- Why this analyst says Target's rebounding stock is overvalued
May 13, 2026
Target (TGT) has a lot to prove on its May 20 earnings day.
And one Wall Street analyst is betting the only thing it will prove on earnings day is that the stock is overvalued.
The news: BofA analyst Christopher Nardone reiterated his Underperform rating on Target’s stock in a note on Wednesday. Shares fell 1% in afternoon trading.
Explains Nardone, “While we expect a strong 1Q print, we remain cautious due to 1) decelerating sales trends post 1Q amidst an environment where the tax refund tailwind on spending fades, 2) lapping pricing tailwinds from tariffs in the second half of the year, and 3) the war/higher gas prices linger.”
Nardone said if there’s no relief in gas prices by the time Target reports earnings, “we think the company will likely provide a balanced tone on its outlook (cautiousness on macro but optimism on merchandising advancements).”
Target, at a glance: Target's holiday season was terrible, a culmination of its heavy exposure to discretionary items and shoppers' perception that its merchandise was too expensive.
Not helping matters was lingering consumer angst over how Target management handled highly publicized social issues. The retailer notched a fourth straight quarter of falling customer transactions (aka traffic). Comparable sales fell 2.5%, while Walmart US saw a comparable sales gain of 4.6%.
For the full year 2025, Target's net sales fell 1.7% to $104.8 billion, down from $106.6 billion in 2024. The decline was more pronounced in profitability, as operating income dropped 8.1% to $5.1 billion.
The stock has jumped since the company reported earnings in early March, however.Customers shop at a Target store on February 10, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)·Scott Olson via Getty Images
Shares have gained roughly 6% as investors eye a turnaround under new CEO Michael Fiddelke, who has moved to streamline costs. He has also sought to improve the chain’s apparel partnerships, adding names like Roller Rabbit and Parke.
There is a further view that Target’s 2026 can’t be more dreadful than 2025. In Wall Street speak, it’s called Target is going up against “easy comparisons.”
Nardone is pushing back on that narrative.
“While we are encouraged by early traction from these high heat apparel collabs, we think broader changes across other categories and investments in the store fleet will take time to play out and worry that expectations on a swift EPS recovery could prove aggressive,” Nardone said.
Bottom line: I have said it before and will say it again. Target remains a show-me stock. Show me you can execute better. Show me consumers are embracing the changes. And now show me you can do all of this with gas above $4 a gallon.
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Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor and a member of Yahoo Finance's editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.
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- 'Target went to hell' — and the man tasked with saving it started there as a summer intern 20 years ago
May 13, 2026
Target's recently-crowned CEO is undergoing trial by fire. Michael Fiddelke, formerly COO, replaced Brian Cornell in February this year. His appointment was announced in August 2025, in the midst of a slump from which Target (NYSE: TGT) has yet to recover. (1)
Many view the appointment as an attempt to reverse Target's downhill slide. Target's stock has slumped more than 50% since its lofty pandemic peaks (2), customer traffic to the store has declined for four straight quarters (3), and margins have thinned (4) since pre-pandemic highs. (5)
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As Fiddelke takes center stage, analysts and investors are eager with anticipation. It seems Target's future hinges on fresh leadership. The question on everyone's lips: can he return Target to its glory days?
Analysts said 'no thanks'
Fiddelke's appointment last August was met with strong skepticism.
"We have very mixed feelings about this appointment," said Neil Saunders, managing director of research firm GlobalData (6). "While we think Fiddelke is talented and has a somewhat different take on things… this is an internal appointment that does not necessarily remedy the problems of entrenched group think and the inward-looking mindset that have plagued Target for years."
Analysts were especially skeptical of Fiddelke's insider status. As Wells Fargo analysts put it:
"[Target] has stumbled recently with customer mis-steps, merchandising issues, poor employee morale, execution, and competitive pressures. The time seemed right for a new set of eyes and ideas; either the company disagreed or could not find a high profile executive to take on the challenge." (7)
Some industry experts blamed Fiddelke specifically for Target's decline. "Target went to hell — and he has to be guilty of some of that," said Mark A. Cohen, a past director of retail studies at Columbia University and former Sears top executive. (8)
The consensus seemed to be that Target needed an outsider to come in and shake things up. Fiddelke, an employee of 20 years — who started as an intern — was far from an outsider. (9)
The market appeared to agree with analyst sentiment. It responded to Fiddelke's appointment by dropping Target stock 10% premarket and the stock ended the day down 6%. (10) The message was clear: if Fiddelke wanted Wall Street's approval, he would have to earn it.
