- TMX Group Limited (X:CA) Shareholder/Analyst Call Prepared Remarks Transcript
May 5, 2026 · seekingalpha.com
TMX Group Limited (X:CA) Shareholder/Analyst Call Prepared Remarks Transcript
- TMX Group Limited (X:CA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
May 5, 2026 · seekingalpha.com
TMX Group Limited (X:CA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- ‘American industry is winning’: White House touts factory boom — how investors can ride the reshoring wave
Apr 29, 2026
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American manufacturing is back, and it's better than ever. In a new White House press release (1), officials point to a string of improving indicators: The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index has expanded for three consecutive months, hitting its strongest level since 2022, while production has climbed for five straight months as factories ramp up output (2).
"The numbers don't lie," the release states, arguing "the manufacturing sector is growing as key indicators show broad strength" after what it characterizes as years of decline.
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But the bigger story isn't just momentum. It's scale.
The White House is framing the shift as "the largest reshoring wave in American history," with companies investing trillions to bring production back to U.S. soil.
Apple is committing $600 billion to U.S. manufacturing over the next four years, while NVIDIA has pledged $500 billion to produce AI chips and infrastructure entirely in the United States.
Pharmaceutical giants are also joining the push, with companies like Johnson & Johnson , AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb collectively committing tens of billions to expand domestic production.
Industry leaders are echoing that optimism.
"Customers are increasingly focused on securing dependable domestic supply they can count on over the long term," said David Burritt, CEO of U.S. Steel.
For investors, though, the question is whether this so-called "Trump effect" is actually creating opportunities or just headlines.
What is the 'Trump effect'?
Inarguably, the term has seen quite a few uses — socially, internationally and economically. For example, according to the British Journal of Political Science, one social application is the emboldening of prejudiced individuals to express racial bigotry (3). Meanwhile, abroad, it refers to a popularity boost for left-of-center parties in democracies such as Canada and Australia (4).
But to the White House, the "Trump effect" refers to deliberate policy shifts aimed at bringing production back to America through tariffs, trade enforcement and incentives for domestic investment.
Story Continues
The main economic argument? The reshoring of industry and manufacturing to U.S. soil is good for jobs and GDP.
Officials point to what they describe as "the largest reshoring wave in American history," with companies "investing trillions to build and expand here at home."
Manufacturing tends to move in cycles, and several of the forces driving investment today, including supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions and the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, were already in motion before the current administration.
In other words, the "Trump effect" may be part policy, part momentum, part branding.
The distinction matters here because in markets, a narrative alone can move money. Spectra Markets explains that there is a "dynamic interplay between price and narrative" in which "the story drives the price, and the price drives the story," making it difficult to determine which is driving the movement (5).
So when policymakers signal support for reshoring, tariffs or large-scale investment, capital can start to flow — with markets quickly reacting to policy expectations.
From tax cuts and trade policy to stimulus and industrial spending, even the anticipation or hope of supportive conditions has been enough to push equities higher (6).
Of course, that doesn't mean every market rally is justified (or exempt from correction), but it can create opportunity.
Read More: Robert Kiyosaki warned of a 'Greater Depression' — with millions of Americans going poor. Was he right?
Start with the market
If capital does indeed roar back into U.S. industries, one of the simplest ways to position yourself is to own the companies at the center of it.
Many of the firms highlighted in the White House release are already publicly traded, including Apple and NVIDIA, as well as major pharmaceutical and industrial players (7). They include:
U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN) Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) GSK (NYSE: GSK) GlobalFoundries (NASDAQ: GFS) Stellantis (NYSE: STLA)
Where it gets tricky is that not every company is going to benefit equally, and certainly not every one will really last.
Some firms are already priced for perfection. Others may be positioned to gain from supply chain shifts, infrastructure buildout or long-term industrial demand. Those companies don't necessarily share in the benefits of dominating headlines, but are worth monitoring.
That's where having a research edge can make all the difference.
