- LeBron James was on the Cleveland Cavaliers the last time Nike stock traded at these lows
May 15, 2026
In September 2014, Nike (NKE) athlete LeBron James returned to his hometown team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, after four seasons with the Miami Heat.
Around that time, on Sept. 25, Nike’s stock closed at $39.88. It marked a closing low for Nike’s stock that hasn’t been seen since. But it’s a level Nike is quickly closing in on today.
NYSE•USD
(NKE)
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42.02 -0.32 (-0.76%)
At close: May 14 at 4:00:02 PM EDT Advanced Chart
The news: On Thursday, Nike’s stock took out its prior 52-week low of $42.09, set on April 13, as a nasty post-earnings slide continues to rage. Shares are down 34% year to date compared to a roughly 10% gain for the S&P 500 (^GSPC).
To put it in context, Nike's all-time high closing price was $177.51 on Nov. 5, 2021. From that peak to today's low of around $42, the stock has fallen over 75% — an extraordinary destruction of shareholder value for one of the most iconic brands in the world.
The five-year return on Nike stock is -69% — meaning investors who bought five years ago have lost two-thirds of their money.
Coincidentally, James is back to weighing whether to return to the Cavaliers to finish out his career.LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers waits on the court during a game against the Milwaukee Bucks at the BMO Harris Bradley Center on November 29, 2016, in Milwaukee, Wisc. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)·Stacy Revere via Getty Images
The analysis: The company’s latest earnings day was littered with red flags as it undergoes a restructuring and tougher competition from the likes of Adidas (ADS.DE) and upstarts such as On Holding (ONON).
On top of that, Nike has faced continued pressure on its all-important China business. Sales in China fell 10% from the previous year, with digital sales down 21% and wholesale off by 13%.
The other point of contention was guidance.
For Nike’s fiscal fourth quarter (the current quarter), management reported it expects sales down 2% to 4% and gross profit margins down 25 to 75 basis points. Citi analyst Paul Lejuez calculated Nike’s guidance equates to fourth quarter earnings per share guidance of $0.05 to $0.15, below consensus forecasts at the time for $0.20.
“Near-term actions to stabilize the business make it difficult to get confident that revenues will be ready to turn by early calendar 2027,” said Evercore ISI analyst Michael Binetti.
The bottom line: It should be pretty embarrassing for Nike CEO and veteran company man Elliott Hill to see shares trading at these brutally low levels, given the company’s stature and industry positioning. Hill has been making the media rounds this year, recently appearing on the Today show, to drive hype for his turnaround.
The charm offensive hasn’t worked.
When Hill was named CEO in October 2024, he was seen as “the chosen one” by the investment community, a well-regarded longtime Nike C-suite leader with deep ties to its culture. If anyone was going to jumpstart Nike, it was supposed to be Hill.
Story Continues
It hasn’t happened yet for numerous reasons, including brutal competition from rivals making better running sneakers and cost pressures from tariffs and transportation. All of this despite Hill's deep restructuring of Nike to free up costs and decision making.
One has to wonder how much more rope Hill will get here, especially with the founding Nike family, the Knights, still on the board.
Another person who’s on the board, should it not work out for Hill, is longtime Nike director and Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook. We hear he will have more free time when he turns the CEO role over to John Ternus later this year. Just saying.
Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor and a member of Yahoo Finance's editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.
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- On Holding: Strong Q1, Better Margins, And Still A Buy
May 15, 2026 · seekingalpha.com
On Holding delivered strong Q1 '26 results, and management raised gross margin and EBITDA margin guidance for FY26. ONON's Asia-Pacific net sales surged 61% CC, highlighting APAC as a key growth catalyst. Gross margin reached 64.2%, and adjusted EBITDA margin hit 21%, both exceeding guidance and consensus.
- ON Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
May 14, 2026 · marketbeat.com
ON NYSE: ONON reported what executives described as an “outstanding” start to 2026, with first-quarter net sales surpassing CHF 800 million for the first time and profitability expanding as the company reiterated its full-year growth outlook.