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Fiddelke moves, analysts approve
Since his tepid welcome, Fiddelke has made a series of much-approved changes to Target.
In a 2025 memo to employees, the incoming CEO revealed the company would be laying off 1,800 employees to speed up decision-making. (11) Analysts approved the move. As CFRA analyst, Arun Sundaram, put it, "[The cuts demonstrate that] Fiddelke is willing to make decisive, and potentially uncomfortable, moves early in his tenure." (12)
Changes continued into Fiddelke's first two weeks of CEO tenure, when the company announced 500 additional job cuts and, perhaps more importantly, changes to leadership. Two executives left the company; promotions were awarded to a former chief guest officer and the former chief merchandising officer for food, essentials, and beauty. (13)
Analysts seemed to approve. Jeffries analysts called the new appointments "directionally positive." (14) The appointments followed the heels of a Board shakeup where Fiddelke replaced multiple members of Target's board of directors.
Positive analysts were rewarded during Target's fourth-quarter earnings call. On March 3, the stock had its highest close in a year (15), ending the quarter up 6.7% in response to a series of announcements. (16) Fiddelke highlighted "positive sales growth" in February. (17)
The framing was that of an iconic company making a comeback. Big changes were afoot. Investors would see "more change to what we sell and how we sell it than you've seen in a decade," Fiddelke said. (18)
Forecasts to keep an eye on
Investors would be wise to hold Fiddelke accountable to his team's forecasts.
During fourth-quarter earnings, Target forecasted a 2% increase in 2026 net sales compared to the year prior. (19) That would be a strong signal Fiddelke and his team are drumming up interest in the retailer's products — interest that has diminished since its 'Tar-zhay' glory days.
On the call, Fiddelke said the company would be leaning into its strengths in the Beauty and Home departments specifically. (20) Executive VP Cara Sylvester promised a 75% overhaul of decorative accessories by June, the relaunch of home-brand Threshold this summer, and the introduction of Target Beauty Studios into 600 stores this fall.
The team also promised no synthetic colors in any of the cereal Target sells by May.
Fiddelke's tenure is in its early stages, but he and his team have already made a handful of promises worth keeping an eye on. If he can follow through, that will go a long way toward establishing confidence in Target's new CEO.
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Article Sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see ourethics and guidelines.
Target Corporate (1),(4),(5),(9),(17),(19),(20); Yahoo Finance (2),(3),(12),(14); Investing.com (6); Retail Dive (7); The Washington Post (8); WWD (10),(16),(18); Reuters (11); Star Tribune (13); Schaeffer's Research (15)
This article originally appeared on Moneywise.com under the title: 'Target went to hell' — and the man tasked with saving it started there as a summer intern 20 years ago
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
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- Target faces tougher sales backdrop after tax refund boost fades
May 13, 2026 · proactiveinvestors.com
Target Corp (NYSE:TGT) is expected to deliver a strong first quarter but faces a more challenging sales environment heading into the second quarter as the boost from tax refunds fades, Bank of America said, reiterating its Underperform rating on the retailer ahead of its May 20 earnings report. The bank raised its price objective to $110 from $106 and increased its first-quarter earnings per share forecast by 6% to $1.42, incorporating an expectation of 2% comparable sales growth.
- Target (TGT) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth
May 13, 2026
Target (TGT) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended April 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.
The earnings report, which is expected to be released on May 20, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus Estimate
This retailer is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.34 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +3.1%.
Revenues are expected to be $24.28 billion, up 1.8% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions Trend
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.26% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.
Price, Consensus and EPS SurprisePrice, Consensus and EPS Surprise Chart for TGT
Earnings Whisper
Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
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Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Target?
For Target, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +2.35%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #4.
So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Target will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?
While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Target would post earnings of $2.17 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.44, delivering a surprise of +12.44%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times.
Bottom Line
An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Target doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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- Cohen & Steers Income Opportunities REIT, Inc. Acquires Shopping Center in Charlotte, North Carolina
May 13, 2026
NEW YORK, May 13, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Cohen & Steers Income Opportunities REIT, Inc. ("CNSREIT") announced its latest acquisition, a high-quality community shopping center in Charlotte, N.C. The investment was made through a programmatic joint venture with Sterling Organization, a real estate investment firm that specializes in shopping centers in the U.S.