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Their team spends hundreds of hours analyzing financial data and market trends to deliver stock and crypto reports straight to your inbox.
That means instead of trying to interpret headlines or political narratives on your own, you can focus on where the data is pointing and make more informed decisions about stocks and ETFs.
Moby's reports are easy to understand and can help you become a smarter investor in just five minutes. And if it's not the right fit, there's a 30-day money-back guarantee.
The real winners may not be who you think
In times of economic shifts, the biggest gains don't always go to the companies making headlines. They can also go to the infrastructure that supports them. This is called pick-and-shovel investing (8).
If manufacturers are truly ramping up domestic production, then that buildout's going to require more than just capital. It's going to need space, physical infrastructure and time.
Factores need land. Supply chains need warehouses. AI infrastructure needs data centers.
That's where industrial real estate enters the picture.
Investing in industrial real estate
Historically, individual investors haven't had many options to access high-quality private-market real estate — including industrial properties.
In times of volatility, they often benefit from renters "trading down" from higher-cost options, while limited new supply keeps vacancies in check. Low tenant turnover and long leases can also lead to consistent net operating income and stable, robust cash flow for Limited Partner investors.
Now, crowdfunding platforms have opened access to a broader demographic of retail investors, but outcomes often depend on factors such as deal structure, platform incentives and the sponsor's expertise.
That's when it can pay to work with experts, especially if you're an investor with capital on hand.
Lightstone DIRECT's direct-to-investor model ensures a high degree of alignment between individual investors and a vertically-integrated, institutional owner-operator — a sophisticated and streamlined option for individual investors looking to diversify into private-market real estate.
With Lightstone DIRECT, accredited individuals can access the same multifamily and industrial assets Lightstone pursues with its own capital, with minimum investments starting at $100,000.
If companies continue shifting operations back to the U.S., demand for these types of assets could increase.
Not ready for the industrial revolution? You have options
Of course, capital and accreditation are not something that every investor has to spare.
For those looking for a more accessible real estate entry point, you can tap into this market by investing in shares of vacation homes or rental properties through Arrived.
You can get started with as little as $100 for access to shares of SEC-qualified investments in rental homes and vacation properties. No need to buy or manage an entire property yourself.
Backed by investors like Jeff Bezos, Arrived is designed to make real estate investing more accessible, allowing both accredited and non-accredited investors to add income-generating properties to their portfolios. Arrived can also help you scale up your real estate investing over time, with access to a secondary market.
The platform offers a curated selection of properties chosen for their income and appreciation potential, and you can browse their full list of vetted properties to find an investment that fits your goals.
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Article Sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see ourethics and guidelines.
The White House (1),(7); Institute for Supply Management (2); Cambridge University Press (3); Policy Magazine (4); Spectra Markets (5); U.S. Bank (6); Investopedia (8)
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
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- TMX Group (TSX:X) Is Up 5.9% After Launching Montréal-Listed Bank Credit Index Futures – Has The Bull Case Changed?
Apr 17, 2026
On April 8, 2026, TMX Group’s Montréal Exchange launched the FTSE Canada Bank Credit Index Futures (BCS), an exchange-traded contract designed to help investors manage Canadian bank credit risk more efficiently. This first-of-its-kind Canadian credit derivatives product could deepen derivatives activity by offering a transparent, scalable tool that complements existing fixed income instruments and simplifies credit risk transfer. Next, we’ll examine how the launch of exchange-traded bank credit index futures could influence TMX Group’s derivatives-led earnings narrative.
Capitalize on the AI infrastructure supercycle with our selection of the 38 best 'picks and shovels' of the AI gold rush converting record-breaking demand into massive cash flow.
TMX Group Investment Narrative Recap
To own TMX Group, you need to be comfortable with a business that earns most of its money from trading, listings and related services, and is trying to deepen its derivatives franchise. The Montréal Exchange’s new FTSE Canada Bank Credit Index Futures product reinforces that derivatives-led story, but does not materially change the near term focus on stabilizing earnings after weaker 2025 profitability or the ongoing risk from intensifying competition among global exchanges.