- Nike freefall hits 12-year low: 3 forces behind $20 YTD wipeout & weak guidance
May 13, 2026
[Nike Department Store]
Nike (NKE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NKE]) is facing a sharp freefall, with the stock dropping from around ~$62 at the start of the year to nearly ~$42.3 now. This marks a 12-year low since 2015, as per chart-based tracking reported [https://x.com/Polymarket] by Polymarket.
The crash has erased roughly ~$20 per share, leading to a ~34% YTD decline, while the S&P 500 (SP500 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500]) has delivered an 8.11% gain in the same period.
The downtrend has not been gradual. Selling pressure clearly accelerated from March onward, as seen in the TradingView chart [https://in.tradingview.com/chart/Mh2Op6Uj/?symbol=NYSE%3ANKE].
[Nike price chart showing sharp YTD decline in 2026]
Nike price chart (TradingView)
Technical indicators also reflect weakness, with RSI hovering near oversold levels and MACD staying weak for most of the recent sessions. This shows continuous bearish momentum so far.
On the fundamental side, multiple negative triggers have weighed on sentiment. A consumer lawsuit [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4590238-nike-sued-over-failure-refund-tariff-costs] filed in Portland, Oregon federal court added pressure, questioning refund-related rulings from February.
At the same time, Nike disclosed tariff-related costs of nearly ~$1.0B, which reportedly pushed higher pricing in footwear and apparel by $5–$10 ranges. These issues added to already weak demand concerns.
Even after a recent Q3 earnings beat [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4575041-whats-next-for-nike-after-a-15-post-earnings-drop], net income fell nearly 32% last quarter, showing profitability pressure. Weakness also extends across EMEA markets.
The China problem remains structural and continues to hurt growth. Management expects about a 20% decline in the region in Q4, with broader guidance pointing to a 2%–4% sales decline in fiscal Q4.
From a technical view, the stock is now sitting near a key support zone around $42, so a break below it could open downside toward the $30s range.
However, on the upside, resistance is seen near $45; a breakout above this metric may trigger a rebound toward $55, but the overall trend remains weak.
Other consumer discretionary stocks to watch include Adidas (ADDYY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ADDYY]), On Holding (ONON [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ONON]), Deckers Outdoor (DECK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DECK]), Birkenstock Holding (BIRK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BIRK]), and Crocs (CROX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CROX]).
MORE ON NIKE
* Nike: A Buy Into The Window That Has Never Failed [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4895343-nike-a-buy-into-the-window-that-has-never-failed]
* Nike: Please Just Don't Do It [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4891897-nike-please-just-dont-do-it]
* Nike: Dividend Yield Approaching 4% Is Attractive, But A Cut Could Be Looming [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4890963-nike-dividend-yield-approaching-4-percent-is-attractive-but-cut-looming]
* Nike faces lawsuit over failure to refund tariff costs [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4590238-nike-sued-over-failure-refund-tariff-costs]
* Tariff refunds: A win for importers, but not so much for consumers [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4578600-tariff-refunds-a-win-for-importers-but-not-so-much-for-consumers]
- On Holding: 'Buy' The Dip As Asia And Apparel Sales Soar
May 13, 2026 · seekingalpha.com
On Holding shares have declined ~30% YTD despite robust Q1 sales growth and a raised full-year profit outlook. ONON is capturing market share with near-30% constant currency growth, outpacing flat revenue at Nike in a mature sportswear category. Gross margins remain in the mid-60s, reflecting premium positioning and resilience to tariffs, while Asia revenue growth outpaces core U.S. and Europe markets.
- KeyBanc Cuts On Holding Price Target to $43: Tariff Concerns Pressure the Growth Story
May 13, 2026
Quick Read
On Holding (ONON) delivered Q1 2026 revenue of $1.07B, beating estimates by 22% with 64% gross margin and Asia-Pacific revenue up 44% year-over-year, but absorbed $70.43M in tariffs during the quarter. KeyBanc cut its ONON stock price target to $43 from $58 due to tariff headwinds from Vietnam sourcing concentration, yet maintained an Overweight rating because the company’s 23%-plus growth guidance remains achievable and excludes potential tariff refunds. The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and On Holding wasn't one of them. Get them here FREE.
