come in +9% over expectations to $3.0 billion for the quarter, but a cut to guidance — again citing the Iran war, particularly the closed Strait of Hormuz — have sent shares down -5% in today’s pre-market, deepening the stock’s losses year to date. For more on MOS’ earnings, click here.
Story Continues
What to Expect from Today’s Stock Market
After today’s open, we’ll see an update on Existing Home Sales for April. Analysts look for this to dip slightly to 4.1 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units, from 4.2 million units the prior month. This is pretty close to the mid-point between near-term lows (3.93 million in June of last year) and highs (4.27 million in December of ’25).
For earnings, we anticipate shopping mall REIT Simon Property Group SPG, quantum stock Rigetti Computing RGTI and direct-to-consumer telehealth firm Hims & Hers HIMS to post earnings results after today’s close. Of these, Rigetti’s revenues are expected to come in +120% year over year, while Hims earnings are projected to snag -80% from a year ago.
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Barrick Mining Corporation (B) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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- Mosaic (MOS) Reports Q1 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say
May 11, 2026
Mosaic (MOS) reported $3 billion in revenue for the quarter ended March 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.4%. EPS of $0.05 for the same period compares to $0.49 a year ago.
The reported revenue represents a surprise of +9.04% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.75 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.20, the EPS surprise was -75%.
While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.
As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.
Here is how Mosaic performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Potash - Average finished product selling price (destination): $277.00 versus the four-analyst average estimate of $267.24. Phosphates - Sales volumes - Total Finished Product: 1,936.00 KTon versus 1,770.20 KTon estimated by four analysts on average. Potash - Sales volumes - Total Finished Product: 2,159.00 KTon versus 2,112.03 KTon estimated by four analysts on average. Mosaic Fertilizantes - Sales volumes - Total Finished Product: 1,618.00 KTon versus 1,756.94 KTon estimated by four analysts on average. Phosphates - Average finished product selling price (destination): $653.00 versus $661.17 estimated by three analysts on average. Phosphates - Sales volumes - Performance & other products: 720.00 KTon versus 703.34 KTon estimated by three analysts on average. Mosaic Fertilizantes - Average finished product selling price (destination): $527.00 versus $481.33 estimated by three analysts on average. Phosphates - Sales volumes - DAP/MAP: 1,116.00 KTon versus 978.40 KTon estimated by three analysts on average. Net Sales- Phosphates: $1.43 billion versus $1.24 billion estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +29.8% change. Net Sales- Corporate and Other: $-32 million versus $-8.41 million estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -277.8% change. Net Sales- Mosaic Fertilizantes: $937 million compared to the $855.11 million average estimate based on four analysts. The reported number represents a change of +0.3% year over year. Net Sales- Potash: $667 million versus $603.33 million estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +17% change.
Story Continues
View all Key Company Metrics for Mosaic here>>>
Shares of Mosaic have returned -10.4% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +9.1% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
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- Is Mosaic (MOS) Offering Value After A 30% Share Price Slide?
May 11, 2026
Track your investments for FREE with Simply Wall St, the portfolio command center trusted by over 7 million individual investors worldwide.
Investors may be wondering whether Mosaic's current share price reflects its underlying worth, or whether the stock is being priced too pessimistically at the moment. Mosaic recently closed at US$22.19, with the share price down 3.4% over the past week and down 30.6% over the past year. These moves can influence how the market views both its risk profile and its potential reward. Recent commentary around fertilizer demand, crop pricing, and investor sentiment toward materials stocks has been in focus, providing additional context for Mosaic's share price movements. For investors, this backdrop is important when considering whether recent weakness is driven more by sector sentiment or by company specific expectations. In this environment, Mosaic currently has a value score of 6 out of 6. This raises a clear question about how different valuation methods assess the stock today and whether there might be a better way to evaluate its value, which will be explored at the end of this article.
Find out why Mosaic's -30.6% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
Approach 1: Mosaic Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a stock might be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back into current dollars. It is essentially asking what Mosaic’s future cash generation could be worth in today’s terms.