The recent decision to launch a normal course issuer bid for up to 2,800,000 shares, alongside a higher C$0.24 dividend, frames the BCS launch within a broader pattern of returning cash to shareholders while investing in growth initiatives. For investors, the key question is whether incremental products like bank credit index futures can support earnings over time without further pressuring margins that already declined year on year.
However, investors should also be aware that rising operating expenses and signs of margin pressure could...
Read the full narrative on TMX Group (it's free!)
TMX Group’s narrative projects CA$2.0 billion revenue and CA$692.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 7.3% yearly revenue growth and a CA$270.5 million earnings increase from CA$422.0 million today.
Uncover how TMX Group's forecasts yield a CA$62.62 fair value, a 17% upside to its current price.
Exploring Other PerspectivesTSX:X 1-Year Stock Price Chart
Five members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see TMX Group’s fair value between C$42.05 and C$62.63, highlighting very different expectations. Set those views against the risk that higher costs and competitive pressure could limit how much the new derivatives product contributes to overall performance and you get a wide range of possible outcomes that are worth comparing.
Story Continues
Explore 5 other fair value estimates on TMX Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 17% more than the current price!
Reach Your Own Conclusion
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
A great starting point for your TMX Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision. Our free TMX Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate TMX Group's overall financial health at a glance.
No Opportunity In TMX Group?
Opportunities like this don't last. These are today's most promising picks. Check them out now:
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include X.TO.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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- TMX Group Limited (TSE:X) Receives C$60.67 Average Price Target from Brokerages
Apr 3, 2026 · defenseworld.net
TMX Group Limited (TSE: X - Get Free Report) has been given an average rating of "Moderate Buy" by the nine analysts that are presently covering the stock, Marketbeat.com reports. Four equities research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating, four have given a buy rating and one has given a strong buy rating
- TMX Group (TSX:X) Valuation Check As Shares Lag Recent Highs
Apr 2, 2026
Track your investments for FREE with Simply Wall St, the portfolio command center trusted by over 7 million individual investors worldwide.
Recent share performance context
TMX Group (TSX:X) has drawn attention after a mixed stretch for the share price, with a small 1 day decline, a modest gain over the past week and month, and a negative move over the past 3 months.
See our latest analysis for TMX Group.
At around CA$48.94, TMX Group’s recent 1 month share price return of 3.97% contrasts with a 6.30% decline over 3 months and a 4.92% year to date decline, while the 5 year total shareholder return of 103.26% points to a stronger long term record.
If you are weighing TMX Group against other opportunities, now can be a good moment to widen the lens and check out 2 top founder-led companies
So with TMX Group trading at about CA$48.94, lagging year to date but carrying a 3 year total return close to 89% and with analyst targets implying higher levels, is this a window of value, or is future growth already priced in?
Most Popular Narrative: 1.9% Undervalued
According to one of the most followed narratives on TMX Group, a fair value of about CA$49.90 sits slightly above the recent CA$48.94 close. This helps frame today’s modest discount in context.
TMX Group is a stable, high-quality compounder with dependable cash flows, a wide moat, and disciplined management. It will not deliver explosive returns, but it offers consistent value creation, resilience, and a growing stream of recurring data-driven revenue.
Read the complete narrative.
Curious what sits behind that fair value call? The narrative leans heavily on recurring data revenue, robust margins, and a measured earnings growth path that extends well beyond the next few quarters.
Result: Fair Value of CA$49.90 (ABOUT RIGHT)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this story can break if trading and IPO activity stay muted for longer, or if the integration of Trayport and VettaFi delivers weaker than expected benefits.
Find out about the key risks to this TMX Group narrative.