An analyst firm is stepping back on price, but not on conviction. KeyBanc lowered its price target on On Holding to $43 from $58 while keeping its Overweight rating, framing the move as a recalibration tied to tariff exposure rather than a break in the long-term growth thesis. For investors weighing the premium athletic name, the message is mixed: near-term headwinds are real, but the underlying brand momentum still has Wall Street's attention.
The price target cut on On Holding (NYSE:ONON) lands one day after the Swiss footwear brand delivered a sizable Q1 2026 beat. ONON stock closed at $33.83 on May 12, and the shares are down about 27% year to date (YTD).
Ticker Company Firm Action Old Rating New Rating Old Target New Target ONON On Holding KeyBanc Price Target Cut Overweight Overweight $58 $43
The Analyst's Case
KeyBanc's reset reflects tariff-related cost pressure rather than a deteriorating brand. The firm continues to view On Holding's reiterated 23%-plus constant currency growth guidance as conservative if current demand trends persist. That language is unusually bullish for a downgrade-in-target call.
The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and On Holding wasn't one of them.Get them here FREE.
The other nuance is potential tariff relief. KeyBanc flagged that tariff refunds could serve as incremental upside if and when they materialize, a scenario On Holding's own guidance explicitly excludes.
Company Snapshot
On Holding is a premium Swiss sportswear brand competing with Hoka, Nike (NYSE:NKE), and other performance labels in running and lifestyle. On Holding's Q1 2026 revenue came in at $1.07 billion, beating estimates by 22%, with gross margin of 64%.
Asia-Pacific is the standout, with revenue up 44% year-over-year. On Holding also disclosed approximately $70.43 million in IEEPA tariffs absorbed during the quarter, with co-founders David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti stepping back in as Co-CEOs.
Story Continues
Why the Move Matters Now
Tariff exposure is the central issue. Roughly 90% of On Holding's footwear and 65% of apparel are sourced from Vietnam, and the company's full-year outlook embeds a 20% incremental tariff rate on Vietnam imports.
The valuation backdrop also matters. ONON stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 24x, with a consensus analyst target of $56.42. KeyBanc's $43 marks one of the more cautious Street views, though the Overweight tag keeps the firm in the bull camp.
What It Means for Your Portfolio
For prudent investors, KeyBanc's call captures both sides of the On Holding stock debate. The bull case rests on premium pricing power, accelerating Asia-Pacific growth, and apparel revenue that rose 45%. Customers paying $150 to $200 for performance shoes tend to absorb tariff pass-through better than mass-market buyers.
The On Holding bear case rests on Vietnam concentration, a beta of 2.087 that has translated into sharp drawdowns, and growth deceleration from 36% in 2025 to a guided 23%-plus this year. The Overweight rating signals that KeyBanc sees this as a near-term recalibration, not a thesis change, leaving moderate position sizing as a sensible posture while tariff clarity develops.
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This analyst's 2025 picks are up 106% on average. He just named his top 10 stocks to buy in 2026. Get them here FREE.
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- Jim Cramer on On Holding: “Very Quick Management Turnover There Without a Lot of Explanation”
May 13, 2026
On Holding AG (NYSE:ONON) was among Jim Cramer’s stock calls on Mad Money as he discussed how semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks are driving the market higher. Cramer expressed concern about the stock, as he commented:
At the same time, we get earnings from not one, but two sports apparel plays: On Holding and Under Armour. Now, I’m worried about On. Some very quick management turnover there without a lot of explanation.
Photo by jason briscoe on Unsplash
On Holding AG (NYSE:ONON) designs and distributes athletic footwear, clothing, and accessories for performance sports and everyday activities. During the lightning round of the April 8 episode, a caller asked about the stock, and Cramer responded:
You know what? First of all, thank you for calling in, but it lost its CEO. I don’t understand how that happened. It was all very strange. I’m going to have to say, take a pass. I’m sorry, but I love you guys calling in, but I need to take a pass on On.