Winslow Bay Commons is a 268,000 square foot shopping center located in Mooresville, N.C., an affluent suburb of Charlotte. With a strong economic base across the finance, technology and healthcare sectors, Charlotte's population is projected to grow faster than the U.S. average (2% annually vs. 0.7%)1. The property is 97% leased, shadow-anchored by Target and includes sector leading retail concepts such as T.J. Maxx, HomeGoods, Dick's Sporting Goods, and Ross Dress for Less.
James S. Corl, Chief Executive Officer of CNSREIT and Head of the Private Real Estate Group at Cohen & Steers, said: "Charlotte ranks highly among our target markets based on its dynamic long term growth profile; so we are quite pleased to plant the CNSREIT flag here. The I-77 corridor on the north side of Charlotte is where a disproportionate amount of this growth is being channeled. Mooresville, where the center is located, experienced population growth of 53% over the last decade and is the third fastest growing city in North Carolina2. Owning the dominant center at a rapidly growing retail node is exactly how we want to be positioned."
CNSREIT is acquiring high-quality properties that seek to generate attractive income and growth potential alongside best-in-class operators, and has an initial focus on well-anchored, necessity-driven shopping centers. Open-air shopping centers are at their highest occupancy level of the past 16 years at 95.7%3, outperforming all other sectors, according to real estate analytics provider CoStar Group.
About CNSREIT. Cohen & Steers Income Opportunities REIT, Inc. is a perpetual-life, non-listed REIT formed to invest primarily in high quality, income-focused, stabilized properties within the United States. CNSREIT is externally managed by Cohen & Steers Capital Management, Inc., a subsidiary of Cohen & Steers, Inc.
About Cohen & Steers. Cohen & Steers is a leading global investment manager specializing in real assets and alternative income, including listed and private real estate, preferred securities, infrastructure, resource equities, commodities, as well as multi-strategy solutions. Founded in 1986, the firm is headquartered in New York City, with offices in London, Dublin, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Singapore.
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About Sterling Organization. Sterling Organization is a vertically integrated private equity real estate firm whose national platform is focused on investing in retail and distribution real estate assets across the risk spectrum in major markets within the United States. The firm has over $2B of assets under management across the U.S., including more than 13 million square feet of primarily retail real estate. Sterling Organization, with offices across the nation, is headquartered in West Palm Beach, FL.
Forward-Looking Statements This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may," "will," "expect," "intend," "anticipate," "estimate," "believe," "continue," "identified" or other similar words or the negatives thereof. These may include CNSREIT's financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements about plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, statements with respect to acquisitions, statements regarding future performance and statements regarding identified but not yet closed acquisitions. Such forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and there are or may be important factors that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated in such statements. CNSREIT believes these factors also include but are not limited to those described under the section entitled "Risk Factors" in the prospectus, as amended and supplemented from time to time, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), which is accessible on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. These factors should not be construed as exhaustive and should be read in conjunction with the other cautionary statements that are included in this document. Except as otherwise required by federal securities laws, CNSREIT undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.
1 Source: CoStar, as of December 2025
2 ACS Community Survey 2025
3 Source: CoStar, as of December 2025Cision
View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cohen--steers-income-opportunities-reit-inc-acquires-shopping-center-in-charlotte-north-carolina-302770478.html
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- KeyBanc Cuts On Holding Price Target to $43: Tariff Concerns Pressure the Growth Story
May 13, 2026 · 247wallst.com
An analyst firm is stepping back on price, but not on conviction. KeyBanc lowered its price target on On Holding to $43 from $58 while keeping its Overweight rating, framing the move as a recalibration tied to tariff exposure rather than a break in the long-term growth thesis.
- BofA Hikes Coherent Price Target to $400 on $1.7 Trillion AI Data Center Forecast
May 13, 2026 · 247wallst.com
Bank of America just nudged its target on Coherent (NYSE:COHR | COHR Price Prediction) stock higher, lifting the price target to $400 from $365 while maintaining a Neutral rating.
- Canaccord Raises C3.ai Price Target as Tom Siebel Returns to the CEO Seat
May 13, 2026 · 247wallst.com
Shares of C3.ai (NYSE:AI | AI Price Prediction) caught a modest vote of confidence from Canaccord Genuity on May 13, as the firm raised its price target to $8 from $7 while keeping a Hold rating.
- BofA Cuts Hims & Hers Price Target as Mixed Quarter Resets Street Expectations
May 13, 2026 · 247wallst.com
Hims & Hers Health (NYSE:HIMS) absorbed another analyst downgrade.
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May 13, 2026 · 247wallst.com
Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) stock just received its second analyst price target raise in the same week.