For Mosaic, the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model uses recent free cash flow, which shows a loss of about $487.2m over the last twelve months. It then applies analyst projections and longer term estimates. Analyst inputs run through to 2030, with projected free cash flow of $700m in that year, and Simply Wall St extrapolates further years based on those trends.
Across the ten year projection window, annual free cash flows are forecast in a range of roughly $467m to about $851.2m, all in $. After discounting these future figures back to today, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $35.09 per share.
Compared with Mosaic’s recent share price of $22.19, the DCF output implies the stock trades at roughly a 36.8% discount to this estimate. This indicates potential undervaluation under these assumptions.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Mosaic is undervalued by 36.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 49 more high quality undervalued stocks.
Story Continues
MOS Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Mosaic.
Approach 2: Mosaic Price vs Earnings
For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful way to relate what you pay for a stock to the earnings it currently generates. It helps you see how many dollars investors are willing to pay today for each dollar of current earnings.
What counts as a “normal” P/E can vary, since investors usually accept a higher multiple when they expect stronger growth and lower perceived risk, and look for a lower multiple when growth expectations are more modest or risks are higher. Mosaic currently trades on a P/E of 13.04x. That sits below the Chemicals industry average of 23.97x and the peer group average of 18.66x.
Simply Wall St also uses a proprietary “Fair Ratio” to estimate what Mosaic’s P/E might be given factors such as its earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and risk characteristics. This Fair Ratio for Mosaic is 23.94x, which aims to be more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the broader industry because it adjusts for the company’s own fundamentals and risk factors. Comparing the current P/E of 13.04x with the Fair Ratio of 23.94x suggests Mosaic is trading below this fair multiple estimate.
Result: UNDERVALUEDNYSE:MOS P/E Ratio as at May 2026
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Mosaic Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St's Community page you can use Narratives, which are clear stories that tie your view of Mosaic's business to specific forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins, then to a Fair Value that you can compare with the current share price to help inform your decision. These Narratives update as new news or earnings arrive and reflect very different perspectives, such as a more optimistic Mosaic Narrative with a Fair Value of US$40.00 and a more cautious Mosaic Narrative with a Fair Value of US$24.00. All of this is presented in a simple, accessible format used by millions of investors.
Do you think there's more to the story for Mosaic? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!NYSE:MOS 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include MOS.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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- Mosaic First-Quarter Earnings Miss Estimates; Withdraws 2026 Phosphate Production Guidance
May 11, 2026
Mosaic (MOS) first-quarter earnings fell more than expected year over year, while the fertilizer com
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- Amazon's,Cisco, Applied Materials and Mosaic are part of Zacks Earnings Preview
May 11, 2026
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – May 11, 2026 – Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week’s list includes in Amazon’s AMZN, Cisco Systems CSCO, Applied Materials AMAT, Mosaic MOS.
Beyond Mega-Cap Tech: Q1 Earnings Confirm Broadening Growth Trend
The Q1 earnings season reconfirmed the steadily improving earnings outlook we have consistently highlighted in our earnings commentary.
The earnings focus lately has been on the blockbuster mega-cap Tech players in the Magnificent 7 group of companies, but results have been impressive across the board in all sectors. Most companies have comfortably exceeded Zacks Consensus EPS and revenue estimates and are showing accelerating earnings and revenue growth trends.
Most importantly, the substance and tone of management guidance has largely been reassuring, notwithstanding the uncertain geopolitical backdrop. This is keeping the aggregate revisions trend positive, which we discuss in some detail later on.
Regular readers of our earnings commentary are familiar with the steadily improving earnings outlook we have consistently highlighted over the past year. This improvement in the earnings outlook has been driven mostly by the Tech sector over the past year, with positive Tech sector estimate revisions offsetting negative revisions elsewhere, keeping the aggregate revisions trend in the neutral-to-positive direction.
This favorable revisions trend modestly expanded beyond its Tech sector core over the last couple of quarters and we are seeing that at play for 2026 Q2 as well, as we show nearby.