Another valuation lens: earnings multiple sends a different signal
The narrative fair value of about CA$49.90 points to TMX Group trading roughly in line with that view. However, its current P/E of 32.8x is far above the Canadian Capital Markets industry at 9.3x, the peer average at 21.3x, and even an estimated fair ratio of 22.9x. This suggests a rich valuation and raises the question of how much optimism is already in the price.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Story Continues
TSX:X P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026
Next Steps
With mixed signals on value and expectations, it helps to look past the headlines and check the underlying data yourself. To see what investors are optimistic about, take a closer look at the 3 key rewards
Looking for more investment ideas?
If TMX Group is on your radar, do not stop there. Casting a wider net across quality ideas can sharpen your portfolio and reveal opportunities you might otherwise miss.
Target resilient opportunities by using the 7 resilient stocks with low risk scores to focus on companies with steadier risk profiles and more durable business models. Pursue quality at a potential discount with the 8 high quality undervalued stocks and see which stocks combine strong fundamentals with prices that may not fully reflect them. Build a foundation of income ideas through the 6 dividend fortresses and spot companies offering higher yields alongside support from their underlying financials.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include X.TO.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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- TMX Group Conference: Execs Tout 2026 Momentum, AI Opportunity, Tokenization and AlphaX US Growth
Mar 30, 2026 · defenseworld.net
TMX Group (TSE: X) executives said the company has started 2026 with momentum across capital formation, markets, and recurring-revenue data and analytics businesses, while positioning the organization to benefit from emerging themes such as artificial intelligence and tokenization. Speaking with National Bank Financial equity research analyst Jaeme Gloyn, David Arnold, TMX Group's chief financial officer, and
- SpaceX's listing stirs up social media hype, ticker bets
Mar 27, 2026
By Niket Nishant and Shashwat Chauhan
March 27 (Reuters) - From rocket launches drawing millions of YouTube views to social media frenzy over its potential listing, SpaceX's debut is shaping up to be a landmark moment for Wall Street.
Traders are betting thousands of dollars on the company's ticker and speculating over its entry into the most elite club of U.S. companies, giving the world's most valuable startup a level of social media buzz that only a few companies enjoy, especially when they are yet to file their IPO paperwork.
On Polymarket, users were betting on topics including the company's targeted valuation, the exchange it will list on and the ticker its shares would trade under. The combined trading volume of such bets exceeded more than $15.2 million, as of Friday.
Odds on the prediction markets platform put a 25% chance on SpaceX choosing the letter "X" as its ticker, a sharp drop from 60% a month ago.
The single-letter ticker is up for grabs after U.S. Steel, which reportedly held it for over a century, delisted from the New York Stock Exchange after being bought by Japan's Nippon Steel last year.
Musk's social media platform is also called X after a rebrand from Twitter in 2023.
Tuttle Capital Management CEO Matthew Tuttle said a better alternative would be "SPCX" - also the ticker of an exchange traded fund his company manages.
Tuttle has indicated openness to selling the SPCX symbol to SpaceX.
"I've not heard from Elon, but my phone line is still open and I'm holding out hope that I get a call," he said.
Apart from X, other potential options floated on Polymarket include "SPAX" and the risqué, "SEX". However, users see a roughly 70% probability that the company chooses a different ticker altogether.
FROM MAGNIFICENT SEVEN TO SUPER EIGHT?
SpaceX is targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion in its listing, which would make it the sixth biggest U.S. company by market capitalization. Tesla and Meta Platforms could fall behind, with market valuations of $1.4 trillion and $1.39 trillion, respectively.
That has fueled speculation over whether the company's market debut will force a rethink of the so-called "Magnificent Seven", a group of some of the most valuable U.S. companies.
"When the company does finally go public, the Magnificent Seven will clearly expand. They'll probably call it the Magnificent Eight, the Super Eight or some new acronym," said Todd Schoenberger, chief investment officer at CrossCheck Management.
Story Continues
To capitalize on his popularity among retail investors, CEO Elon Musk is also discussing allocating as much as 30% of the IPO to individual investors, at least three times the usual retail slice, Reuters reported.
"The retail investor plays a very significant role when you have a company like SpaceX that's coming public. Most people would say yes to the opportunity of investing in Elon Musk's space company," said Jonathan Corpina, senior managing partner for Meridian Equity Partners.