While we acknowledge the potential of ONON as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.
READ NEXT: 33 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 15 Stocks That Will Make You Rich in 10 Years
Disclosure: None. Follow Insider Monkey on Google News.
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- KeyBanc Cuts On Holding Price Target to $43: Tariff Concerns Pressure the Growth Story
May 13, 2026 · 247wallst.com
An analyst firm is stepping back on price, but not on conviction. KeyBanc lowered its price target on On Holding to $43 from $58 while keeping its Overweight rating, framing the move as a recalibration tied to tariff exposure rather than a break in the long-term growth thesis.
- Assessing On Holding (NYSE:ONON) Valuation After Record Q1 Results And Upgraded Growth Outlook
May 13, 2026
Never miss an important update on your stock portfolio and cut through the noise. Over 7 million investors trust Simply Wall St to stay informed where it matters for FREE.
Why On Holding’s latest earnings are drawing investor attention
On Holding (NYSE:ONON) is back in focus after record first quarter 2026 results, with net sales above CHF 830 million, higher profit margins, and fresh guidance that points to at least 23% constant currency net sales growth for the year.
See our latest analysis for On Holding.
Despite the strong first quarter update and higher margin guidance, On Holding’s share price has come under pressure, with the stock down about 28% year to date and the 1 year total shareholder return down about 41%, although the 3 year total shareholder return remains positive at about 12%.
If this earnings reaction has you looking beyond a single stock, it could be a good moment to widen your watchlist with 20 top founder-led companies
So with record quarterly earnings, margin upgrades and a share price that has fallen sharply over the past year, is On Holding now trading below what its growth and profitability might justify, or is the stock already pricing in years of expansion?
Most Popular Narrative: 40% Undervalued
At a last close of $33.83 versus a narrative fair value of $56.41, On Holding is framed as materially undervalued, with that gap built on detailed growth and margin assumptions.
The acceleration in DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) and e-commerce channels, with DTC reaching new highs (41.1% of sales in Q2 and up 54% YoY), gives On more control over brand, pricing, and customer data while increasing gross and EBITDA margins, an operational catalyst likely to further expand profitability as DTC continues its mix shift.
Read the complete narrative.
Want to understand why this narrative leans into higher future profitability and still assumes a premium earnings multiple? The entire case rests on how revenue, margins and the required return are wired together. The specific growth paths, profitability levels and discount rate it uses might surprise you.
Result: Fair Value of $56.41 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, that upbeat narrative can unravel if heavy spending on marketing and new regions squeezes margins, or if premium pricing starts to push customers toward cheaper rivals.
Find out about the key risks to this On Holding narrative.
Another angle on valuation
That 40% undervalued narrative leans heavily on growth and margin forecasts. Yet on a simple P/E lens, On Holding trades at 42.9x earnings versus a peer average of 23.4x and a fair ratio of 25.9x. This points to a rich valuation rather than a bargain. So which story do you trust more?
Story Continues
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.NYSE:ONON P/E Ratio as at May 2026
Next Steps
With mixed signals across valuation, profitability and sentiment, it is worth moving quickly and checking the data yourself rather than relying on one narrative. To weigh up the full picture of concerns and bright spots, take a close look at the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
Looking for more investment ideas?
If you stop at one stock, you could miss other compelling setups across quality, income and low risk opportunities that might fit your goals even better.
Hunt for quality at a discount by scanning companies that screen as 44 high quality undervalued stocks before the crowd pays closer attention. Strengthen your income stream by checking out companies filtered as 13 dividend fortresses that may align with your yield targets. Prioritise resilience over excitement by focusing on businesses in the 69 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on stability.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ONON.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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- ONON: Premium Growth At A Discount
May 13, 2026 · seekingalpha.com
On Holding is rated Buy with a $46 twelve-month price target, offering 29% upside from current levels. ONON's premium brand, 63% gross margins, and DTC sales nearing 50% of revenue underpin its high-quality growth profile. Recent stock weakness stems from softer FY2026 guidance, CEO departure, and tariff concerns, but fundamentals remain robust.