As you can see in the above chart, the current expectation is of +21.7% earnings growth in 2026 Q2 on +10.2% higher revenues.
Estimates have moved higher for 7 of the 16 Zacks sectors since the quarter got underway. These sectors are: Tech, Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Retail, and Business Services.
The positive revisions trend for the Energy and Basic Materials sectors is primarily a function of the conflict in the Persian Gulf and its effect on the supply of oil, LNG, and other commodities.
The upgrade to Retail sector earnings estimates is primarily driven by momentum in Amazon’s business, which we group in the Zacks Retail sector. We suspect that elevated oil prices will prove to be a significant headwind for the sector’s profitability. The negative impact on the retail sector’s earnings outlook will mostly be through diminished consumer demand, but the freight/logistics component will also be stressed by high oil prices.
Story Continues
On the negative side, Q2 estimates have declined for 9 of the 16 Zacks sectors. The sectors suffering the most declines include Transportation, Autos, Consumer Discretionary, Construction, Finance, and Consumer Staples.
2026 Q1 Earnings Season Scorecard
Through Friday, May 8th, we have seen Q1 results from 446 S&P 500 members or 89.2% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these 446 index members are up +21.2% from the same period last year on +10.3% higher revenues, with 79.6% beating EPS estimates and 78% beating revenue estimates.
We have more than 500 companies on deck to report Q1 results this week, including 11 S&P 500 members. Notable companies reporting this week include Cisco Systems, Applied Materials, Mosaic, and others.
The Earnings Big Picture
As noted earlier, 2026 Q1 earnings are on track to be up +23.9% from the same period last year on +10.9% higher revenues, with 13 of the 16 Zacks sectors expected to enjoy positive earnings growth. Earnings growth for the quarter would be +10.1% when the Tech sector’s substantial contribution is excluded and +16.7% on an ex-Mag 7 basis.
Importantly, 2026 Q1 aggregate earnings are on track to be a new all-time quarterly record.
For calendar year 2026, total S&P 500 earnings are currently expected to be up +19.7%, compared to +13.1% earnings growth last year and +16% expected next year.
All 16 Zacks sectors are currently expected to enjoy positive earnings growth in 2026, a development that we haven’t seen in a very long time. The Tech and Energy sectors are big contributors to earnings growth in 2026, with +33.2% and +56.7% earnings growth, respectively.
Excluding the Energy sector’s substantial contribution, 2026 earnings growth for the rest of the index would +17.9% (vs. +19.7% otherwise. Excluding the Tech sector, index earnings would be up +12.8% in 2026.
The Mag 7 group is expected to enjoy +26.2% earnings growth on +18.6% revenue growth in 2026, following the group’s +24.8% earnings growth in 2025. The Mag 7 group is on track to account for 27% of all index earnings in 2026. But the aggregate growth picture remains robust and the strongest in the post-COVID period.
For a detailed look at the overall earnings picture, including expectations for the coming periods, please check out our weekly Earnings Trends report >>>>Record Earnings Expected in 2026 Q1
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The Mosaic Company (MOS) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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- Mosaic (MOS) Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates
May 11, 2026
Mosaic (MOS) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.05 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.2 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.49 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -75.00%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this fertilizer maker would post earnings of $0.48 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.22, delivering a surprise of -54.17%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once.
Mosaic, which belongs to the Zacks Fertilizers industry, posted revenues of $3 billion for the quarter ended March 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.04%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $2.62 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Mosaic shares have lost about 7.9% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 8.1%.
What's Next for Mosaic?
While Mosaic has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Mosaic was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.23 on $3.16 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $1.56 on $12.79 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Story Continues
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Fertilizers is currently in the top 15% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Another stock from the same industry, ICL Group (ICL), has yet to report results for the quarter ended March 2026. The results are expected to be released on May 13.
This potash and fertilizer producer is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.10 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +11.1%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
ICL Group's revenues are expected to be $1.83 billion, up 3.9% from the year-ago quarter.
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The Mosaic Company (MOS) : Free Stock Analysis Report
ICL Group Ltd. (ICL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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