(Reporting by Niket Nishant and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath)
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- TMX Group Limited (X:CA) Presents at 24th Annual Financial Services Conference Transcript
Mar 25, 2026 · seekingalpha.com
TMX Group Limited (X:CA) Presents at 24th Annual Financial Services Conference Transcript
- Is TMX Group (TSX:X) Pricing Look Stretched After Recent Share Price Rebound?
Mar 19, 2026
Never miss an important update on your stock portfolio and cut through the noise. Over 7 million investors trust Simply Wall St to stay informed where it matters for FREE.
If you are wondering whether TMX Group is priced attractively right now, the recent share performance gives you a useful starting point but not the full story on value. The stock last closed at C$49.43, with returns of 3.8% over 7 days and 9.1% over 30 days, while the 1 year return sits at a 1.6% decline and the 3 and 5 year returns are 95.1% and 112.1% respectively. Recent coverage has focused on TMX Group's role as a core part of Canada's capital markets infrastructure, including its trading platforms and listings services, as investors reassess how these operations fit into their portfolios. This context is important when weighing what the recent share price moves might be telling you about risk and opportunity. TMX Group currently has a value score of 1 out of 6. The rest of this article will walk through how different valuation approaches assess the stock, and then finish with a way to look beyond the usual methods to get a fuller view of value.
TMX Group scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
Approach 1: TMX Group Excess Returns Analysis
The Excess Returns model looks at whether TMX Group is earning more on its equity base than the return that shareholders require, then capitalizes that surplus value into an intrinsic share price.
For TMX Group, the starting point is a book value of CA$17.10 per share and a stable earnings figure of CA$2.38 per share, based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 4 analysts. That translates into an average Return on Equity of 12.77% on a stable book value of CA$18.62 per share, which comes from estimates by 2 analysts.
The model compares this to a cost of equity of CA$1.36 per share. After that charge, the implied excess return is CA$1.01 per share. Simply Wall St aggregates those excess earnings over time to arrive at an intrinsic value of CA$41.40 per share using this approach.
Against the recent share price of CA$49.43, the Excess Returns valuation suggests the stock is about 19.4% overvalued based on current inputs.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Excess Returns analysis suggests TMX Group may be overvalued by 19.4%. Discover 6 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.X Discounted Cash Flow as at Mar 2026
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for TMX Group.
Story Continues
Approach 2: TMX Group Price vs Earnings
For a profitable company like TMX Group, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings. Investors generally accept paying higher P/E multiples when they see stronger growth potential or lower perceived risk, and lower P/E multiples when growth prospects or risk profiles look less attractive.
TMX Group is currently trading on a P/E of 33.08x. That sits above the Capital Markets industry average P/E of 8.83x and also above the peer group average of 21.02x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework estimates what a more tailored P/E might look like, given TMX Group’s earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and specific risks, and arrives at a Fair Ratio of 18.12x.
This Fair Ratio is designed to be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the industry, because it adjusts for company specific qualities rather than assuming all Capital Markets stocks deserve the same multiple. Comparing the Fair Ratio of 18.12x with the current P/E of 33.08x indicates that TMX Group is trading above the level suggested by these fundamentals.
Result: OVERVALUEDTSX:X P/E Ratio as at Mar 2026
P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 3 top founder-led companies.
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your TMX Group Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so Narratives on Simply Wall St give you a clear story that ties your view of TMX Group’s business to a forecast for revenue, earnings and margins, then into a fair value that you can compare with today’s price, all within an easy to use Community page that updates as news or earnings arrive.
For TMX Group, one investor Narrative on the platform sets a fair value close to CA$41.30 while another points to about CA$64.40. This shows how two people can study the same company and, based on their own assumptions, arrive at very different fair values and therefore different decisions on whether the current price looks attractive or stretched.
Do you think there's more to the story for TMX Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!TSX:X 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include X.TO.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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